Selective Pressure and Evolution of SARS-CoV-2 Lineages BF.7 and BQ.1.1 Circulating in Italy from July to December 2022.

In this work, we studied the selective pressure and evolutionary analysis on the SARS-CoV-2 BF.7 and BQ.1.1 lineages circulating in Italy from July to December 2022. Two different datasets were constructed: the first comprised 694 SARS-CoV-2 BF.7 lineage sequences and the second comprised 734 BQ.1.1 sequences, available in the Italian COVID-19 Genomic (I-Co-Gen) platform and GISAID (last access date 15 December 2022). Alignments were performed with MAFFT v.7 under the Galaxy platform. The HYPHY software was used to study the selective pressure. Four positively selected sites (two in nsp3 and two in the spike) were identified in the BF.7 dataset, and two (one in ORF8 and one in the spike gene) were identified in the BQ.1.1 dataset. Mutation analysis revealed that R408S and N440K are very common in the spike of the BF.7 genomes, as well as L452R among BQ.1.1. N1329D and Q180H in nsp3 were found, respectively, at low and rare frequencies in BF.7, while I121L and I121T were found to be rare in ORF8 for BQ.1.1. The positively selected sites may have been driven by the selection for increased viral fitness, under circumstances of defined selective pressure, as well by host genetic factors.

An outbreak of COVID-19 after a pilgrimage to Medjugorje due to Delta sub-lineages.

INTRODUCTION: A COVID-19 outbreak occurred at the end of October 2021 among pilgrims returning from Medjugorje (Bosnia and Herzegovina). METHODOLOGY: Whole genome sequencing (WGS) of SARS-CoV-2, epidemiological data, and phylogenetic analysis were used to reconstruct outbreak dynamics. RESULTS: The results suggest that only in one case, associated with the SARS-CoV-2 sub-lineage AY.9.2, it is possible to trace back the place of contagion to Medjugorje, while the other cases were likely to be acquired in the country of origin. CONCLUSIONS: The combined use of phylogenetic data derived from WGS, and epidemiological data allowed us to study epidemic dynamics and to formulate a possible hypothesis on the place of exposure to SARS-CoV-2. The identification of different sub-lineages of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant also suggested that different chains of transmission contributed to the outbreak.

Tracking the Selective Pressure Profile and Gene Flow of SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant in Italy from April to October 2021 and Frequencies of Key Mutations from Three Representative Italian Regions.

The SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant of concern (VOC) was often associated with serious clinical course of the COVID-19 disease. Herein, we investigated the selective pressure, gene flow and evaluation on the frequencies of mutations causing amino acid substitutions in the Delta variant in three Italian regions. A total of 1500 SARS-CoV-2 Delta genomes, collected in Italy from April to October 2021 were investigated, including a subset of 596 from three Italian regions. The selective pressure and the frequency of amino acid substitutions and the prediction of their possible impact on the stability of the proteins were investigated. Delta variant dataset, in this study, identified 68 sites under positive selection: 16 in the spike (23.5%), 11 in nsp2 (16.2%) and 10 in nsp12 (14.7%) genes. Three of the positive sites in the spike were located in the receptor-binding domain (RBD). In Delta genomes from the three regions, 6 changes were identified as very common (>83.7%), 4 as common (>64.0%), 21 at low frequency (2.1%-25.0%) and 29 rare (≤2.0%). The detection of positive selection on key mutations may represent a model to identify recurrent signature mutations of the virus.

FHbp variants among meningococci of serogroup B in Italy: Evolution and selective pressure, 2014-2017.

