Moving away from the "unit cost". Predicting country-specific average cost curves of VMMC services accounting for variations in service delivery platforms in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: One critical element to optimize funding decisions involves the cost and efficiency implications of implementing alternative program components and configurations. Program planners, policy makers and funders alike are in need of relevant, strategic data and analyses to help them plan and implement effective and efficient programs. Contrary to widely accepted conceptions in both policy and academic arenas, average costs per service (so-called "unit costs") vary considerably across implementation settings and facilities. The objective of this work is twofold: 1) to estimate the variation of VMMC unit costs across service delivery platforms (SDP) in Sub-Saharan countries, and 2) to develop and validate a strategy to extrapolate unit costs to settings for which no data exists. METHODS: We identified high-quality VMMC cost studies through a literature review. Authors were contacted to request the facility-level datasets (primary data) underlying their results. We standardized the disparate datasets into an aggregated database which included 228 facilities in eight countries. We estimated multivariate models to assess the correlation between VMMC unit costs and scale, while simultaneously accounting for the influence of the SDP (which we defined as all possible combinations of type of facility, ownership, urbanicity, and country), on the unit cost variation. We defined SDP as any combination of such four characteristics. Finally, we extrapolated VMMC unit costs for all SDPs in 13 countries, including those not contained in our dataset. RESULTS: The average unit cost was 73 USD (IQR: 28.3, 100.7). South Africa showed the highest within-country cost variation, as well as the highest mean unit cost (135 USD). Uganda and Namibia had minimal within-country cost variation, and Uganda had the lowest mean VMMC unit cost (22 USD). Our results showed evidence consistent with economies of scale. Private ownership and Hospitals were significant determinants of higher unit costs. By identifying key cost drivers, including country- and facility-level characteristics, as well as the effects of scale we developed econometric models to estimate unit cost curves for VMMC services in a variety of clinical and geographical settings. CONCLUSION: While our study did not produce new empirical data, our results did increase by a tenfold the availability of unit costs estimates for 128 SDPs in 14 priority countries for VMMC. It is to our knowledge, the most comprehensive analysis of VMMC unit costs to date. Furthermore, we provide a proof of concept of the ability to generate predictive cost estimates for settings where empirical data does not exist.

Con la ley y sin la ley/With and without the law: Utilization of abortion services and case fatality in Mexico, 2000-2016.

OBJECTIVE: To describe utilization of health services for, and case fatality from, abortion in Mexico. METHOD: A historical cohort study using a census of state-level aggregate hospital discharge and primary care clinic data across Mexico's 32 states from January 2000 to December 2016. Abortive events and changes over time in utilization per 1000 women aged 15-44 years, and case fatality per 100 000 abortion-related events were described by year, health sector, and state. Associations of location (Mexico City vs 31 other states) and time (Mexico City implemented legal abortion services in 2007) with outcomes were tested by linear regression, controlling for secular trends. RESULTS: The national abortion utilization rate was 6.7 per 1000 women in 2000, peaked at 7.9 in 2011, and plateaued to 7.0 in 2016. In Mexico City, utilization peaked at 16.7 in 2014 and then plateaued. Nationwide, the case-fatality rate declined over time from 53.7 deaths per 100 000 events in 2000 to 33.0 in 2016. Case fatality declined more rapidly in Mexico City than in the other 31 states to 12.3 in 2015. CONCLUSION: Case fatality from abortive events has decreased across Mexico. Where abortion became legal, utilization increased sharply but plateaued afterward.

Meta-analysis of average costs of HIV testing and counselling and voluntary medical male circumcision across thirteen countries.

Objective: Explore facility-level average costs per client of HIV testing and counselling (HTC) and voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) services in 13 countries.Methods: Through a literature search we identified studies that reported facility-level costs of HTC or VMMC programmes. We requested the primary data from authors and standardised the disparate data sources to make them comparable. We then conducted descriptive statistics and a meta-analysis to assess the cost variation among facilities. All costs were converted to 2017 US dollars ($).Results: We gathered data from 14 studies across 13 countries and 772 facilities (552 HTC, 220 VMMC). The weighted average unit cost per client served was $15 (95% CI 12, 18) for HTC and $59 (95% CI 45, 74) for VMMC. On average, 38% of the mean unit cost for HTC corresponded to recurrent costs, 56% to personnel costs, and 6% to capital costs. For VMMC, 41% of the average unit cost corresponded to recurrent costs, 55% to personnel costs, and 4% to capital costs. We observed unit cost variation within and between countries, and lower costs in higher scale categories in all interventions.

A meta-analysis approach for estimating average unit costs for ART using pooled facility-level primary data from African countries.

Objective: To estimate facility-level average cost for ART services and explore unit cost variations using pooled facility-level cost estimates from four HIV empirical cost studies conducted in five African countries .Methods: Through a literature search we identified studies reporting facility-level costs for ART programmes. We requested the underlying data and standardised the disparate data sources to make them comparable. Subsequently, we estimated the annual cost per patient served and assessed the cost variation among facilities and other service delivery characteristics using descriptive statistics and meta-analysis. All costs were converted to 2017 US dollars ($). Results: We obtained and standardised data from four studies across five African countries and 139 facilities. The weighted average cost per patient on ART was $251 (95% CI: 193-308). On average, 46% of the mean unit cost correspond to antiretroviral (ARVs) costs, 31% to personnel costs, 20% other recurrent costs, and 2% to capital costs. We observed a lot of variation in unit cost and scale levels between countries. We also observed a negative relationship between ART unit cost and the number of patients served in a year.Conclusion: Our approach allowed us to explore unit cost variation across contexts by pooling ART costs from multiple sources. Our research provides an example of how to estimate costs based on heterogeneous sources reconciling methodological differences across studies and contributes by giving an example on how to estimate costs based on heterogeneous sources of data. Also, our study provides additional information on costs for funders, policy-makers, and decision-makers in the process of designing or scaling-up HIV interventions.

