IBD prevalence in Lothian, Scotland, derived by capture-recapture methodology.
Gut
; 68(11): 1953-1960, 2019 11.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-31300515
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE:
IBD prevalence is estimated to be rising, but no detailed, recent UK data are available. The last reported prevalence estimate in the UK was 0.40% in 2003. We aimed to establish the current, and project future, prevalence in Lothian, Scotland.DESIGN:
We conducted an all-age multiparameter search strategy using inpatient IBD international classification of disease (ICD-10) coding (K50/51)(1997-2018), IBD pathology coding (1990-2018), primary and secondary care prescribing data (2009-2018) and a paediatric registry, (1997-2018) to identify 'possible' IBD cases up to 31/08/2018. Diagnoses were manually confirmed through electronic health record review as per Lennard-Jones/Porto criteria. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regression was applied to forecast prevalence to 01/08/2028.RESULTS:
In total, 24 601 possible IBD cases were identified of which 10 499 were true positives. The point prevalence for IBD in Lothian on 31/08/2018 was 784/100 000 (UC 432/100 000, Crohn's disease 284/100 000 and IBD unclassified (IBDU) 68/100 000). Capture-recapture methods identified an additional 427 'missed' cases (95% CI 383 to 477) resulting in a 'true' prevalence of 832/100 000 (95% CI 827 to 837).Prevalence increased by 4.3% per year between 2008 and 2018 (95% CI +3.7 to +4.9%, p<0.0001). ARIMA modelling projected a point prevalence on 01/08/2028 of 1.02% (95% CI 0.97% to 1.07%) that will affect an estimated 1.53% (95% CI 1.37% to 1.69%) of those >80 years of age.CONCLUSIONS:
We report a rigorously validated IBD cohort with all-age point prevalence on 31/08/2018 of 1 in 125, one of the highest worldwide.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Doenças Inflamatórias Intestinais
Tipo de estudo:
Diagnostic_studies
/
Incidence_studies
/
Prevalence_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Adolescent
/
Adult
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Aged
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Aged80
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Child
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Child, preschool
/
Female
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Humans
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Infant
/
Male
País/Região como assunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Gut
Ano de publicação:
2019
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Reino Unido