Determination of areas with the most significant shift in persistence of pests in Europe under climate change.
Pest Manag Sci
; 70(5): 708-15, 2014 May.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-23901033
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
This study aimed to estimate the impact of climate change on the ranges of crop pest species in Europe. The organisms included in the study were species from the family Tortricidae (Cydia pomonella, Lobesia botrana) and the family Pyralidae (Ostrinia nubilalis), Chrysomelidae beetles (Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Oulema melanopus) and species from the family Aphididae (Ropalosiphum padi, Sitobion avenae). Climate conditions in the year 2055 were simulated using a subset of five representative global circulation models. Model simulations using these climate change scenarios showed significant shifts in the climatic niches of the species in this study.RESULTS:
For Central Europe, the models predicted a shift in the ranges of pest species to higher altitudes and increases in the number of generations (NG) of the pests. In contrast, in the southern regions of Europe, the NG is likely to decrease owing to insufficient humidity. The ranges of species are likely to shift to the north.CONCLUSION:
Based on the ensemble-scenario mean for 2055, a climate-driven northward shift of between 3° N (O. nubilalis) and 11° N (L. botrana) is expected. The areas that are most sensitive to experiencing a significant increase in climate suitability for future pest persistence were identified. These areas include Central Europe, the higher altitudes of the Alps and Carpathians and areas above 55° N.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Afídeos
/
Besouros
/
Mudança Climática
/
Modelos Teóricos
/
Mariposas
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
Limite:
Animals
País/Região como assunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Pest Manag Sci
Assunto da revista:
TOXICOLOGIA
Ano de publicação:
2014
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
República Tcheca