Infectious Disease Modeling and Epidemic Response Measures Analysis Considering Asymptomatic Infection.

ABSTRACT

Classical SIR dynamic model and its derivative improved model may not accurately describe the epidemic situation similar to COVID-19 with characteristics of relative long incubation period and a large number of asymptomatic infections. Based on the existing epidemic compartment model, a novel compartment dynamic model considering actual transmission path of the symptomatic and asymptomatic infected is presented. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulation are employed to conduct prediction of development of the epidemic. According to different epidemic response measures, i.e., mitigation measures, suppression measures, medical treatment, evolutionary trend of epidemic situation under the initial population distribution structure are discussed. Results show that the control effects of different response measures on the number of deaths depend on the timing of the implementation of the measures. For mitigation response measures, the timing of the implementation of the measures has no obvious effect on the final epidemic, while for suppression response measures, the effect of suppression response measures in the early stage of the epidemic is significantly better than that in the middle and late stage of the epidemic development. Furthermore, no matter which stage the epidemic is in, the improvement of medical treatment level will play an important role in effectively reducing mortality. This study provides useful enlightenment and decision-making reference for policy makers to choose appropriate epidemic prevention and response measures in practice.