Development and internal validation of a clinical prediction model for spontaneous abortion risk in early pregnancy
Clinics
; 79: 100318, 2024. tab, graf
Article
em En
|
LILACS-Express
| LILACS
| ID: biblio-1528429
Biblioteca responsável:
BR1.1
ABSTRACT
Abstract Objective:
This study aimed to develop and internally validate a prediction model for estimating the risk of spontaneous abortion in early pregnancy.Methods:
This prospective cohort study included 9,895 pregnant women who received prenatal care at a maternal health facility in China from January 2021 to December 2022. Data on demographics, medical history, lifestyle factors, and mental health were collected. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to develop the prediction model with spontaneous abortion as the outcome. The model was internally validated using bootstrapping techniques, and its discrimination and calibration were assessed.Results:
The spontaneous abortion rate was 5.95% (589/9,895) 1. The final prediction model included nine variables maternal age, history of embryonic arrest, thyroid dysfunction, polycystic ovary syndrome, assisted reproduction, exposure to pollution, recent home renovation, depression score, and stress score 1. The model showed good discrimination with a C-statistic of 0.88 (95% CI 0.87‒0.90) 1, and its calibration was adequate based on the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p = 0.27).Conclusions:
The prediction model demonstrated good performance in estimating spontaneous abortion risk in early pregnancy based on demographic, clinical, and psychosocial factors. Further external validation is recommended before clinical application.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
LILACS
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
/
Observational_studies
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Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Clinics
Assunto da revista:
MEDICINA
Ano de publicação:
2024
Tipo de documento:
Article
/
Project document
País de afiliação:
China