The c-index is not proper for the evaluation of $t$-year predicted risks.
Biostatistics
; 20(2): 347-357, 2019 04 01.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-29462286
ABSTRACT
We show that the widely used concordance index for time to event outcome is not proper when interest is in predicting a $t$-year risk of an event, for example 10-year mortality. In the situation with a fixed prediction horizon, the concordance index can be higher for a misspecified model than for a correctly specified model. Impropriety happens because the concordance index assesses the order of the event times and not the order of the event status at the prediction horizon. The time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve does not have this problem and is proper in this context.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Bioestatística
/
Modelos Estatísticos
/
Medição de Risco
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Biostatistics
Ano de publicação:
2019
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Dinamarca