Distinct receptor binding domain IgG thresholds predict protective host immunity across SARS-CoV-2 variants and time.

SARS-CoV-2 neutralising antibodies provide protection against COVID-19. Evidence from early vaccine trials suggested binding antibody thresholds could serve as surrogate markers of neutralising capacity, but whether these thresholds predict sufficient neutralising capacity against variants of concern (VOCs), and whether this is impacted by vaccine or infection history remains unclear. Here we analyse individuals recovered from, vaccinated or with hybrid immunity against SARS-CoV-2. An NT50 ≥ 100 IU confers protection in vaccine trials, however, as VOC induce a reduction in NT50, we use NT50 ≥ 1000 IU as a cut off for WT NT50 that would retain neutralisation against VOC. In unvaccinated convalescent participants, a receptor binding domain (RBD) IgG of 456 BAU/mL predicts an NT50 against WT of 1000 IU with an accuracy of 80% (95%CI 73-86%). This threshold maintains accuracy in determining loss of protective immunity against VOC in two vaccinated cohorts. It predicts an NT50 < 100 IU against Beta with an accuracy of 80% (95%CI 67-89%) in 2 vaccine dose recipients. In booster vaccine recipients with a history of COVID-19 (hybrid immunity), accuracy is 87% (95%CI 77-94%) in determining an NT50 of <100 IU against BA.5. This analysis provides a discrete threshold that could be used in future clinical studies.

Performance and validation of an adaptable multiplex assay for detection of serologic response to SARS-CoV-2 infection or vaccination.

Measurement of quantitative antibody responses are increasingly important in evaluating the immune response to infection and vaccination. In this study we describe the validation of a quantitative, multiplex serologic assay utilising an electrochemiluminescence platform, which measures IgG against the receptor binding domain (RBD), spike S1 and S2 subunits and nucleocapsid antigens of SARS-CoV-2. The assay displayed a sensitivity ranging from 73 to 91% and specificity from 90 to 96% in detecting previous infection with SARS-CoV-2 depending on antigenic target and time since infection, and this assay highly correlated with commercially available assays. The within-plate coefficient of variation ranged from 3.8-3.9% and the inter-plate coefficient of variation from 11 to 13% for each antigen.