RESUMEN
Displaced supracondylar humeral fractures (SCHFs) benefit from closed reduction and percutaneous pinning. In Malawi, many SCHFs are treated nonoperatively because of limited surgical capacity. We sought to assess clinical and functional outcomes of nonoperatively treated SCHFs in a resource-limited setting. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed all patients with SCHFs treated at Nkhotakota District Hospital (NKKDH) in Malawi between January 2014 and December 2016. Patients subsequently underwent clinical and functional follow-up assessment. RESULTS: We identified 182 children (54% male, mean age of 7 years) with an SCHF; 151 (83%) of the fractures were due to a fall, and 178 (98%) were extension-type (Gartland class distribution: 63 [35%] type I, 52 [29%] type II, and 63 [35%] type III). Four patients with type-I fractures were treated with an arm sling alone, and 59 were treated with straight-arm traction to reduce swelling and then splint immobilization until union. All 119 of the patients with Gartland type-II and III or flexion-type injuries were treated with straight-arm traction, manipulation under anesthesia without fluoroscopy, and then splint immobilization until union. A total of 137 (75%) of the patients were available for follow-up, at a mean of 3.9 years after injury. The Flynn functional outcome was excellent for 39 (95%) with a type-I fracture, 30 (70%) with type-II, and 14 (29%) with type-III. The Flynn cosmetic outcome was excellent for 40 (98%) with a type-I fracture, 42 (98%) with type-II, and 41 (84%) with type-III. Forty (98%) of the children with a type-I fracture, 41 (95%) with type-II, and 32 (65%) with type-III returned to school without limitation. Controlling for sex, delayed presentation, medical comorbidities, injury mechanism, and skin blistering/superinfection during traction, patients with type-II fractures were 5.82-times more likely (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.71 to 19.85) and those with type-III fractures were 9.81-times more likely (95% CI, 3.00 to 32.04), to have a clinical complication or functional limitation compared with patients with type-I fractures. CONCLUSIONS: Nonoperative treatment of type-III SCHFs resulted in a high risk of clinical complications or functional impairment. These results illustrate the urgent need to increase surgical capacity in low-income countries like Malawi to improve pediatric fracture care. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Therapeutic Level III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.
RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Accurate, individualized prognostication in patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) is vital for patient counseling and treatment decision making. With the emergence of human papillomavirus (HPV) as an important biomarker in OPSCC, calculators incorporating this variable have been developed. However, it is critical to characterize their accuracy prior to implementation. METHODS: Four OPSCC calculators were identified that integrate HPV into their estimation of 5-year overall survival. Treatment outcomes for 856 patients with OPSCC who were evaluated at a single institution from 2003 through 2016 were analyzed. Predicted survival probabilities were generated for each patient using each calculator. Calculator performance was assessed and compared using Kaplan-Meier plots, receiver operating characteristic curves, concordance statistics, and calibration plots. RESULTS: Correlation between pairs of calculators varied, with coefficients ranging from 0.63 to 0.90. Only 3 of 6 pairs of calculators yielded predictions within 10% of each other for at least 50% of patients. Kaplan-Meier curves of calculator-defined risk groups demonstrated reasonable stratification. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 0.74 to 0.80, and concordance statistics ranged from 0.71 to 0.78. Each calculator demonstrated superior discriminatory ability compared with clinical staging according to the seventh and eighth editions of the American Joint Committee on Cancer staging manual. Among models, the Denmark calculator was found to be best calibrated to observed outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Existing calculators exhibited reasonable estimation of survival in patients with OPSCC, but there was considerable variability in predictions for individual patients, which limits the clinical usefulness of these calculators. Given the increasing role of personalized treatment in patients with OPSCC, further work is needed to improve accuracy and precision, possibly through the identification and incorporation of additional biomarkers.
