Evaluation of the malaria elimination policy in Brazil: a systematic review and epidemiological analysis study.

After a centenary fight against malaria, Brazil has seen an opportunity for change with the proposal of the malaria elimination policy set by the Brazilian government, in line with malaria elimination policies in other Latin American countries. Brazilian malaria experts regard eliminating malaria by 2030 to be within reach. Herein we evaluated the likelihood that malaria elimination can be accomplished in Brazil through systematic review of the literature on malaria elimination in Brazil and epidemiological analysis. Fifty-two articles referring to malaria eradication/elimination in Brazil were analyzed to identify challenges and technological breakthroughs for controlling malaria. Monthly deaths (1979-2016) and monthly severe malaria cases (1998-2018) were analyzed according to age groups, geographic region and parasite species. As a result, we observed that the declining malaria burden was mostly attributable to a decline in Plasmodium falciparum-malaria. At the same time, the proportional increase of Plasmodium vivax-malaria in comparison with P. falciparum-malaria was notable. This niche replacement mechanism was discussed in the reviewed literature. In addition, the challenges to P. vivax-malaria elimination outnumbered the available technological breakthroughs. Although accumulated and basic information exists on mosquito vector biology, the lack of specific knowledge about mosquito vector taxonomy and ecology may hamper current attempts at stopping malaria in the country. An impressive reduction in malaria hospitalizations and mortality was seen in Brazil in the past 3 decades. Eliminating malaria deaths in children less than 5 years and P. falciparum severe cases may be achievable goals under the current malaria policy until 2030. However, eliminating P. vivax malaria transmission and morbidity seems unattainable with the available tools. Therefore, complete malaria elimination in Brazil in the near future is unlikely.

Evaluation of the malaria elimination policy in Brazil: a systematic review and epidemiological analysis study

@#After a centenary fight against malaria, Brazil has seen an opportunity for change with the proposal of the malaria elimination policy set by the Brazilian government, in line with malaria elimination policies in other Latin American countries. Brazilian malaria experts regard eliminating malaria by 2030 to be within reach. Herein we evaluated the likelihood that malaria elimination can be accomplished in Brazil through systematic review of the literature on malaria elimination in Brazil and epidemiological analysis. Fifty-two articles referring to malaria eradication/elimination in Brazil were analyzed to identify challenges and technological breakthroughs for controlling malaria. Monthly deaths (1979–2016) and monthly severe malaria cases (1998–2018) were analyzed according to age groups, geographic region and parasite species. As a result, we observed that the declining malaria burden was mostly attributable to a decline in Plasmodium falciparum-malaria. At the same time, the proportional increase of Plasmodium vivax-malaria in comparison with P. falciparum-malaria was notable. This niche replacement mechanism was discussed in the reviewed literature. In addition, the challenges to P. vivax-malaria elimination outnumbered the available technological breakthroughs. Although accumulated and basic information exists on mosquito vector biology, the lack of specific knowledge about mosquito vector taxonomy and ecology may hamper current attempts at stopping malaria in the country. An impressive reduction in malaria hospitalizations and mortality was seen in Brazil in the past 3 decades. Eliminating malaria deaths in children less than 5 years and P. falciparum severe cases may be achievable goals under the current malaria policy until 2030. However, eliminating P. vivax malaria transmission and morbidity seems unattainable with the available tools. Therefore, complete malaria elimination in Brazil in the near future is unlikely.

Dengue hospitalisations in Brazil: annual wave from West to East and recent increase among children.

The number of dengue epidemics in Brazil has increased dramatically in the last 15 years. In this study, we analysed the seasonal patterns in the incidence of hospitalisations due to dengue across the different states of Brazil and compared these with the corresponding climatic patterns. We discovered that the seasonality of dengue hospitalisations in Brazil has a clear zonal gradient, characterised by the progression of primary peaks from West to East during the first half of the year, which may be associated with the increased vapour pressure and rainfall during this period, leading to increased mosquito abundance and activity. We also found that the proportion of children among hospitalised individuals was especially high during the peak outbreaks in 2007/2008 and 2010. This may be due to the emergence and spread of the new DENV-2 Southeast Asian genotype lineage II from 2007, which has probably arrived from the Caribbean and may have caused an increase in incidence and severity of the disease, particularly among children. Our findings may allow health systems to improve control interventions and contribute to reducing dengue morbidity and mortality by using integrated vector control in conjunction with early diagnosis and prompt supportive care.

Spatio-temporal patterns of diarrhoeal mortality in Mexico.

Diarrhoeal mortality rates in Mexican children dramatically declined during the 1980s and 1990s, concomitant with a temporal shift in peak deaths from summer to autumn-winter. The spatial dynamics of these patterns have not previously been studied. We first describe the seasonal features of paediatric diarrhoeal mortality in Mexico as a whole, then across individual states. While no geographical gradients in the magnitude of diarrhoeal mortality rates have been detected in recent years, we identified a distinct spatial pattern in the timing of peak mortality rate. In the 1980s the summer peak mortality was earliest around Mexico's capital and later in states to the southeast and northwest. Our results suggest that the direction and timing of those annual waves are related to the mean monthly precipitation and mean daily temperature. This pattern has disintegrated in recent years as the summer peak has diminished.

An exploration of spatial patterns of seasonal diarrhoeal morbidity in Thailand.

Studies of temporal and spatial patterns of diarrhoeal disease can suggest putative aetiological agents and environmental or socioeconomic drivers. Here, the seasonal patterns of monthly acute diarrhoeal morbidity in Thailand, where diarrhoeal morbidity is increasing, are explored. Climatic data (2003-2006) and Thai Ministry of Health annual reports (2003-2009) were used to construct a spatially weighted panel regression model. Seasonal patterns of diarrhoeal disease were generally bimodal with aetiological agents peaking at different times of the year. There is a strong association between daily mean temperature and precipitation and the incidence of hospitalization due to acute diarrhoea in Thailand leading to a distinct spatial pattern in the seasonal pattern of diarrhoea. Model performance varied across the country in relation to per capita GDP and population density. While climatic factors are likely to drive the general pattern of diarrhoeal disease in Thailand, the seasonality of diarrhoeal disease is dampened in affluent urban populations.

The 'ghosts' that pester studies on learning in mosquitoes: guidelines to chase them off.

The identification of memory and learning in medically important mosquito species has been of epidemiological interest mainly because of the implications of learning on the pattern of contact between vectors and hosts. Empirical results either showing or suggesting the existence of cognitive abilities in mosquitoes have been reported in a number of experimental studies, mainly based on the observation of individual fidelity towards subsets of specific resources, such as hosts, resting sites or breeding sites. A closer inspection of the design of these experiments shows that, with the exception of recent studies providing stronger evidence of learning in the genus Culex (Diptera: Culicidae), methodological shortcomings still hinder the possibility of eliminating alternative interpretations for these findings, in some cases because the experiments were not specifically designed to identify the phenomenon, but mostly because of a lack of appropriate controls or replication. By highlighting these limitations, while acknowledging the practical difficulties that are inherent to the field, we aim to help expel from future research the 'ghosts' that still preclude the achievement of more definite conclusions about the prevalence of memory and learning in this group of insects.