Utilisation of second-trimester spontaneous and induced abortion services in public hospitals in Mexico, 2007-2015.

BACKGROUND: Data on utilisation of in-facility second-trimester abortion services are sparse. We describe temporal and geographical trends in utilisation of in-facility second-trimester abortion services across Mexico. METHODS: We used 2007-2015 data from Mexico's Automated Hospital Discharge System (SAEH) to identify second-trimester abortive events (ICD O02-O08) in public hospitals across Mexico's 32 states. We described utilisation, calculated rates using population data, and used logistic regression to identify woman- and state-level factors (municipality-level marginalisation, state-level abortion law) associated with utilisation of second-trimester versus first-trimester services. RESULTS: We identified 145 956 second-trimester abortions, or 13.4% of total documented hospitalizations for abortion between 2007 to 2015. The annual utilisation rate of second-trimester abortion remained constant, between 0.5 to 0.6 per 1000 women aged 15-44 years. Women living in highly marginalised municipalities had 1.43 higher odds of utilising abortions services in their second versus their first trimester, when compared with women in municipalities with low marginalisation (95% CI 1.18 to 1.73). Living in a state with a health or fetal anomaly exception to abortion restrictions was not associated with higher utilisation of second-trimester abortion services. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest there is a need for all types of second-trimester abortion services in Mexico. To improve health outcomes for Mexican women, especially the most vulnerable, access to safe second-trimester abortion services must be ensured through the implementation of current legal exceptions and renewed attention to the training of healthcare providers.

Quantifying disparities in access to public-sector abortion based on legislative differences within the Mexico City Metropolitan Area.

OBJECTIVES: In the Mexico City Metropolitan Area, only women in the city center have local access to legal first-trimester abortion. We quantify how this legislative discrepancy affects access to legal, public-sector abortion across the metropolitan area. STUDY DESIGN: In this observational study, we used a dataset representing 67.2% of all abortions occurring between 2010 and 2012 in Mexico City's public abortion program and census population data. We calculate utilization rates for 75 municipalities in the metropolitan area for 2010-2012. We compare utilization between municipalities with and without local legal access, adjusting for differences in sociodemographic drivers of abortion demand. We explore the effects of local abortion legality, travel time and socioeconomic status (SES). RESULTS: Women who had to travel into the city center for legal abortions used services at only 18.6% (95% CI 13.3%-33.0%) of the expected rate if they had local access, adjusting for sociodemographic factors. After controlling for travel time and SES, women who lived where abortion is illegal had a 58.6% (95% CI 21.5%-78.1%) reduction in access, and each additional 15 min of travel further reduced access by 33.7% (95% CI 18.2%-46.3%). Women who travel to seek legal abortions are more likely to have completed secondary education compared to other reproductive age women in their municipality (p = <.00001). CONCLUSIONS: We find that, in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area, both living where abortion is illegal and having to travel further to access services substantially reduce access to legal, public-sector abortion. These burdens disproportionately affect women of lower SES. IMPLICATIONS: Both local legality and proximate access are key to ensuring equity in access to public-sector abortion. Legalization of abortion services across the greater Mexico City Metropolitan Area has the potential to increase equity in utilization and meet unmet demand for legal abortion.

Physical activity and risk of breast cancer, colon cancer, diabetes, ischemic heart disease, and ischemic stroke events: systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

OBJECTIVE:  To quantify the dose-response associations between total physical activity and risk of breast cancer, colon cancer, diabetes, ischemic heart disease, and ischemic stroke events. DESIGN:  Systematic review and Bayesian dose-response meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES:  PubMed and Embase from 1980 to 27 February 2016, and references from relevant systematic reviews. Data from the Study on Global AGEing and Adult Health conducted in China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russia, and South Africa from 2007 to 2010 and the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys from 1999 to 2011 were used to map domain specific physical activity (reported in included studies) to total activity. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES:  Prospective cohort studies examining the associations between physical activity (any domain) and at least one of the five diseases studied. RESULTS:  174 articles were identified: 35 for breast cancer, 19 for colon cancer, 55 for diabetes, 43 for ischemic heart disease, and 26 for ischemic stroke (some articles included multiple outcomes). Although higher levels of total physical activity were significantly associated with lower risk for all outcomes, major gains occurred at lower levels of activity (up to 3000-4000 metabolic equivalent (MET) minutes/week). For example, individuals with a total activity level of 600 MET minutes/week (the minimum recommended level) had a 2% lower risk of diabetes compared with those reporting no physical activity. An increase from 600 to 3600 MET minutes/week reduced the risk by an additional 19%. The same amount of increase yielded much smaller returns at higher levels of activity: an increase of total activity from 9000 to 12 000 MET minutes/week reduced the risk of diabetes by only 0.6%. Compared with insufficiently active individuals (total activity <600 MET minutes/week), the risk reduction for those in the highly active category (≥8000 MET minutes/week) was 14% (relative risk 0.863, 95% uncertainty interval 0.829 to 0.900) for breast cancer; 21% (0.789, 0.735 to 0.850) for colon cancer; 28% (0.722, 0.678 to 0.768) for diabetes; 25% (0.754, 0.704 to 0.809) for ischemic heart disease; and 26% (0.736, 0.659 to 0.811) for ischemic stroke. CONCLUSIONS:  People who achieve total physical activity levels several times higher than the current recommended minimum level have a significant reduction in the risk of the five diseases studied. More studies with detailed quantification of total physical activity will help to find more precise relative risk estimates for different levels of activity.