BACKGROUND: Neisseria meningitidis (meningococcus) is the causative agent of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD). Meningococcus of serogroup B (MenB) is one of the main serogroup causing IMD. MenB strains may be prevented by meningococcal B vaccines. In particular, vaccines with Factor H-binding protein (FHbp), classified into two subfamilies (A or B) or in three variants (v1, v2 or v3), are those available. The objective of the study was to investigate the phylogenetic relationships of FHbp subfamilies A and B (variants v1, v2 or v3) genes and proteins, together with their evolution patterns and selective pressure. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Overall, alignments of FHbp nucleotide and protein sequence from 155 MenB samples collected in different parts of Italy, from 2014 to 2017, were analyzed by ClustalW. JModeltest and the Smart Model Selection software were used for the statistical selection of the best-fit substitution models for nucleotide and protein alignments. Site-specific positive and negative selection were estimated through the HYPHY package. The phylogenetic signal was investigated with the likelihood mapping method. The Maximum Likelihood (ML) phylogenetic reconstructions were performed with Phyml. RESULTS: The phylogenic analysis identified different clusters within the FHbp subfamily A and B variants, confirming sequence diversity. The pattern of selective pressure in our study indicated that subfamily B FHbp sequences are subjected to greater variations and positive selective pressure respect to subfamily A, with 16 positively supported selected sites identified. CONCLUSION: The study pointed out the need for continued genomic surveillance for meningococci to monitor selective pressure and amino acidic changes. Monitoring the genetic diversity and molecular evolution of FHbp variants may be useful to investigate genetic diversity which may emerge over time.

Seven Years of Culture Collection of Neisseria gonorrhoeae: Antimicrobial Resistance and Molecular Epidemiology.

The emergence of Neisseria gonorrhoeae isolates displaying resistance to antimicrobials, in particular to ceftriaxone monotherapy or ceftriaxone plus azithromycin, represents a global public health concern. This study aimed to analyze the trend of antimicrobial resistance in a 7-year isolate collection retrospective analysis in Italy. Molecular typing on a subsample of gonococci was also included. A total of 1,810 culture-positive gonorrhea cases, collected from 2013 to 2019, were investigated by antimicrobial susceptibility, using gradient diffusion method, and by the N. gonorrhoeae multiantigen sequence typing (NG-MAST). The majority of infections occurred among men with urogenital infections and 57.9% of male patients were men who have sex with men. Overall, the cefixime resistance remained stable during the time. An increase of azithromycin resistance was observed until 2018 (26.5%) with a slight decrease in the last year. In 2019, gonococci showing azithromycin minimum inhibitory concentration above the EUCAST epidemiological cutoff value (ECOFF) accounted for 9.9%. Ciprofloxacin resistance and penicillinase-producing N. gonorrhoeae (PPNG) percentages increased reaching 79.1% and 18.7% in 2019, respectively. The most common sequence types identified were 5,441, 1,407, 6,360, and 5,624. The predominant genogroup (G) was the 1,407; moreover, a new genogroup G13070 was also detected. A variation in the antimicrobial resistance rates and high genetic variability were observed in this study. The main phenotypic and genotypic characteristics of N. gonorrhoeae isolates were described to monitor the spread of drug-resistant gonorrhea.

Reduction of the risk of severe COVID-19 due to Omicron compared to Delta variant in Italy (November 2021 - February 2022).

OBJECTIVES: During 2022, Omicron became the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in Europe. This study aims to assess the impact of such variant on severe disease from SARS-CoV-2 compared with the Delta variant in Italy. METHODS: Using surveillance data, we assessed the risk of developing severe COVID-19 with Omicron infection compared with Delta in individuals aged ≥12 years using a multilevel negative binomial model adjusting for sex, age, vaccination status, occupation, previous infection, weekly incidence, and geographical area. We also analyzed the interaction between the sequenced variant, age, and vaccination status. RESULTS: We included 21,645 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection where genome sequencing found Delta (10,728) or Omicron (10,917), diagnosed from November 15, 2021 to February 01, 2022. Overall, 3,021 cases developed severe COVID-19. We found that Omicron cases had a reduced risk of severe COVID-19 compared with Delta cases (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.70-0.86). The largest difference was observed in cases aged 40-59 (IRR = 0.66; 95% CI: 0.55-0.79), while no protective effect was found in those aged 12-39 (IRR = 1.03; 95% CI: 0.79-1.33). Vaccination was associated with a lower risk of developing severe COVID-19 in both variants. CONCLUSION: The Omicron variant is associated with a lower risk of severe COVID-19 compared to infection with the Delta variant, but the degree of protection varies with age.

