Predictive validity in drug discovery: what it is, why it matters and how to improve it.
Nat Rev Drug Discov
; 21(12): 915-931, 2022 12.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-36195754
ABSTRACT
Successful drug discovery is like finding oases of safety and efficacy in chemical and biological deserts. Screens in disease models, and other decision tools used in drug research and development (R&D), point towards oases when they score therapeutic candidates in a way that correlates with clinical utility in humans. Otherwise, they probably lead in the wrong direction. This line of thought can be quantified by using decision theory, in which 'predictive validity' is the correlation coefficient between the output of a decision tool and clinical utility across therapeutic candidates. Analyses based on this approach reveal that the detectability of good candidates is extremely sensitive to predictive validity, because the deserts are big and oases small. Both history and decision theory suggest that predictive validity is under-managed in drug R&D, not least because it is so hard to measure before projects succeed or fail later in the process. This article explains the influence of predictive validity on R&D productivity and discusses methods to evaluate and improve it, with the aim of supporting the application of more effective decision tools and catalysing investment in their creation.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Eficiência
/
Descoberta de Drogas
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Nat Rev Drug Discov
Assunto da revista:
FARMACOLOGIA
/
TERAPIA POR MEDICAMENTOS
Ano de publicação:
2022
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Reino Unido