Prognostic variables and decannulation of tracheostomy in the long-term acute care environment: a case for clinician-driven decision-making.

Purpose: Tracheostomy is a necessary procedure required for prolonged mechanical ventilation in long-term acute care hospitals (LTACH). Many factors influence successful decannulation, or tracheostomy removal, and it is unclear what factors are essential for determining decannulation. The purpose of this study was to determine retrospective performance of single prognostic variables for successful decannulation, like peak expiratory flow measurement, overnight oximetry testing, and blood gas analysis. Methods: A retrospective analysis of a three-year period to investigate the association between peak flow (PF) measurements ≥160 L/min, successful overnight oximetry (ONO), sex, and decannulation success. Average PF measurements, arterial blood gas (ABG), days on mechanical ventilation, LTACH length of stay (LOS), and age were also investigated. Results: We examined the records of 135 patients, 127 of which were successfully decannulated. PF measurements ≥160 L/min (p=0.16), sex (p<0.05) and passing ONO (p<0.05) were significantly different between successfully and unsuccessfully decannulated patients; mean ABG (pH, pCO2, pO2), mechanical ventilation days, LOS, and age were not significantly different (p>0.05). Conclusions: These results suggest no single prognostic variable can predict decannulation outcomes. Rather, clinical judgment of experienced medical professionals appears sufficient to achieve a 94% decannulation success rate. Additional investigation is required to determine what metrics are necessary, or if clinical judgment alone can predict decannulation success.