A new method for wind speed forecasting based on copula theory.

ABSTRACT

How to determine representative wind speed is crucial in wind resource assessment. Accurate wind resource assessments are important to wind farms development. Linear regressions are usually used to obtain the representative wind speed. However, terrain flexibility of wind farm and long distance between wind speed sites often lead to low correlation. In this study, copula method is used to determine the representative year's wind speed in wind farm by interpreting the interaction of the local wind farm and the meteorological station. The result shows that the method proposed here can not only determine the relationship between the local anemometric tower and nearby meteorological station through Kendall's tau, but also determine the joint distribution without assuming the variables to be independent. Moreover, the representative wind data can be obtained by the conditional distribution much more reasonably. We hope this study could provide scientific reference for accurate wind resource assessments.