Development and validation of a prediction model for frailty in breast cancer patients with extended survival.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer (BC) patients with extended survival show a higher incidence of frailty. This study aimed to develop and validate a novel model combining sociodemographic factors (SF) and disease-related factors (DRF) to identify frailty in BC patients with extended survival. METHODS: This cross-sectional study examined data from 1167 patients admitted to a large urban academic medical centre. Three types of predictive models were constructed in the training set (817 patients) the SF model, the DRF model, and the SF + DRF model (combined model). The model performance and effectiveness were assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration plots and decision curves analysis (DCA). Then the model was subsequently validated on the validation set. RESULTS: The incidence of frailty in BC patients with extended survival was 35.8%. We identified six independent risk factors including age, health status, chemotherapy, endocrine therapy, number of comorbidities and oral medications. Ultimately, we constructed an optimal model (combined model C) for frailty. The predictive model showed significantly high discriminative accuracy in the training set AUC 0.754, (95% CI, 0.719-0.789; sensitivity 76.8%, specificity 62.2%) and validation set AUC 0.805, (95% CI, 0.76-0.85), sensitivity 60.8%, specificity 87.1%) respectively. A prediction nomogram was constructed for the training and validation sets. Calibration and DCA were performed, which indicated that the clinical model presented satisfactory calibration and clinical utility. Ultimately, we implemented the prediction model into a mobile-friendly web application that provides an accurate and individualized prediction for BC. CONCLUSIONS: The present study demonstrated that the prevalence of frailty in BC patients with extended survival was 35.8%. We developed a novel model for screening frailty, which may provide evidence for frailty screening and prevention.