Relative effect of milk constituents on fertility performance of milk-recorded, spring-calving dairy cows in Ireland.

Several studies have reported associations between milk composition data and fertility performance. However, no work to date has estimated the effect of milk constituents on fertility performance in cows with low milk constituent concentrations. The objective of this study was to assess the association between milk constituents, animal characteristics, and time from mating start date (MSD) to conception using survival analysis. Furthermore, we aimed to investigate the relative effect of each variable by predicting median times to conception for animals with different combinations of characteristics and milk compositions. The final data set consisted of 87,227 cow lactation records from 64,519 cows in 2,049 herds with calving dates from 2010 to 2013. Milk recording data from each lactation were used, including test day recordings at 0 to 30, 31 to 60, and 61 to 90 d in milk (DIM). The analysis was limited to spring-calving cows (i.e., animals calving from January to May inclusive). Mating start date was determined for each unique herd in each year. A cow-specific MSD (MSDcow) was defined taking into consideration the MSD for each herd and the calving date and a minimum calving to insemination interval of each herd year. The conception date for each cow was estimated using the subsequent calving date. Cows with no subsequent calving date were assumed not to have conceived. Time from MSDcow to approximate conception date was analyzed using survival analysis. Cox proportional hazard models were constructed for each of the 3 recording windows: 0 to 30, 31 to 60, and 61 to 90 DIM. A fourth model was used to assess the dynamics of milk composition over the 3 windows. To investigate the effect of these variables, model outputs were used to create parametric accelerated failure time models to predict median survival times for animals at the 10th and 90th percentiles of the variable of interest but otherwise identical across the rest of the variables. Results demonstrated that fertility breeding subindex had the largest effect on time from MSDcow to conception, with an additional 62 d open for those in the 10th percentile versus those in the 90th percentile. Of the milk constituents, milk lactose concentration had the greatest effect on MSD to conception, particularly when measured from 0 to 30 DIM. An additional 10 d open resulted from comparing those in the 10th and 90th percentiles. Milk protein concentration, although statistically significant, had a lower effect on fertility outcome when comparing cows in the 10th and 90th percentiles for this exposure variable. The greatest effect was found in the 61 to 90 DIM recording window, where cows in the 10th percentile had an additional 9 d open at the subsequent breeding season compared with those in the 90th percentile. Overall, our study shows that although the associations between milk constituents and fertility are statistically significant, their overall influence in determining MSD to conception in this study population is relatively modest, particularly compared with fertility breeding subindex, when comparing cows at the 10th and 90th percentiles. Of the milk constituents measured, milk lactose concentration measured at 0 to 30 DIM had the greatest effect in determining fertility outcome when comparing cows at the 10th and 90th percentiles. The predictive value of early-lactation test day milk composition data on hazard of pregnancy during the following breeding period, within a spring-calving context, appears to be relatively modest at the individual-cow level. Further work is required to test the usefulness of these associations at the herd level.