Contribution of primary care expansion to Sustainable Development Goal 3 for health: a microsimulation of the 15 largest cities in Brazil.
BMJ Open
; 12(1): e049251, 2022 Jan 11.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-35017236
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES:
As middle-income countries strive to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), it remains unclear to what degree expanding primary care coverage can help achieve those goals and reduce within-country inequalities in mortality. Our objective was to estimate the potential impact of primary care expansion on cause-specific mortality in the 15 largest Brazilian cities.DESIGN:
Microsimulation model.SETTING:
15 largest cities by population size in Brazil.PARTICIPANTS:
Simulated populations.INTERVENTIONS:
We performed survival analysis to estimate HRs of death by cause and by demographic group, from a national administrative database linked to the Estratégia de Saúde da Família (Family Health Strategy, FHS) electronic health and death records among 1.2 million residents of Rio de Janeiro (2010-2016). We incorporated the HRs into a microsimulation to estimate the impact of changing primary care coverage in the 15 largest cities by population size in Brazil. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMEMEASURES:
Crude and age-standardised mortality by cause, infant mortality and under-5 mortality.RESULTS:
Increased FHS coverage would be expected to reduce inequalities in mortality among cities (from 2.8 to 2.4 deaths per 1000 between the highest-mortality and lowest-mortality city, given a 40 percentage point increase in coverage), between welfare recipients and non-recipients (from 1.3 to 1.0 deaths per 1,000), and among race/ethnic groups (between Black and White Brazilians from 1.0 to 0.8 deaths per 1,000). Even a 40 percentage point increase in coverage, however, would be insufficient to reach SDG targets alone, as it would be expected to reduce premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 20% (vs the target of 33%), and communicable diseases by 15% (vs 100%).CONCLUSIONS:
FHS primary care coverage may be critically beneficial to reducing within-country health inequalities, but reaching SDG targets will likely require coordination between primary care and other sectors.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Desenvolvimento Sustentável
/
Renda
Limite:
Humans
/
Infant
País/Região como assunto:
America do sul
/
Brasil
Idioma:
En
Revista:
BMJ Open
Ano de publicação:
2022
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Estados Unidos