Transmission roles of symptomatic and asymptomatic COVID-19 cases: a modelling study.
Epidemiol Infect
; 150: e171, 2022 09 27.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-36263615
ABSTRACT
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) asymptomatic cases are hard to identify, impeding transmissibility estimation. The value of COVID-19 transmissibility is worth further elucidation for key assumptions in further modelling studies. Through a population-based surveillance network, we collected data on 1342 confirmed cases with a 90-days follow-up for all asymptomatic cases. An age-stratified compartmental model containing contact information was built to estimate the transmissibility of symptomatic and asymptomatic COVID-19 cases. The difference in transmissibility of a symptomatic and asymptomatic case depended on age and was most distinct for the middle-age groups. The asymptomatic cases had a 66.7% lower transmissibility rate than symptomatic cases, and 74.1% (95% CI 65.9-80.7) of all asymptomatic cases were missed in detection. The average proportion of asymptomatic cases was 28.2% (95% CI 23.0-34.6). Simulation demonstrated that the burden of asymptomatic transmission increased as the epidemic continued and could potentially dominate total transmission. The transmissibility of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases is high and asymptomatic COVID-19 cases play a significant role in outbreaks.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Epidemias
/
COVID-19
Tipo de estudo:
Diagnostic_studies
Limite:
Humans
/
Middle aged
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Epidemiol Infect
Assunto da revista:
DOENCAS TRANSMISSIVEIS
/
EPIDEMIOLOGIA
Ano de publicação:
2022
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
China