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1.
Zhonghua Wei Zhong Bing Ji Jiu Yi Xue ; 32(6): 750-753, 2020 Jun.
Artigo em Chinês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32684225

RESUMO

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic is the most widespread global pandemic in the past 100 years. Person-to-person transmission of COVID-19 infection leads to the major threat of human safety and health. At 00:00 on January 24th, 2020, Tianjin City launched the first-level response to the COVID-19 epidemic. At 18:00 on the same day, Management Committee of Dongjiang Free Trade Port Zone of Tianjin received areport that there were 15 people who had fever on the Costa Crociere carrying 4 806 people from Japan back to the home port of Tianjin Dongjiang Cruise. At the same time, there are more than 140 Chinese Hubei tourists. Tianjin Municipal Committee and Government, Tianjin Customs, Binhai New Area District Committee Government, Tianjin Health Commission, Tianjin Binhai New Area Health Commission formed an emergency command center immediately to deal with the epidemic comprehensively. At 06:40 on January 25th, 2020, the medical investigation team made up by Tianjin Binhai New Area Health Commission and Tianjin East Administration of Customs boarded the cruise ship. With reference to the customs inspection and quarantine regulations, in accordance with the Diagnosis and treatment of pneumonia caused by novel coronavirus (trial version 3) for mulated by the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China and the Novel coronavirus infected pneumonia port control and technology plan (first version) formulated by the General Administration of Customs, combined with the actual situation of cruise ships, the medical investigation team developed the inspection standards, including door-to-door inspections, temperature measurement and epidemiological investigations on all persons on board of the cruise ship. A total of 4 806 person-times were investigated in the affected area, including 3 706 tourists and 1 100 crew members. Seventeen people at high risk of COVID-19 were identified, including three Wuhan tourists. The reports of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) nucleic acid detection on throat swab samples for those who were identified as high risk were returned as all negative at 14:54 on the same day. At 19:30, the medical investigation team completed the investigation and evacuated the cruise ship. The temperature measurement, medical observation and resettlement of passenger were handed over to relevant personnel. After 2 weeks, the follow-up result of 2019-nCoV nucleic acid of 17 high risk people were all negative. The overall command and comprehensive coordination of the onshore command center together with the rigid principles and excellent responds ability of the on-site epidemic investigation team ensured the successful completion of the epidemic investigation work, and also provided reference for further improving the management and disposal capacity of public health emergencies at sea.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral , China/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Epidemias , Humanos , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Estudos Retrospectivos
2.
Transl Psychiatry ; 10(1): 225, 2020 07 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32647160

RESUMO

To understand Wuhan residents' psychological reactions to the COVID-19 epidemic and offer a reference point for interventions, an online questionnaire survey was conducted. It included the Disorder 7-Item Scale (GAD-7), the Patient Health Questionnaire 9-Item Scale (PHQ-9), Athens Insomnia Scale, and Simplified Coping Style Questionnaire. Categorical data were reported as numbers and percentages. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to evaluate the association between demographic factors and anxiety, depression, sleep disorder, and passive coping style. A total of 1242 Wuhan residents investigated, 27.5% had anxiety, 29.3% had depression, 30.0% had a sleep disorder, and 29.8% had a passive response to COVID-19. Being female was the risk factor for anxiety (OR = 1.62) and sleep disorder (OR = 1.36); being married was associated with anxiety (OR = 1.75); having a monthly income between 1000 and 5000 CNY (OR = 1.44, OR = 1.83, OR = 2.61) or >5000 CNY (OR = 1.47, OR = 1.45, OR = 2.14) was a risk factor for anxiety, depression, and sleep disorder; not exercising (OR = 1.45, OR = 1.71, OR = 1. 85, OR = 1.71) was a common risk factor for anxiety, depression, sleep disorder, and passive coping style; and having a higher education level (bachelor's degree and above) (OR = 1.40) was associated with having a sleep disorder. Wuhan residents' psychological status and sleep quality were relatively poorer than they were before the COVID-19 epidemic; however, the rate of passive coping to stress was relatively higher.


