Integrating data types to estimate spatial patterns of avian migration across the Western Hemisphere.

For many avian species, spatial migration patterns remain largely undescribed, especially across hemispheric extents. Recent advancements in tracking technologies and high-resolution species distribution models (i.e., eBird Status and Trends products) provide new insights into migratory bird movements and offer a promising opportunity for integrating independent data sources to describe avian migration. Here, we present a three-stage modeling framework for estimating spatial patterns of avian migration. First, we integrate tracking and band re-encounter data to quantify migratory connectivity, defined as the relative proportions of individuals migrating between breeding and nonbreeding regions. Next, we use estimated connectivity proportions along with eBird occurrence probabilities to produce probabilistic least-cost path (LCP) indices. In a final step, we use generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) both to evaluate the ability of LCP indices to accurately predict (i.e., as a covariate) observed locations derived from tracking and band re-encounter data sets versus pseudo-absence locations during migratory periods and to create a fully integrated (i.e., eBird occurrence, LCP, and tracking/band re-encounter data) spatial prediction index for mapping species-specific seasonal migrations. To illustrate this approach, we apply this framework to describe seasonal migrations of 12 bird species across the Western Hemisphere during pre- and postbreeding migratory periods (i.e., spring and fall, respectively). We found that including LCP indices with eBird occurrence in GAMMs generally improved the ability to accurately predict observed migratory locations compared to models with eBird occurrence alone. Using three performance metrics, the eBird + LCP model demonstrated equivalent or superior fit relative to the eBird-only model for 22 of 24 species-season GAMMs. In particular, the integrated index filled in spatial gaps for species with over-water movements and those that migrated over land where there were few eBird sightings and, thus, low predictive ability of eBird occurrence probabilities (e.g., Amazonian rainforest in South America). This methodology of combining individual-based seasonal movement data with temporally dynamic species distribution models provides a comprehensive approach to integrating multiple data types to describe broad-scale spatial patterns of animal movement. Further development and customization of this approach will continue to advance knowledge about the full annual cycle and conservation of migratory birds.

Hatching date influences winter habitat occupancy: Examining seasonal interactions across the full annual cycle in a migratory songbird.

Birds experience a sequence of critical events during their life cycle, and past events can subsequently determine future performance via carry-over effects. Events during the non-breeding season may influence breeding season phenology or productivity. Less is understood about how events during the breeding season affect individuals subsequently in their life cycle. Using stable carbon isotopes, we examined carry-over effects throughout the annual cycle of prairie warblers (Setophaga discolor), a declining Nearctic-Neotropical migratory passerine bird. In drier winters, juvenile males that hatched earlier at our study site in Massachusetts, USA, occupied wetter, better-quality winter habitat in the Caribbean, as indicated by depleted carbon isotope signatures. For juveniles that were sampled again as adults, repeatability in isotope signatures indicated similar winter habitat occupancy across years. Thus, hatching date of juvenile males appears to influence lifetime winter habitat occupancy. For adult males, reproductive success did not carry over to influence winter habitat occupancy. We did not find temporally consecutive "domino" effects across the annual cycle (breeding to wintering to breeding) or interseasonal, intergenerational effects. Our finding that a male's hatching date can have a lasting effect on winter habitat occupancy represents an important contribution to our understanding of seasonal interactions in migratory birds.

Rainfall and habitat interact to affect the condition of a wintering migratory songbird in The Bahamas.

On the subtropical and tropical wintering grounds of migratory birds, variation in moisture levels and habitat can influence the availability of food resources and subsequently impact overwintering birds. Using stable carbon isotopes in blood samples as a measure of moisture, we assessed the interactive effects of rainfall, vegetation, and moisture on the demographics and condition of Prairie Warblers (Setophaga discolor) wintering in The Bahamas. Carbon isotopes in Prairie Warbler blood were more depleted in taller, wetter habitats; we additionally detected novel temporal effects of rainfall on isotope values. During a winter with more rainfall, most birds maintained mass and pectoral muscle regardless of the habitat type occupied. In a winter with less rainfall, birds lost mass and pectoral muscle, and this effect was more pronounced in birds with enriched isotope values and birds that occupied drier, shorter habitat. Prairie Warblers exhibited strong patterns of sexual habitat segregation with males disproportionately observed in areas with taller vegetation and females in shorter vegetation. During the drier winter, older males had better maintenance of pectoral muscle compared to females and younger individuals. Also in the drier winter, daily rainfall patterns explained more of the variation in body condition compared to the date of capture; pectoral muscle was best explained by recent precipitation (during the previous 30 days), while size-corrected mass was more a function of longer-term (90-day) rainfall and habitat moisture. Our findings along with other studies suggest that Prairie Warblers and other migratory birds are sensitive to interactions between annual variation in winter rainfall, within-season daily rainfall patterns, and habitat quality. Increasing drought and habitat loss in the Caribbean may be having a negative impact on wintering bird populations. To best conserve Nearctic-Neotropical migratory passerines in the region, we recommend prioritizing the protection of the least drought-prone wintering areas.