[A multiple regression formula for the prediction of thyroid microcarcinoma].

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To establish a quantitative analysis formula for the prediction of thyroid microcarcinoma and decide the cut-off values for the recommendation of ultrasound-guided biopsy. METHODS: The ultrasound characteristics of 830 subcentimeter thyroid nodules were retrospectively analyzed based on pathological results in this study. A diagnostic formula was developed using multivariate binary Logistic regression with the cut-off values for the recommendation of biopsy. The diagnostic values of each feature and the formula were evaluated. RESULTS: The most suspicious ultrasound characteristics for subcentimeter thyroid nodules were solid echostructure (OR=41.97), microlobulated margin (OR=25.89), hypoechoic echogenicity(OR=10.36), no halo (OR=8.38), irregular margin (OR=4.26), taller than wide (OR=2.71), microcalcification (OR=1.92), and macrocalcification (OR=1.28). The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of the formula were 90.9%, 54.0%, and 72.5%, respectively. CONCLUSION: This multiple regression formula is an objective tool for the evaluation of thyroid microcarcinoma, which can provide the cutoff values for the ultrasound guided biopsy.