Multicentre derivation and validation of a prognostic scoring system for mortality assessment in HIV-infected patients with talaromycosis.

BACKGROUND: Although the widespread use of modern antiretroviral therapy (ART) has reduced the incidence of talaromycosis in people living with HIV, mortality remains as high as 20% in this population, even after appropriate antifungal treatment. OBJECTIVES: The objective of our study was to develop a risk assessment system for HIV-infected patients with comorbid talaromycosis, in order to provide these patients with appropriate, effective and potentially life-saving interventions at an early stage of their illness. PATIENTS/METHODS: This was a multicentre, retrospective cohort study conducted in China. We built a predictive model based on data from 11 hospitals, and a validated model using the data of 1 hospital located in an endemic area. RESULTS: Forward stepwise multivariate statistical calculations indicated that age, aspartate aminotransferase/alanine transaminase ratio and albumin levels, and BUN levels were valid, independent predictors of the risk of death in HIV-infected patients with talaromycosis. Our developed and validated risk scoring system is effective for the identification of HIV-infected patients with talaromycosis at high risk of death at hospital admission (p < .001; AUC = 0.860). In our study, our risk prediction model provided functional and robust discrimination in the validation cohort (p < .001; AUC = 0.793). CONCLUSION: The prognostic scoring system for mortality assessment developed in the present study is an easy-to-use clinical tool designed to accurately assist clinicians in identifying high-risk patients with talaromycosis.