Assuntos
Adaptação Psicológica , Infecções por Coronavirus/psicologia , Epidemias , Pneumonia Viral/psicologia , Transtornos do Sono-Vigília/etiologia , Estresse Psicológico/etiologia , Adulto , Ansiedade/epidemiologia , Ansiedade/etiologia , China/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Estudos Transversais , Depressão/epidemiologia , Depressão/etiologia , Epidemias/estatística & dados numéricos , Feminino , Humanos , Modelos Logísticos , Masculino , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Fatores de Risco , Fatores Sexuais , Transtornos do Sono-Vigília/epidemiologia , Transtornos do Sono-Vigília/psicologia , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Estresse Psicológico/epidemiologia , Estresse Psicológico/psicologia , Inquéritos e Questionários
3.
WMJ ; 119(2): 84-90, 2020 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32659059

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: The coronavirus pandemic has placed enormous stresses on health care systems across the United States and internationally. Predictive modeling has been an important tool for projecting utilization rates and surge planning. As the initial outbreak begins to slow, questions are being raised regarding long-term coronavirus mitigation plans. This paper examines the current status of the coronavirus outbreak in Milwaukee County, Wisconsin, and simulates several scenarios where physical distancing measures are removed. METHODS: The outbreak's doubling time, reproductive numbers at several points, and incidence curve were calculated to assess outbreak progression. Compartmental models were used to estimate the number of hospitalizations and critically ill patients in Milwaukee County if distancing policies were removed. RESULTS: The compartmental models predict a substantial spike in cases and overwhelming medical resource utilization with an abrupt end to social distancing. Partial reduction in social distancing policies would likely result in a smaller spike, with less severe strain on available medical resources. CONCLUSIONS: Milwaukee County remains very susceptible to a resurgence of COVID-19 cases. Removing physical distancing policies poses significant risks with regard to resource management.


Assuntos
Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Epidemias/prevenção & controle , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Política Pública , Betacoronavirus , Humanos , Wisconsin/epidemiologia
4.
BMC Public Health ; 20(1): 1164, 2020 Jul 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32711503

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) that first occurred in Wuhan, China, is currently spreading throughout China. The majority of infected patients either traveled to Wuhan or came into contact with an infected person from Wuhan. Investigating members of the public with a travel history to Wuhan became the primary focus of the Chinese government's epidemic prevention and control measures, but several instances of withheld histories were uncovered as localized clusters of infections broke out. This study investigated the public's willingness and beliefs associated with reporting travel history to high-risk epidemic regions, to provide effective suggestions and measures for encouraging travel reporting. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted online between February 12 and 19, 2020. Descriptive analysis, chi-squared test, and Fisher's exact test were used to identify socio-demographic factors and beliefs associated with reporting, as well as their impact on the willingness to report on travel history to high-risk epidemic regions. RESULTS: Of the 1344 respondents, 91 (6.77%) expressed an inclination to deliberately withhold travel history. Those who understood the benefits of reporting and the legal consequences for deliberately withholding information, showed greater willingness to report their history (P < 0.05); conversely, those who believed reporting would stigmatize them and feared being quarantined after reporting showed less willingness to report (P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: As any incident of withheld history can have unpredictable outcomes, the proportion of people who deliberately withhold information deserves attention. Appropriate public risk communication and public advocacy strategies should be implemented to strengthen the understanding that reporting on travel history facilitates infection screening and prompt treatment, and to decrease the fear of potentially becoming quarantined after reporting. Additionally, social support and policies should be established, and measures should be taken to alleviate stigmatization and discrimination against potential patients and reporters of travel history. Reinforcing the legal accountability of withholding travel history and strengthening systematic community monitoring are the measures that China is currently taking to encourage reporting on travel history to high-risk epidemic regions. These non-pharmaceutical interventions are relevant for countries that are currently facing the spread of the epidemic and those at risk of its potential spread.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Epidemias , Conhecimentos, Atitudes e Prática em Saúde , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Viagem/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto , China/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Estudos Transversais , Feminino , Governo , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Quarentena/psicologia , Medição de Risco , Adulto Jovem
5.
Med Glas (Zenica) ; 17(2): 265-274, 2020 Aug 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32602300

RESUMO

Aim The damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has made the prevention of its further spread at the top of the list of priorities of many governments and state institutions responsible for health and civil protection around the world. This prevention implies an effective system of epidemiological surveillance and the application of timely and effective control measures. This research focuses on the application of techniques for modelling and geovisualization of epidemic data with the aim of simple and fast communication of analytical results via geoportal. Methods The paper describes the approach applied through the project of establishing the epidemiological location-intelligence system for monitoring the effectiveness of control measures in preventing the spread of COVID-19 in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Results Epidemic data were processed and the results related to spatio-temporal analysis of the infection spread were presented by compartmental epidemic model, reproduction number R, epi-curve diagrams as well as choropleth maps for different levels of administrative units. Geovisualization of epidemic data enabled the release of numerous information from described models and indicators, providing easier visual communication of the spread of the disease and better recognition of its trend. Conclusion The approach involves the simultaneous application of epidemic models and epidemic data geovisualization, which allows a simple and rapid evaluation of the epidemic situation and the effects of control measures. This contributes to more informative decision-making related to control measures by suggesting their selective application at the local level.


