Pharmacokinetics, Safety, and Tolerability of Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Monoclonal Antibody, Sotrovimab, Delivered Intravenously or Intramuscularly in Japanese and Caucasian Healthy Volunteers.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Sotrovimab 500 mg administered by a single intravenous (IV) infusion has been granted special approval for emergency use in Japan for treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection in adults and children aged ≥ 12 years weighing ≥ 40 kg. This Phase 1, single-dose study investigated the pharmacokinetics, safety, and tolerability of IV or intramuscular (IM) sotrovimab 500 mg doses versus placebo in healthy Japanese and Caucasian volunteers. METHODS: This was a two-part, Phase 1, randomized, placebo-controlled, single-blind study. In Part 1, participants received a single sotrovimab 500 mg IV infusion or matching placebo on Day 1. In Part 2, participants received a single sotrovimab 500 mg IM dose or matching placebo on Day 1, administered as two 4 mL injections. RESULTS: There was no effect of ethnicity on the peak or total serum exposure of IV sotrovimab through Week 18; after adjusting for body weight, the point estimate and 90 % confidence interval for the ratio of total exposure between Japanese and Caucasian participants fell within conventional bioavailability bounds (80-125%). Geometric mean Cmax and AUClast following a single IM administration of sotrovimab were higher in Japanese participants compared with Caucasian participants, even after adjustment for body weight. Overall, a single IV or IM dose of sotrovimab was well tolerated by both Japanese and Caucasian participants. CONCLUSIONS: After adjusting for body weight, exposures following a single IV dose of sotrovimab 500 mg were similar between Japanese and Caucasian participants, and higher in Japanese participants following IM administration. Higher exposures were not associated with any safety signals. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.Gov: NCT04988152.

Population Dose-Response-Time Analysis of Itch Reduction and Patient-Reported Tolerability Supports Phase III Dose Selection for Linerixibat.

Increase in serum bile acids (BAs) in patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) may play a causal role in cholestatic pruritus (itch). Linerixibat is a selective small molecule inhibitor of the ileal bile acid transporter, which blocks re-absorption of BAs in the gastrointestinal tract thereby lowering BAs in the systemic circulation and reducing itch. One consequence is excess BAs in the colon, leading to diarrhea and abdominal pain. GLIMMER (NCT02966834) was a placebo-controlled phase IIb dose-ranging trial of linerixibat once (q.d.) or twice daily (b.i.d.) in adults with moderate to severe pruritus and PBC. To determine the optimal dose for maximum itch reduction while minimizing diarrhea, a kinetic-pharmacodynamic (k-PD) model was developed using data from GLIMMER. The PD end point modeled was worst daily itch, derived from itch score reported by patients b.i.d. A proportional odds model was developed post hoc to indicate the probability of diarrhea occurrence, a patient-reported outcome (GI-5) recorded weekly. The final k-PD model successfully described the effects of linerixibat and placebo on itch. Model simulations were consistent with the observed dose-dependent increase in the average number of itch responders (patients with a ≥ 2-point improvement in itch). This was paralleled by a dose-dependent increase in the probability of higher diarrhea frequency scores. The b.i.d. dosing regimens led to a modest increase in the number of itch responders as compared with q.d. dosing. This quantitative framework highlights the trade-off between benefit and tolerability and supported the selection of 40 mg b.i.d. in the phase III GLISTEN trial (NCT04950127).

Impact of antibiotic pharmacokinetics in urine on recurrent bacteriuria following treatment of complicated urinary tract infections.

The clinical relevance of bacteriuria following antibiotic treatment of complicated urinary tract infections in clinical trials remains controversial. We evaluated the impact of urine pharmacokinetics on the timing of recurrent bacteriuria in a recently completed trial that compared oral tebipenem pivoxil hydrobromide to intravenous ertapenem. The urinary clearance and urine dwell time of ertapenem were prolonged relative to tebipenem and were associated with a temporal difference in the repopulation of bladder urine with bacteria following treatment, potentially confounding the assessment of efficacy.

Intramuscular vs Intravenous SARS-CoV-2 Neutralizing Antibody Sotrovimab for Treatment of COVID-19 (COMET-TAIL): A Randomized Noninferiority Clinical Trial.

