Annual costs of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Finland during 1996-2006 and a prediction model for 2007-2030.

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major burden for the health care system, but the exact costs are difficult to estimate and there are insufficient data available on past and future time trends of COPD-related costs. AIMS: The aim of the study was to calculate COPD-related costs in Finland during the years 1996-2006 and estimate future costs for the years 2007-2030. METHODS: COPD-related direct and indirect costs in the public health care sector of the whole of Finland during the years 1996-2006 were retrieved from national registers. In addition, we made a mathematical prediction model on COPD costs for the years 2007-2030 on the basis of population projection and changes in smoking habits. RESULTS: The total annual COPD-related costs amounted to about 100-110 million Euros in 1996-2006, with no obvious change, but there was a slight decrease in direct costs and an increase in indirect costs during these years. The estimation model predicted a 60% increase up to 166 million Euros in COPD-related annual costs by the year 2030. This is caused almost entirely by an increase in direct health care costs that reflect the predicted ageing of the Finnish population, as older age is a significant factor that increases the need for hospitalisation. CONCLUSIONS: The total annual COPD-related costs in Finland have been stable during the years 1996-2006, but if management strategies are not changed a significant increase in direct costs is expected by the year 2030 due to ageing of the population.