One-year progression of moderate asymptomatic carotid stenosis predicts the risk of vascular events.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: This study aimed at evaluating whether ultrasound monitoring of moderate asymptomatic carotid stenosis may help in identifying subjects at high risk for vascular events. METHODS: We included 523 subjects with unilateral asymptomatic carotid stenosis of 50% to 69%. Follow-up carotid ultrasound was performed within 12 months from inclusion to detect the frequency and degree of stenosis progression. Subjects were prospectively evaluated for a median period of 42 months (interquartile range, 38-45) after a second ultrasound evaluation. Outcome measures were any stroke and transient ischemic attack, myocardial infarction, and death. RESULTS: Carotid stenosis progression was associated with the occurrence of vascular events (hazard ratio, 21.57; 95% confidence interval, 11.81-39.39; P<0.001). During follow-up, 96.7% of subjects without progressive carotid stenosis remained free from vascular events. Among patients with progressive stenosis, 53.7% experienced a vascular event and 27.1% experienced an ipsilateral stroke. CONCLUSIONS: One-year moderate asymptomatic carotid stenosis progression is related to higher risk of vascular events, including ipsilateral stroke.