Assuntos
Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Betacoronavirus , Bósnia e Herzegóvina/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Visualização de Dados , Epidemias , Monitoramento Epidemiológico , Mapeamento Geográfico , Sistemas de Informação em Saúde , Humanos , Modelos Estatísticos , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão
6.
PLoS Med ; 17(7): e1003166, 2020 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32692736

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread to nearly every country in the world since it first emerged in China in December 2019. Many countries have implemented social distancing as a measure to "flatten the curve" of the ongoing epidemics. Evaluation of the impact of government-imposed social distancing and of other measures to control further spread of COVID-19 is urgent, especially because of the large societal and economic impact of the former. The aim of this study was to compare the individual and combined effectiveness of self-imposed prevention measures and of short-term government-imposed social distancing in mitigating, delaying, or preventing a COVID-19 epidemic. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a deterministic compartmental transmission model of SARS-CoV-2 in a population stratified by disease status (susceptible, exposed, infectious with mild or severe disease, diagnosed, and recovered) and disease awareness status (aware and unaware) due to the spread of COVID-19. Self-imposed measures were assumed to be taken by disease-aware individuals and included handwashing, mask-wearing, and social distancing. Government-imposed social distancing reduced the contact rate of individuals irrespective of their disease or awareness status. The model was parameterized using current best estimates of key epidemiological parameters from COVID-19 clinical studies. The model outcomes included the peak number of diagnoses, attack rate, and time until the peak number of diagnoses. For fast awareness spread in the population, self-imposed measures can significantly reduce the attack rate and diminish and postpone the peak number of diagnoses. We estimate that a large epidemic can be prevented if the efficacy of these measures exceeds 50%. For slow awareness spread, self-imposed measures reduce the peak number of diagnoses and attack rate but do not affect the timing of the peak. Early implementation of short-term government-imposed social distancing alone is estimated to delay (by at most 7 months for a 3-month intervention) but not to reduce the peak. The delay can be even longer and the height of the peak can be additionally reduced if this intervention is combined with self-imposed measures that are continued after government-imposed social distancing has been lifted. Our analyses are limited in that they do not account for stochasticity, demographics, heterogeneities in contact patterns or mixing, spatial effects, imperfect isolation of individuals with severe disease, and reinfection with COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that information dissemination about COVID-19, which causes individual adoption of handwashing, mask-wearing, and social distancing, can be an effective strategy to mitigate and delay the epidemic. Early initiated short-term government-imposed social distancing can buy time for healthcare systems to prepare for an increasing COVID-19 burden. We stress the importance of disease awareness in controlling the ongoing epidemic and recommend that, in addition to policies on social distancing, governments and public health institutions mobilize people to adopt self-imposed measures with proven efficacy in order to successfully tackle COVID-19.


Assuntos
Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Epidemias/prevenção & controle , Desinfecção das Mãos , Máscaras , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Política Pública , Quarentena , Conscientização , Betacoronavirus , Participação da Comunidade , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Governo , Educação em Saúde , Humanos , Modelos Estatísticos , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Fatores de Tempo
7.
J R Soc Interface ; 17(168): 20200144, 2020 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32693748

RESUMO

A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) emerged as a global threat in December 2019. As the epidemic progresses, disease modellers continue to focus on estimating the basic reproductive number [Formula: see text]-the average number of secondary cases caused by a primary case in an otherwise susceptible population. The modelling approaches and resulting estimates of [Formula: see text] during the beginning of the outbreak vary widely, despite relying on similar data sources. Here, we present a statistical framework for comparing and combining different estimates of [Formula: see text] across a wide range of models by decomposing the basic reproductive number into three key quantities: the exponential growth rate, the mean generation interval and the generation-interval dispersion. We apply our framework to early estimates of [Formula: see text] for the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, showing that many [Formula: see text] estimates are overly confident. Our results emphasize the importance of propagating uncertainties in all components of [Formula: see text], including the shape of the generation-interval distribution, in efforts to estimate [Formula: see text] at the outset of an epidemic.