Primary septic arthritis of the knee caused by Neisseria meningitidis serogroup B in an elderly patient. Case report and review of the literature.

PURPOSE: Primary meningococcal arthritis (PMA) represents an uncommon clinical presentation of meningococcal infection, mainly reported among young people. Herein, a case of PMA of the knee in an elderly patient is described. CASE PRESENTATION: On January 2022, an 87-year-old patient arrived at hospital with continuous fever persisting for three days and a picture of pain, swelling, redness, and warmth of her left knee. An arthrocentesis was promptly performed and the inoculated synovial fluid turned positive with numerous Gram-negative diplococci at the microscopic examination. The identification of bacteria was done in 48 h using matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization-time of flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF) MS systems (VITEK®MS-bioMérieux) and standard microbiological procedures (VITEK®2 NH ID card-bioMérieux). Both methods identified the strain as N. meningitidis. The meningococcal isolate belonged to the serogroup B (MenB), Sequence type (ST)-162/clonal complex (cc)162. Two grams of ceftriaxone twice a day were administered for 21 days; than cefditoren pivoxil 400 mg twice a day for further 6 weeks after discharge. In Italy, from 2018 to January 2022, among 135 MenB, 31 MenB/cc162 were identified, of which only the case here reported was associated with an atypical clinical presentation. REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE: A total of 41 cases of PMA caused by N. meningitidis was reported in the literature, but only four occurred in elderly. To our knowledgements, no cases of PMA caused by MenB were previously reported among patients of more than 65 years of age.

Antimicrobial susceptibility profiles and genotyping of Neisseria meningitidis of serogroup C, Italy, 2000-2020.

Background: In Italy the introduction of meningococcal C conjugate vaccine in 2005 has led to a significant reduction of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) caused by Neisseria meningitidis of serogroup C (MenC). However, this serogroup is still responsible of sporadic cases, clusters and local outbreaks. The study aims to investigate the genotype and antimicrobial susceptibility profile of MenC isolates collected in Italy from 2000 to 2020. Methods: Bacterial isolates and biological samples (blood or cerebrospinal fluid) from invasive meningococcal cases are collected and characterized at the National Reference Laboratory for IMD of Istituto Superiore di Sanità. Antimicrobial susceptibility was determined by MIC Test Strip Method and interpreted according to the EUCAST breakpoints guideline. Genotypic characteristics, including multi locus sequence typing (MLST), finetype, and antimicrobial resistance target genes were performed and analyzed using the PubMLST database. Genomic comparison of core genome MLST (cgMLST) of MenC genomes was also carried out. Results: From 2000 to 2020, a total of 665 MenC isolates were investigated for antimicrobial susceptibility and 301 for genotyping. Over two decades, almost all MenC isolates resulted susceptible to antimicrobials with few isolates resulting resistant to ciprofloxacin (N = 2), penicillin G (N = 13), and rifampicin (N = 9), respectively. Molecular typing of MenC obtained from isolates or clinical specimens identified mostly the genotype C:P1.5-1,10-8:F3-6:ST-11(cc11). However, phylogenetic analysis, performed on genomes from MenC isolates, identified two sub lineages, 11.1 and 11.2, among cc11, of which the sub lineage 11.2 was the predominant. Conclusion: Wider application of the genomic analysis and monitoring of antimicrobial susceptibility represent key aspects of IMD surveillance and to monitor the continued evolution of these hyperinvasive strains.

Tracking the progressive spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Italy, December 2021 to January 2022.

