Seasonal patterns in time series of pertussis.
Epidemiol Infect
; 137(10): 1388-95, 2009 Oct.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-19327200
ABSTRACT
To gain insight into pertussis disease dynamics, we studied age-specific long-term periodicity and seasonality of pertussis in The Netherlands. Hierarchical time-series models were used to analyse the monthly reported pertussis incidence in January 1996-June 2006 by age group. The incidence of pertussis showed a slightly increasing long-term trend with highest incidence rates seen in 1996, 1999, 2001 and 2004. For all age groups the annual peak incidence was found in August, except for the 13-18 years age group where the peak occurred in November. Monthly trends in adults showed high correlation with trends in age groups 0-4 years (0.94) and 5-12 years (0.92). We found no evidence for a relationship between annual rises in pertussis and the opening of schools. Concurrent annual fluctuations of pertussis incidence in adults and infants suggest frequent transmission within and between these age groups. Studying trends offers insight into transmission dynamics and may facilitate decisions on future vaccination strategies.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Estações do Ano
/
Coqueluche
Tipo de estudo:
Incidence_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
Limite:
Adolescent
/
Adult
/
Aged
/
Aged80
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Child
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Child, preschool
/
Female
/
Humans
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Infant
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Male
País/Região como assunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Epidemiol Infect
Assunto da revista:
DOENCAS TRANSMISSIVEIS
/
EPIDEMIOLOGIA
Ano de publicação:
2009
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Holanda