Background: Convenient administration of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) treatment in community settings is desirable. Sotrovimab is a pan-sarbecovirus dual-action monoclonal antibody formulated for intravenous (IV) or intramuscular (IM) administration for early treatment of mild/moderate COVID-19. Method: This multicenter phase 3 study based on a randomized open-label design tested the noninferiority of IM to IV administration according to an absolute noninferiority margin of 3.5%. From June to August 2021, patients aged ≥12 years with COVID-19, who were neither hospitalized nor receiving supplemental oxygen but were at high risk for progression, were randomized 1:1:1 to receive sotrovimab as a single 500-mg IV infusion or a 500- or 250-mg IM injection. The primary composite endpoint was progression to (1) all-cause hospitalization for >24 hours for acute management of illness or (2) all-cause death through day 29. Results: Sotrovimab 500 mg IM was noninferior to 500 mg IV: 10 (2.7%) of 376 participants vs 5 (1.3%) of 378 met the primary endpoint, respectively (absolute adjusted risk difference, 1.06%; 95% CI, -1.15% to 3.26%). The 95% CI upper limit was lower than the prespecified noninferiority margin of 3.5%. The 250-mg IM group was discontinued early because of the greater proportion of hospitalizations vs the 500-mg groups. Serious adverse events occurred in <1% to 2% of participants across groups. Four participants experienced serious disease-related events and died (500 mg IM, 2/393, <1%; 250 mg IM, 2/195, 1%). Conclusions: Sotrovimab 500-mg IM injection was well tolerated and noninferior to IV administration. IM administration could expand outpatient treatment access for COVID-19. Clinical Trials Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04913675.

Comparative analysis of PD-1 target engagement of dostarlimab and pembrolizumab in advanced solid tumors using ex vivo IL-2 stimulation data.

Dostarlimab (JEMPERLI) is an anti-programmed cell death protein-1 (PD-1) monoclonal antibody (mAb) which is approved by the US Food and Drug Administration for patients with recurrent/advanced mismatch repair-deficient solid tumors, including endometrial cancer, following progression on prior treatment, with approval based on data from the phase I GARNET trial. To support dostarlimab dose regimen recommendations, we estimated and compared the potency of dostarlimab relative to anti-PD-1 mAb pembrolizumab using both data published from the KEYNOTE-001 trial of pembrolizumab and data from the GARNET trial. PD-1 target engagement was assessed ex vivo in blood samples via a super antigen staphylococcal enterotoxin B stimulation assay and interleukin-2 (IL-2) stimulation ratios calculated for dostarlimab. A non-linear mixed-effect sigmoid maximum effect inhibitory model was fitted to dostarlimab IL-2 stimulation ratios using extracted pembrolizumab data as informative priors. The estimated half-maximal effective concentration was 1.95 µg ml-1 (95% credibility interval: 0.21-5.87) for dostarlimab and 1.59 µg ml-1 (95% confidence interval: 0.42-6.12) for pembrolizumab. These findings suggest dostarlimab and pembrolizumab to be equipotent for peripheral PD-1 suppression based on analysis of ex vivo IL-2 stimulation ratios. Accounting for a three-fold dilution between serum and tumor, a target dostarlimab trough concentration of ~54 µg ml-1 would be needed for 90% suppression in the tumor. These data support the use of dostarlimab as a potent PD-1 suppressor and the recommended dostarlimab monotherapy dose regimen of 500 mg Q3W ×4 cycles followed by 1000 mg Q6W thereafter in recurrent/advanced solid tumors.

A Phase 1 randomized study of GSK3732394, an investigational long-acting biologic treatment regimen for HIV-1 infection.

BACKGROUND: The GSK3732394 multivalent protein was developed as a novel, long-acting, antiretroviral biologic treatment regimen with three independent, non-cross-resistant mechanisms for inhibiting HIV-1 entry. METHODS: A single-centre, Phase 1, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled study was conducted in healthy volunteers, using a 2-part adaptive study design: in Part 1, participants were randomized to receive subcutaneous injection of GSK3732394 or placebo (3:1) as single ascending doses (10-mg starting dose); in Part 2, participants were intended to receive multiple ascending doses. Primary and secondary objectives included safety, pharmacokinetics (PK) and pharmacodynamics (PD; cluster of differentiation four receptor occupancy [CD4 RO]) of GSK3732394 in healthy adults; PK/PD results in healthy volunteers were used to project HIV-1 treatment success. RESULTS: The most frequently reported adverse event was injection site reactions (ISRs; 8/18 [44%]). Most ISRs were mild (Grade 1-2; n = 7); one participant experienced a Grade 3 ISR (erythema ≥10 cm). All ISRs were delayed in onset (after Day 10). GSK3732394 demonstrated linear PK across all cohorts. Clearance was faster than expected, and PK/PD results were lower than expected, with the maximum dose investigated (80 mg) achieving mean trough CD4 RO of ∼25% on Day 7. The study was terminated as the PK/PD model linking PK and CD4 RO indicated that the maximum planned doses would not achieve the desired therapeutic profile. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated successful deployment of PK/PD dose relationships in the design and conduct of clinical trials by leveraging the findings toward predicting probability of success, resulting in appropriate early termination (ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03984812).

