Long-term variability of human health-related solar ultraviolet-B radiation doses for the 1980s to the end of the 21st century.

Solar ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation has played a crucial role in the evolution of life on Earth, and potential changes in its levels could affect the health and functionality of humans and the ecosystems. UV exposure presents both risks and benefits to humans. However, optimal UV-B radiation exposure depends on several environmental and physiological factors and cannot be easily determined. The present document provides a review of the current state of knowledge relative to the effects of UV-B radiation on human health. A brief description of the physical mechanisms that control the levels of solar UV-B radiation at the Earth's surface is provided, with special emphasis on the role of ozone and the importance of the Montreal Protocol. A comprehensive review of studies reporting current trends in levels of surface solar UV-B radiation and projections of future levels reveals the dominant role of climatic changes in the long-term variability of UV-B radiation and its impact on the development of melanomas as well as eye disorders. The review provides strong evidence that despite the success of the Montreal Protocol and the expected ozone recovery, the future evolution of the levels of solar UV-B radiation at the Earth's surface is not certain.