BackgroundThe SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern Omicron was first detected in Italy in November 2021.AimTo comprehensively describe Omicron spread in Italy in the 2 subsequent months and its impact on the overall SARS-CoV-2 circulation at population level.MethodsWe analyse data from four genomic surveys conducted across the country between December 2021 and January 2022. Combining genomic sequencing results with epidemiological records collated by the National Integrated Surveillance System, the Omicron reproductive number and exponential growth rate are estimated, as well as SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility.ResultsOmicron became dominant in Italy less than 1 month after its first detection, representing on 3 January 76.9-80.2% of notified SARS-CoV-2 infections, with a doubling time of 2.7-3.3 days. As of 17 January 2022, Delta variant represented < 6% of cases. During the Omicron expansion in December 2021, the estimated mean net reproduction numbers respectively rose from 1.15 to a maximum of 1.83 for symptomatic cases and from 1.14 to 1.36 for hospitalised cases, while remaining relatively stable, between 0.93 and 1.21, for cases needing intensive care. Despite a reduction in relative proportion, Delta infections increased in absolute terms throughout December contributing to an increase in hospitalisations. A significant reproduction numbers' decline was found after mid-January, with average estimates dropping below 1 between 10 and 16 January 2022.ConclusionEstimates suggest a marked growth advantage of Omicron compared with Delta variant, but lower disease severity at population level possibly due to residual immunity against severe outcomes acquired from vaccination and prior infection.

SARS-CoV-2 variants: what have we learnt so far? Commentary.

Besides the timely detection of different SARS-CoV-2 variants through surveillance systems, functional and modelling studies are essential to better inform public health response and preparedness. Here, the knowledge available so far on SARS-CoV-2 variants is discussed from different perspectives, in order to highlight the relevance of a multidisciplinary approach in countering the threat posed by this insidious virus.

Reactive vaccination as control strategy for an outbreak of invasive meningococcal disease caused by Neisseria meningitidis C:P1.5-1,10-8:F3-6:ST-11(cc11), Bergamo province, Italy, December 2019 to January 2020.

In Italy, serogroup C meningococci of the clonal complex cc11 (MenC/cc11) have caused several outbreaks of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) during the past 20 years. Between December 2019 and January 2020, an outbreak of six cases of IMD infected with MenC/cc11 was identified in a limited area in the northern part of Italy. All cases presented a severe clinical picture, and two of them were fatal. This report is focused on the microbiological and molecular analysis of meningococcal isolates with the aim to reconstruct the chain of transmission. It further presents the vaccination strategy adopted to control the outbreak. The phylogenetic evaluation demonstrated the close genetic proximity between the strain involved in this outbreak and a strain responsible for a larger epidemic that had occurred in 2015 and 2016 in the Tuscany Region. The rapid identification and characterisation of IMD cases and an extensive vaccination campaign contributed to the successful control of this outbreak caused by a hyperinvasive meningococcal strain.

Evaluation of Meningococcal Serogroup C Bactericidal Antibodies after Primary Vaccination: A Multicentre Study, Italy.

Here, we evaluated over time in different cohorts of children vaccinated against serogroup C Neisseria meningitidis, the presence of antibodies with neutralizing activity. A total of 348 sera samples of enrolled children by year since vaccination (<1 year- up to 5 years), starting from February 2016 to December 2017, were collected in three collaborating centers. Meningococcal serogroup C (MenC) antibody titers were measured with a serum bactericidal antibody (SBA) assay using rabbit complement (rSBA) following standard operating procedures. The cut-off of rSBA titer ≥ 8 is considered the correlate of protection. We observed a significantly declining of bactericidal rSBA titers by 23% every year, for every 1-year from vaccination (Adjusted PR = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.71−0.84). The proportions of children with bactericidal antibodies, immunized with the meningococcal serogroup C conjugate (MCC) vaccine, declined from 67.7% (95% CI: 48.6−83.3%) one year after vaccination, to 36.7% (95% CI: 19.9−56.1%) five years after vaccination (chi-square for linear trend, p < 0.001). Children vaccinated with the tetravalent meningococcal serogroup ACWY vaccine resulted in a high proportion of bactericidal rSBA MenC titer ≥ 1:8 (90.6%, 95% CI: 79.3−96.9%) after a mean time of seven months. Overall, the results provide some evidences on the evaluation of meningococcal serogroup C bactericidal antibodies after primary vaccination.