Assuntos
Número Básico de Reprodução , Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Surtos de Doenças , Modelos Biológicos , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Número Básico de Reprodução/estatística & dados numéricos , Teorema de Bayes , China/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Epidemias/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Cadeias de Markov , Método de Monte Carlo , Pandemias , Probabilidade , Incerteza
8.
Stud Health Technol Inform ; 272: 17-20, 2020 Jun 26.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32604589

RESUMO

The increased prevalence and frequency of infectious diseases are alarming with respect to the disproportionate fatalities across different regions, socio-economic conditions, and demographic groups. Combining pathological data, socio-environmental data, and extracted knowledge from white papers, we proposed a Globally Localized Epidemic Knowledge base (GLEK) that can be utilized for efficient and optimal epidemic surveillance. GLEK merges social, environmental, pathological, and governmental intervention data to provide efficient advice for epidemic control and intervention. Heuristically utilizing multi-locus data sources, GLEK can identify the best tailored intervention.


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis , Epidemias , Humanos , Inteligência , Bases de Conhecimento
10.
Urologe A ; 59(8): 941-952, 2020 Aug.
Artigo em Alemão | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32638066

RESUMO

Pandemics are relevant for many fields of medicine from microbiology to economics and epidemiology. Many medical specialties which developed during the 19th century, e. g., urology, have had much impact on diagnostics and therapy, such as during the treatment of tuberculosis and sexually transmitted diseases. For some of them, including urology, treatment of, for example, sexually transmitted diseases, was constitutional and differed between countries.


Assuntos
Epidemias/história , Tuberculose Urogenital/história , Urologia/história , Alemanha , História da Medicina , História do Século XVIII , História do Século XIX , História do Século XX , Humanos , Pandemias , Doenças Sexualmente Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Tuberculose Urogenital/epidemiologia , Tuberculose Urogenital/terapia
11.
Epidemiol Infect ; 148: e161, 2020 07 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32713366

RESUMO

After the 2003 SARS epidemic, China started constructing a primary-level emergency response system and focused on strengthening and implementation of policies, resource allocation. After 17 years of restructuring, China's primary-level response capabilities towards public health emergencies have greatly improved. During the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic, primary-level administrative and medical personnel, social organisations, volunteers, etc. have played a significant role in providing professional services utilising the primary-level emergency response system of 17 years. However, China's organisations did not learn their lesson from the SARS epidemic, and certain problems are exposed in the system. By analysing the experience and shortcomings of China's disease prevention and control system at the primary level, we can focus on the development of disease control systems for major epidemics in the future.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Serviços Médicos de Emergência/normas , Epidemias/prevenção & controle , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Saúde Pública/normas , China , Serviços Médicos de Emergência/organização & administração , Serviços Médicos de Emergência/tendências , Política de Saúde/tendências , Humanos , Disseminação de Informação/métodos , Tecnologia da Informação/tendências , Populações Vulneráveis
12.
BMC Infect Dis ; 20(1): 462, 2020 Jul 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32611396

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: At present, there are few studies on polymorphism of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) gene and how it affects the TB epidemic. This study aimed to document the differences of polymorphisms between tuberculosis hot and cold spot areas of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China. METHODS: The cold and hot spot areas, each with 3 counties, had been pre-identified by TB incidence for 5 years from the surveillance database. Whole genome sequencing analysis was performed on all sputum Mtb isolates from the detected cases during January and June 2018. Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) of each isolate compared to the H37Rv strain were called and used for lineage and sub-lineage identification. Pairwise SNP differences between every pair of isolates were computed. Analyses of Molecular Variance (AMOVA) across counties of the same hot or cold spot area and between the two areas were performed. RESULTS: As a whole, 59.8% (57.7% sub-lineage 2.2 and 2.1% sub-lineage 2.1) and 39.8% (17.8% sub-lineage 4.4, 6.5% sub-lineage 4.2 and 15.5% sub-lineage 4.5) of the Mtb strains were Lineage 2 and Lineage 4 respectively. The percentages of sub-lineage 2.2 (Beijing family strains) are significantly higher in hot spots. Through the MDS dimension reduction, the genomic population structure in the three hot spot counties is significantly different from those three cold spot counties (T-test p = 0.05). The median of SNPs distances among Mtb isolates in cold spots was greater than that in hot spots (897 vs 746, Rank-sum test p < 0.001). Three genomic clusters, each with genomic distance ≤12 SNPs, were identified with 2, 3 and 4 consanguineous strains. Two clusters were from hot spots and one was from cold spots. CONCLUSION: Narrower genotype diversity in the hot area may indicate higher transmissibility of the Mtb strains in the area compared to those in the cold spot area.


