Recent warming and increasing CO2 stimulate growth of dominant trees under no water limitation in South Korea.

Increases in temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentration influence the growth performance of trees worldwide. The direction and intensity of tree growth and physiological responses to changing climate do, however, vary according to environmental conditions. Here we present complex, long-term, tree-physiological responses to unprecedented temperature increase in East Asia. For this purpose, we studied radial growth and isotopic (δ13C and δ18O) variations using tree-ring data for the past 100 yr of dominant Quercus mongolica trees from the cool-temperate forests from Hallasan, South Korea. Overall, we found that tree stem basal area increment, intercellular CO2 concentration and intrinsic water-use efficiency significantly increased over the last century. We observed, however, short-term variability in the trends of these variables among four periods identified by change point analysis. In comparison, δ18O did not show significant changes over time, suggesting no major hydrological changes in this precipitation-rich area. The strength and direction of growth-climate relationships also varied during the past 100 yr. Basal area increment (BAI) did not show significant relationships with the climate over the 1924-1949 and 1975-1999 periods. However, over 1950-1974, BAI was negatively affected by both temperature and precipitation, while after 2000, a temperature stimulus was observed. Finally, over the past two decades, the increase in Q. mongolica tree growth accelerated and was associated with high spring-summer temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations and decreasing intrinsic water-use efficiency, δ18O and vapour pressure deficit, suggesting that the photosynthetic rate continued increasing under no water limitations. Our results indicate that the performance of dominant trees of one of the most widely distributed species in East Asia has benefited from recent global changes, mainly over the past two decades. Such findings are essential for projections of forest dynamics and carbon sequestration under climate change.

Global pattern of forest disturbances and its shift under climate change.

Forests are continuously altered by disturbances. Yet, knowledge of global pattern of forest disturbance agents, its drivers, and shifts under changing climate remain scarce. Here we present a meta-analysis of current and projected (+2° and + 4 °C) distribution of forest disturbance agents causing immediate tree mortality (i.e., fire, pest outbreak, hydro-geomorphic, and wind) at country, continental, biome, and global scales. The model including combination of climatic (precipitation of driest quarter, actual evapotranspiration, and minimum temperature), geographical (distance to coast and topography complexity), and forest characteristics (tree density) performs better than any other model in explaining the distribution of disturbance agents (R2 = 0.74). We provide global maps (0.5° × 0.5°) of current and potential future distribution of forest disturbance agents. Globally, the most frequent disturbance agent was fire (46.09 %), followed by pest outbreak (23.27 %), hydro-geomorphic disturbances (18.97 %), and wind (11.67 %). Our projections indicate spatially contrasting shifts in disturbance agents, with fire and wind risk increase between ~50°S and ~ 40°N under warming climate. In particular, the substantial increase in fire risk, exceeding 31 % in the most affected areas, is projected over Mediterranean, the western and southeast USA, African, Oceanian, and South American forests. On the other hand, pest outbreak and hydro-geomorphic disturbances are projected to increase in more southern (> ~ 50°S) and northern (> ~ 40°N) latitudes. Our findings are critical for understanding ongoing changes and developing mitigation strategies to maintain the ecological integrity and ecosystem services under shifts in forest disturbances. We suggest that projected shifts in the global distribution of forest disturbance agents needs to be considered to future models of vegetation or carbon sink dynamics under projected climate change.

Major tree species of Central European forests differ in their proportion of positive, negative, and nonstationary growth trends.

Temperate forests are undergoing significant transformations due to the influence of climate change, including varying responses of different tree species to increasing temperature and drought severity. To comprehensively understand the full range of growth responses, representative datasets spanning extensive site and climatic gradients are essential. This study utilizes tree-ring data from 550 sites from the temperate forests of Czechia to assess growth trends of six dominant Central European tree species (European beech, Norway spruce, Scots pine, silver fir, sessile and pedunculate oak) over 1990-2014. By modeling mean growth series for each species and site, and employing principal component analysis, we identified the predominant growth trends. Over the study period, linear growth trends were evident across most sites (56% increasing, 32% decreasing, and 10% neutral). The proportion of sites with stationary positive trends increased from low toward high elevations, whereas the opposite was true for the stationary negative trends. Notably, within the middle range of their distribution (between 500 and 700 m a.s.l.), Norway spruce and European beech exhibited a mix of positive and negative growth trends. While Scots pine growth trends showed no clear elevation-based pattern, silver fir and oaks displayed consistent positive growth trends regardless of site elevation, indicating resilience to the ongoing warming. We demonstrate divergent growth trajectories across space and among species. These findings are particularly important as recent warming has triggered a gradual shift in the elevation range of optimal growth conditions for most tree species and has also led to a decoupling of growth trends between lowlands and mountain areas. As a result, further future shifts in the elevation range and changes in species diversity of European temperate forests can be expected.