Did social distancing measures deployed for SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 control have an impact on invasive meningococcal disease?

We investigated the impact of social distancing measures, used to contain or mitigate SARS-CoV-2 spread, on the transmission of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) in Italy. To this end, the temporal correlation between the implementation of lockdown measures in 2020 and IMD incidence was evaluated. A dramatic decline of IMD incidence was observed, suggesting that the measures applied to contain SARS-CoV-2 in Italy affected other infectious diseases transmitted through direct contact and droplets, at least in the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Molecular characterisation and antibiotic susceptibility of meningococcal isolates from healthy men who have sex with men.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate and characterise meningococcal carriage among healthy men who have sex with men (MSM) within a screening programme for Neisseria gonorrhoeae infection at the San Gallicano Dermatological Institute, Italy. METHODS: A total of 441 MSM attending the STI/HIV Centre of the San Gallicano Institute, Rome, Italy, in 2016 were routinely screened for N. gonorrhoeae infection by pharyngeal and rectal swabs. N. meningitidis isolates were evaluated for antibiotic susceptibility and characterised by whole genome sequencing. Genetic relationships among the meningococcal carriage isolates were determined using core genome multilocus sequence typing analysis. The soluble domain of AniA (sAniA) protein expression by western blotting was also evaluated. RESULTS: A total of 62 (14.1%, 95% CI 11.1 to 17.6) carriage meningococci were found among 441 MSM. Forty-three viable N. meningitidis isolates were cultivated (42 from pharyngeal and 1 from rectal swabs). All the viable isolates were susceptible to cefotaxime, ceftriaxone, ciprofloxacin and rifampicin. Four isolates were penicillin G-resistant and 73% of those penicillin G-susceptible showed a minimum inhibitory concentration from 0.064 µg/mL to 0.25 µg/mL. Serogroup B was the most frequent (44.2%), followed by Z (16.3%), E (9.3%), and Y and W (2.3%), respectively. Multilocus sequence typing analysis identified 29 sequence types belonging to 12 clonal complexes. The sAniA protein was expressed in 8 out of 28 (29%) screened meningococcal carriage isolates. CONCLUSIONS: Serogroup B meningococcal carriage identified from oral and anal specimens among healthy MSM was the most frequent serogroup identified in this study. Molecular evaluation revealed a degree of similarity among strains belonging to the same clonal complex.

Protective Role of Combined Polyphenols and Micronutrients against Influenza A Virus and SARS-CoV-2 Infection In Vitro.

Polyphenols have been widely studied for their antiviral effect against respiratory virus infections. Among these, resveratrol (RV) has been demonstrated to inhibit influenza virus replication and more recently, it has been tested together with pterostilbene against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. In the present work, we evaluated the antiviral activity of polydatin, an RV precursor, and a mixture of polyphenols and other micronutrients, named A5+, against influenza virus and SARS-CoV-2 infections. To this end, we infected Vero E6 cells and analyzed the replication of both respiratory viruses in terms of viral proteins synthesis and viral titration. We demonstrated that A5+ showed a higher efficacy in inhibiting both influenza virus and SARS-CoV-2 infections compared to polydatin treatment alone. Indeed, post infection treatment significantly decreased viral proteins expression and viral release, probably by interfering with any step of virus replicative cycle. Intriguingly, A5+ treatment strongly reduced IL-6 cytokine production in influenza virus-infected cells, suggesting its potential anti-inflammatory properties during the infection. Overall, these results demonstrate the synergic and innovative antiviral efficacy of A5+ mixture, although further studies are needed to clarify the mechanisms underlying its inhibitory effect.