Assuntos
Temperatura Baixa , Epidemias , Temperatura Alta/efeitos adversos , Mycobacterium tuberculosis/genética , Tuberculose Pulmonar/diagnóstico , Tuberculose Pulmonar/epidemiologia , China/epidemiologia , Análise por Conglomerados , Genótipo , Humanos , Incidência , Mycobacterium tuberculosis/isolamento & purificação , Filogenia , Polimorfismo de Nucleotídeo Único , Escarro/microbiologia , Tuberculose Pulmonar/transmissão , Sequenciamento Completo do Genoma
13.
J Biol Dyn ; 14(1): 590-607, 2020 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32696723

RESUMO

In this paper, we apply optimal control theory to a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) transmission model given by a system of non-linear ordinary differential equations. Optimal control strategies are obtained by minimizing the number of exposed and infected population considering the cost of implementation. The existence of optimal controls and characterization is established using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle. An expression for the basic reproduction number is derived in terms of control variables. Then the sensitivity of basic reproduction number with respect to model parameters is also analysed. Numerical simulation results demonstrated good agreement with our analytical results. Finally, the findings of this study shows that comprehensive impacts of prevention, intensive medical care and surface disinfection strategies outperform in reducing the disease epidemic with optimum implementation cost.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Modelos Biológicos , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Número Básico de Reprodução/estatística & dados numéricos , Simulação por Computador , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Epidemias/prevenção & controle , Epidemias/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Controle de Infecções , Conceitos Matemáticos , Dinâmica não Linear , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Fatores de Risco , Biologia de Sistemas
14.
Acta Med Hist Adriat ; 18(1): 47-62, 2020 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32638599

RESUMO

The Spanish flu pandemic spread in 1918-19 and infected about 500 million people, killing 50 to 100 million of them. People were suffering from severe poverty and malnutrition, especially in Europe, due to the First World War, and this contributed to the diffusion of the disease. In Italy, Spanish flu appeared in April 1918 with several cases of pulmonary congestion and bronchopneumonia; at the end of the epidemic, about 450.000 people died, causing one of the highest mortality rates in Europe. From the archive documents and the autoptic registers of the Hospital of Pisa, we can express some considerations on the impact of the pandemic on the population of the city and obtain some information about the deceased. In the original necroscopic registers, 43 autopsies were reported with the diagnosis of grippe (i.e. Spanish flu), of which the most occurred from September to December 1918. Most of the dead were young individuals, more than half were soldiers, and all of them showed confluent hemor agic lung bronchopneumonia, which was the typical feature of the pandemic flu. We believe that the study of the autopsy registers represents an incomparable instrument for the History of Medicine and a useful resource to understand the origin and the evolution of the diseases.


Assuntos
Autopsia/história , Broncopneumonia/história , Epidemias/história , Influenza Pandêmica, 1918-1919/história , Influenza Humana/história , Adolescente , Adulto , Distribuição por Idade , Idoso , Broncopneumonia/mortalidade , Broncopneumonia/virologia , Feminino , História do Século XX , Humanos , Influenza Pandêmica, 1918-1919/mortalidade , Influenza Humana/complicações , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Influenza Humana/mortalidade , Itália/epidemiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Adulto Jovem
15.
Front Immunol ; 11: 1662, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32719687

RESUMO

An unprecedented outbreak of pneumonia caused by a novel coronavirus (CoV), subsequently termed COVID-19 by the World Health Organization, emerged in Wuhan City (China) in December 2019. Despite rigorous containment and quarantine efforts, the incidence of COVID-19 continues to expand, causing explosive outbreaks in more than 160 countries with waves of morbidity and fatality, leading to significant public health problems. In the past 20 years, two additional epidemics caused by CoVs have occurred: severe acute respiratory syndrome-CoV, which has caused a large-scale epidemic in China and 24 other countries; and respiratory syndrome-CoV of the Middle East in Saudi Arabia, which continues to cause sporadic cases. All of these viruses affect the lower respiratory tract and manifest as pneumonia in humans, but the novel SARS-Cov-2 appears to be more contagious and has spread more rapidly worldwide. This mini-review focuses on the cellular immune response to COVID-19 in human subjects, compared to other clinically relevant coronaviruses to evaluate its role in the control of infection and pathogenesis and accelerate the development of a preventive vaccine or immune therapies.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus/imunologia , Infecções por Coronavirus , Epidemias , Imunidade Celular , Imunoterapia , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/imunologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/terapia , Humanos , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/imunologia , Pneumonia Viral/terapia
17.
Math Biosci ; 326: 108391, 2020 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32497623

