"I couldn't have seen it coming": the impact of negative self-relevant outcomes on retrospections about foreseeability.
Memory
; 11(4-5): 443-54, 2003.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-14562873
ABSTRACT
We examined a phenomenon related to hindsight bias, specifically, retrospective judgements about the foreseeability of an outcome. We predicted that negative, self-relevant outcomes would be judged as less foreseeable by the recipient of the outcome than by others, unlike either positive outcomes or outcomes that are not self-relevant. In the context of a "stock market decision-making game", the hypothetical stock selected by one of two players showed an extreme increase or decrease. As predicted, the player who received an extreme negative outcome reported that this outcome was less foreseeable than did the opponent and an observer, for whom the outcome was less self-relevant. For no other kind of outcome was there a difference between the recipient of an outcome, the opponent, and the observer. The findings have several implications, including the possibility that hindsight bias should be considered as a special case of retrospective foreseeability.
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Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Rememoração Mental
/
Julgamento
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
Limite:
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Memory
Assunto da revista:
PSICOLOGIA
Ano de publicação:
2003
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Estados Unidos