Cross-reactivity of 4CMenB vaccine-induced antibodies against meningococci belonging to non-B serogroups in Italy.

The four-component meningococcal serogroup B vaccine (4CMenB) contains antigens present in the majority of meningococci causing invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) and may potentially offer protection against strains belonging to non-B serogroups.This study aimed to evaluate the ability of 4CMenB-induced antibodies to kill, in a human serum bactericidal assay (hSBA), non-B meningococci belonging to the main genotypes responsible for IMD in Italy.Meningococci, collected between 2015 and 2017, was characterized for PorA, FetA and sequence type, and for clonal complex. Twenty non-B isolates, representative of the most frequent genotypes, were molecularly characterized for 4CMenB antigens and tested in hSBA with sera from 4CMenB-vaccinated infants and adolescents.Among twenty isolates, eleven were serogroup C, five were Y, two W and two X. All isolates contained genes encoding for fHbp and NHBA antigens and four harbored the NadA full-length encoding gene. Positive hSBA titers were obtained against all serogroup W, X and Y isolates and against five serogroup C isolates.These data show that the 4CMenB vaccine can induce bactericidal antibodies against genetically representative meningococcal W, Y and X strains from Italy. For serogroup C, different susceptibilities to killing were observed for strains with similar antigenic repertoires.

Evaluation of the national surveillance system for invasive meningococcal disease, Italy, 2015-2018.

Enhanced laboratory-based surveillance of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) in Italy was only assessed indirectly by numerically comparing surveillance data cases with hospital discharge records (HDR). In this study, we evaluated the completeness, timeliness and sensitivity of the IMD surveillance in Italy from 2015 to 2018. Completeness and timeliness were described at the national and subnational level. A capture-recapture analysis was conducted to evaluate the sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) using HDR as the external source with a combination of deterministic and probabilistic approaches. The characteristics of the unmatched vs. matched cases were compared using multivariable Poisson modeling. Overall, the completeness of data improved, except for specific variables. Timeliness of notifications also improved to a median of 4 days from onset to reporting. For the years 2015-2017, the sensitivity of the surveillance was estimated at 71.4% and the PPV at 77.5%, changing to 80.6% and 66.9% respectively after removing cases with a secondary meningitis diagnosis. We noted substantial sub-national differences. In 2018 sensitivity was 66.5% (135/203) and the PPV was 79.4% (135/170). The adjusted relative risk of being unmatched in 2015-2017 was higher in cases that were ≥60 years, had missing information or symptom onset in December. The IMD surveillance system overall performs well with completeness and timeliness improving in time. Specific challenges identified for individual variables should guide further improvement. Notwithstanding limitations posed by the comparison database, sensitivity and PPV are promising. The study highlights that promoting etiological ascertainment in people ≥60 years and addressing sub-national challenges are the main current challenges to address.

Gene flow and Bayesian phylogeography of serogroup C meningococci circulating in Italy.

INTRODUCTION: Hyperinvasive strains of Neisseria meningitidis serogroup C have caused outbreaks of severe disease in Italy. Here, we report the analysis of the migration patterns of C:P1.5-1,10-8:F3-6:ST-11(cc11) meningococcal strains from different Italian regions collected between 2012 and 2017. METHODS: N. meningitidis genomes were sequenced through the whole genome sequencing (WGS) method and were analyzed using the BIGSdb Genome Comparator tool. The phylogeography was performed using BEAST. The gene flows in Italy were tested by using MacClade. RESULTS: The C:P1.5-1,10-8:F3-6:ST-11(cc11) hyperinvasive meningococcal strain, for the data available at the time of the analysis, from UK reached at first Emilia Romagna region, and then, in 2012, was detected in the outbreak occurred in the port of Livorno. The "Tuscany-outbreak strain" was likely introduced in Italy between 2013 and 2014. Most of the observed gene flow events occurred from the Center to Northern part of Italy. DISCUSSION: The phylogeographic analysis allowed to track the dissemination of C:P1.5-1,10-8:F3-6:ST-11(cc11) strains in the country.