RESUMO

The ongoing Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic threatens the health of humans and causes great economic losses. Predictive modeling and forecasting the epidemic trends are essential for developing countermeasures to mitigate this pandemic. We develop a network model, where each node represents an individual and the edges represent contacts between individuals where the infection can spread. The individuals are classified based on the number of contacts they have each day (their node degrees) and their infection status. The transmission network model was respectively fitted to the reported data for the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan (China), Toronto (Canada), and the Italian Republic using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) optimization algorithm. Our model fits all three regions well with narrow confidence intervals and could be adapted to simulate other megacities or regions. The model projections on the role of containment strategies can help inform public health authorities to plan control measures.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Modelos Biológicos , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Algoritmos , Número Básico de Reprodução/estatística & dados numéricos , China/epidemiologia , Simulação por Computador , Intervalos de Confiança , Busca de Comunicante/estatística & dados numéricos , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Epidemias/prevenção & controle , Epidemias/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Itália/epidemiologia , Cadeias de Markov , Conceitos Matemáticos , Método de Monte Carlo , Ontário/epidemiologia , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pandemias/estatística & dados numéricos , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Quarentena/estatística & dados numéricos
19.
Orv Hetil ; 161(25): 1022-1027, 2020 06.
Artigo em Húngaro | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32516119

RESUMO

Patients with inflammatory bowel disease are more susceptible to severe viral infections requiring hospitalization regardless of treatment. Immunosuppressives and biological treatments multiply the chances of opportunistic and lung infections, especially in combination therapy, so due to the new coronavirus (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2) epidemic, which primarily causes respiratory disease, it is advisable to use different therapeutic considerations for effective and safe patient care. Contrary to the expectations, a study from Italy and China each, despite of the large number of infected cases, did not report any SARS-CoV-2 positivity in patients with inflammatory bowel disease, which can be due to a number of favorable factors, such as the lower average age of the patients, lack of comorbidities, etc. However, it should not be forgotten that the patients on immunosuppressive and/or biological therapy belong to the compromised group. Consequently, in some cases there is a need to modify the therapy, but we should keep in mind that the relapse alongside with the need of medical consultation and even hospitalization elevate the chance of being infected. Thus, flare-ups ought to be avoided as far as they can be, so continuing the already started maintenance therapy can be a reasonable solution, but, in the high-risk group, modifying it can be reasonable as well. Our aim with this article is to make the health care more effective, and to give a practical recommendation for physicians during the epidemic, based on international publications. Orv Hetil. 2020; 161(25): 1022-1027.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Epidemias , Doenças Inflamatórias Intestinais/terapia , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , China/epidemiologia , Humanos , Itália/epidemiologia , Pandemias
20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32575492

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Recently, the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has already spread rapidly as a global pandemic, just like the H1N1 swine influenza in 2009. Evidences have indicated that the efficiency of emergency response was considered crucial to curb the spread of the emerging infectious disease. However, studies of COVID-19 on this topic are relatively few. METHODS: A qualitative comparative study was conducted to compare the timeline of emergency responses to H1N1 (2009) and COVID-19, by using a set of six key time nodes selected from international literature. Besides, we also explored the spread speed and peak time of COVID-19 and H1N1 swine influenza by comparing the confirmed cases in the same time interval. RESULTS: The government's entire emergency responses to the epidemic, H1N1 swine influenza (2009) completed in 28 days, and COVID-19 (2019) completed in 46 days. Emergency responses speed for H1N1 was 18 days faster. As for the epidemic spread speed, the peak time of H1N1 came about 4 weeks later than that of COVID-19, and the H1N1 curve in America was flatter than COVID-19 in China within the first four months after the disease emerged. CONCLUSIONS: The speed of the emergency responses to H1N1 was faster than COVID-19, which might be an important influential factor for slowing down the arrival of the peak time at the beginning of the epidemic. Although COVID-19 in China is coming to an end, the government should improve the public health emergency system, in order to control the spread of the epidemic and lessen the adverse social effects in possible future outbreaks.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H1N1 , Influenza Humana/prevenção & controle , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Prática de Saúde Pública , Betacoronavirus , Estudos de Casos e Controles , China/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças , Epidemias , Humanos , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Saúde Pública , Estudos Retrospectivos
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