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A Modeling Study on the Effect of Interstate Mobility Restrictions on the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic.
Libotte, Gustavo B; Dos Anjos, Lucas; de Almeida, Regina C C; Malta, Sandra M C.
Afiliação
  • Libotte GB; Department of Computational Modeling, Polytechnic Institute, Rio de Janeiro State University, 25, Bonfim St., Vila Amélia, Nova Friburgo, Rio de Janeiro, 28625-570, Brazil. gustavolibotte@iprj.uerj.br.
  • Dos Anjos L; Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, 751 General Services Building, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2H1, Canada.
  • de Almeida RCC; National Laboratory for Scientific Computing, 333, Getúio Vargas Av., Quitandinha, Petrópolis, Rio de Janeiro, 25651-075, Brazil.
  • Malta SMC; National Laboratory for Scientific Computing, 333, Getúio Vargas Av., Quitandinha, Petrópolis, Rio de Janeiro, 25651-075, Brazil.
Bull Math Biol ; 86(9): 118, 2024 Aug 12.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39134748
ABSTRACT
Mobility is a crucial element in comprehending the possible expansion of the transmission chain in an epidemic. In the initial phases, strategies for containing cases can be directly linked to population mobility restrictions, especially when only non-pharmaceutical measures are available. During the pandemic of COVID-19 in Brazil, mobility limitation measures were strongly opposed by a large portion of the population. Hypothetically, if the population had supported such measures, the sharp rise in the number of cases could have been suppressed. In this context, computational modeling offers systematic methods for analyzing scenarios about the development of the epidemiological situation taking into account specific conditions. In this study, we examine the impacts of interstate mobility in Brazil. To do so, we develop a metapopulational model that considers both intra and intercompartmental dynamics, utilizing graph theory. We use a parameter estimation technique that allows us to infer the effective reproduction number in each state and estimate the time-varying transmission rate. This makes it possible to investigate scenarios related to mobility and quantify the effect of people moving between states and how certain measures to limit movement might reduce the impact of the pandemic. Our results demonstrate a clear association between the number of cases and mobility, which is heightened when states are closer to each other. This serves as a proof of concept and shows how reducing mobility in more heavily trafficked areas can be more effective.
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Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Simulação por Computador / Número Básico de Reprodução / Conceitos Matemáticos / Pandemias / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 / Modelos Biológicos Limite: Humans País/Região como assunto: America do sul / Brasil Idioma: En Revista: Bull Math Biol Ano de publicação: 2024 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Brasil

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Simulação por Computador / Número Básico de Reprodução / Conceitos Matemáticos / Pandemias / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 / Modelos Biológicos Limite: Humans País/Região como assunto: America do sul / Brasil Idioma: En Revista: Bull Math Biol Ano de publicação: 2024 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Brasil