Estimates of the reproductive numbers and demographic reconstruction of outbreak associated with C:P1.5-1,10-8:F3-6:ST-11(cc11) Neisseria meningitidis strains.

BACKGROUND: Neisseria meningitidis can cause sporadic cases and outbreaks of invasive disease, including meningitis and sepsis. The meningococcal serogroup C (MenC) is the second most common serogroup in Italy after MenB. In this study we have estimated the reproductive numbers and the demographic reconstruction on the genomes of invasive N. meningitidis C:P1.5-1,10-8:F3-6:ST-11(cc11) strains isolated in Italy in 2012 - 2017, a period that includes the outbreak in Tuscany. METHODS: The genomes of N. meningitidis were sequenced using the Illumina MiSeq platform, through the whole genome sequencing (WGS) method and were analyzed by the core genome MLST (cgMLST) approach, using the BIGSdb Genome Comparator tool implemented on the PubMLST website. A Bayesian method was applied to study population dynamics across the entire N. meningitidis dataset. The basic reproduction number R0, which indicates the average number of secondary cases generated by a single primary case, was calculated using a Bayesian method, on the dataset and on the two subsets. The effective reproduction number R(t), defined as the average number of secondary cases per infectious case in a population, made up of susceptible and non-susceptible hosts was studied on the Tuscany dataset, with a Bayesian method. RESULTS: An increase in the effective number of the N. meningitidis infections was observed between 2013 and 2016. The estimated R0 parameter was 1.31 (95% HPD: 1.03 - 1.64), 1.22 (95% HPD: 0.90 - 1.64) and 1.4 (95% HPD: 0.91 - 1.9) for the entire dataset, first and second subset, respectively. The BDSKY estimated an initial R(t) of about 2.0 (95% HPD: 0.04 - 5.0), which showed a growing trend at the end of 2014, reaching an average value of 3.22 in 2015, and then declining below 1 from the year 2016. CONCLUSION: Monitoring the effective reproduction number can help to inform future vaccination strategies. The increase in the reproductive number for the Tuscany dataset, was consistent with the amplification event that led to the Tuscany outbreak. Subsequently, the intervention that led to the decline of the cases was followed, suggesting a high effectiveness of the vaccination campaign.

Reconstruction of Dispersal Patterns of Hypervirulent Meningococcal Strains of Serogroup C:cc11 by Phylogenomic Time Trees.

Neisseria meningitidis is one of the few commensal bacteria that can even cause large epidemics of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD). N. meningitis serogroup C belonging to the hypervirulent clonal complex 11 (cc11) represents an important public health threat worldwide. We reconstructed the dispersal patterns of hypervirulent meningococcal strains of serogroup C:cc11 by phylogenomic time trees. In particular, we focused the attention on the epidemic dynamics of C:P1.5.1,10-8:F3-6;ST-11(cc11) meningococci causing outbreaks, as occurred in the Tuscany region, Italy, in 2015 to 2016. A phylogeographic analysis was performed through a Bayesian method on 103 Italian and 208 foreign meningococcal genomes. The C:P1.5.1,10-8:F3-6;ST-11(cc11) genotype dated back to 1995 (1992 to 1998) in the United Kingdom. Two main clades of the hypervirulent genotype were identified in Italy. The Tuscany outbreak isolates were included in different clusters in a specific subclade which originated in the United Kingdom around 2011 and was introduced in Tuscany in 2013 to 2014. In this work, phylogeographic analysis allowed the identification of multiple introductions of these strains in several European countries and connections with extra-European areas. Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) combined with phylogeography enables us to track the dissemination of meningococci and their transmission. The C:P1.5.1,10-8:F3-6;ST-11(cc11) genotype analysis revealed how a hypervirulent strain may be introduced in previously naïve areas, causing a large and long-lasting outbreak.