Bayesian nonparametric inference for heterogeneously mixing infectious disease models.

ABSTRACT

SignificanceMathematical models of infectious disease transmission continue to play a vital role in understanding, mitigating, and preventing outbreaks. The vast majority of epidemic models in the literature are parametric, meaning that they contain inherent assumptions about how transmission occurs in a population. However, such assumptions can be lacking in appropriate biological or epidemiological justification and in consequence lead to erroneous scientific conclusions and misleading predictions. We propose a flexible Bayesian nonparametric framework that avoids the need to make strict model assumptions about the infection process and enables a far more data-driven modeling approach for inferring the mechanisms governing transmission. We use our methods to enhance our understanding of the transmission mechanisms of the 2001 UK foot and mouth disease outbreak.