Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting specific mortality risk: A study of competing risk model based on real endometrial cancer patients.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to construct a competing risk prediction model for predicting specific mortality risks in endometrial cancer patients from the SEER database based on their demographic characteristics and tumor information. METHODS: We collected relevant clinical data on patients with histologically confirmed endometrial cancer in the SEER database between 2010 and 2015. Univariate and multivariate competing risk models were used to analyze the risk factors for endometrial cancer-specific death, and a predictive nomogram was constructed. C-index and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) at different time points were used to verify the accuracy of the constructed nomogram. RESULTS: There were 26 109 eligible endometrial cancer patients in the training cohort and 11 189 in the validation cohort. Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed that Age, Marriage, Grade, Behav, FIGO, Size, Surgery, SurgOth, Radiation, ParaAortic_Nodes, Peritonea, N positive, DX_liver, and DX_lung were independent prognostic factors for specific mortality in endometrial cancer patients. Based on these factors, a nomogram was constructed. Internal validation showed that the nomogram had a good discriminative ability (C-index = 0.883 [95% confidence interval [CI] 0.881-0.884]), and the 1-, 3-, and 5-year AUC values were 0.901, 0.886 and 0.874, respectively. External validation indicated similar results (C-index = 0.883 [95%CI 0.882-0.883]), and the 1-, 3-, and 5- AUC values were 0.908, 0.885 and 0.870, respectively. CONCLUSION: We constructed a competing risk model to predict the specific mortality risk among endometrial cancer patients. This model has favorable accuracy and reliability and can provide a reference for the development and update of endometrial cancer prognostic risk assessment tools.