Identification of dynamical changes of rabies transmission under quarantine: Community-based measures towards rabies elimination.
PLoS Comput Biol
; 19(12): e1011187, 2023 Dec.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38100528
ABSTRACT
Quarantine has been long used as a public health response to emerging infectious diseases, particularly at the onset of an epidemic when the infected proportion of a population remains identifiable and logistically tractable. In theory, the same logic should apply to low-incidence infections; however, the application and impact of quarantine in low prevalence settings appears less common and lacks a formal analysis. Here, we present a quantitative framework using a series of progressively more biologically realistic models of canine rabies in domestic dogs and from dogs to humans, a suitable example system to characterize dynamical changes under varying levels of dog quarantine. We explicitly incorporate health-seeking behaviour data to inform the modelling of contact-tracing and exclusion of rabies suspect and probable dogs that can be identified through bite-histories of patients presenting at anti-rabies clinics. We find that a temporary quarantine of rabies suspect and probable dogs provides a powerful tool to curtail rabies transmission, especially in settings where optimal vaccination coverage is yet to be achieved, providing a critical stopgap to reduce the number of human and animal deaths due to rabid bites. We conclude that whilst comprehensive measures including sensitive surveillance and large-scale vaccination of dogs will be required to achieve disease elimination and sustained freedom given the persistent risk of rabies re-introductions, quarantine offers a low-cost community driven solution to intersectoral health burden.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Raiva
/
Doenças do Cão
Limite:
Animals
/
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
PLoS Comput Biol
Assunto da revista:
BIOLOGIA
/
INFORMATICA MEDICA
Ano de publicação:
2023
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Reino Unido