Antibody therapy reverses biological signatures of COVID-19 progression.

Understanding who is at risk of progression to severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is key to clinical decision making and effective treatment. We study correlates of disease severity in the COMET-ICE clinical trial that randomized 1:1 to placebo or to sotrovimab, a monoclonal antibody for the treatment of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection (ClinicalTrials.gov04545060). Laboratory parameters identify study participants at greater risk of severe disease, including a high neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), a negative SARS-CoV-2 serologic test, and whole-blood transcriptome profiles. Sotrovimab treatment is associated with normalization of NLR and the transcriptomic profile and with a decrease of viral RNA in nasopharyngeal samples. Transcriptomics provides the most sensitive detection of participants who would go on to be hospitalized or die. To facilitate timely measurement, we identify a 10-gene signature with similar predictive accuracy. We identify markers of risk for disease progression and demonstrate that normalization of these parameters occurs with antibody treatment of established infection.

Effect of Sotrovimab on Hospitalization or Death Among High-risk Patients With Mild to Moderate COVID-19: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Older patients and those with comorbidities who are infected with SARS-CoV-2 may be at increased risk of hospitalization and death. Sotrovimab is a neutralizing antibody for the treatment of high-risk patients to prevent COVID-19 progression. Objective: To evaluate the efficacy and adverse events of sotrovimab in preventing progression of mild to moderate COVID-19 to severe disease. Design, Setting, and Participants: Randomized clinical trial including 1057 nonhospitalized patients with symptomatic, mild to moderate COVID-19 and at least 1 risk factor for progression conducted at 57 sites in Brazil, Canada, Peru, Spain, and the US from August 27, 2020, through March 11, 2021; follow-up data were collected through April 8, 2021. Interventions: Patients were randomized (1:1) to an intravenous infusion with 500 mg of sotrovimab (n = 528) or placebo (n = 529). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the proportion of patients with COVID-19 progression through day 29 (all-cause hospitalization lasting >24 hours for acute illness management or death); 5 secondary outcomes were tested in hierarchal order, including a composite of all-cause emergency department (ED) visit, hospitalization of any duration for acute illness management, or death through day 29 and progression to severe or critical respiratory COVID-19 requiring supplemental oxygen or mechanical ventilation. Results: Enrollment was stopped early for efficacy at the prespecified interim analysis. Among 1057 patients randomized (median age, 53 years [IQR, 42-62], 20% were ≥65 years of age, and 65% Latinx), the median duration of follow-up was 103 days for sotrovimab and 102 days for placebo. All-cause hospitalization lasting longer than 24 hours or death was significantly reduced with sotrovimab (6/528 [1%]) vs placebo (30/529 [6%]) (adjusted relative risk [RR], 0.21 [95% CI, 0.09 to 0.50]; absolute difference, -4.53% [95% CI, -6.70% to -2.37%]; P < .001). Four of the 5 secondary outcomes were statistically significant in favor of sotrovimab, including reduced ED visit, hospitalization, or death (13/528 [2%] for sotrovimab vs 39/529 [7%] for placebo; adjusted RR, 0.34 [95% CI, 0.19 to 0.63]; absolute difference, -4.91% [95% CI, -7.50% to -2.32%]; P < .001) and progression to severe or critical respiratory COVID-19 (7/528 [1%] for sotrovimab vs 28/529 [5%] for placebo; adjusted RR, 0.26 [95% CI, 0.12 to 0.59]; absolute difference, -3.97% [95% CI, -6.11% to -1.82%]; P = .002). Adverse events were infrequent and similar between treatment groups (22% for sotrovimab vs 23% for placebo); the most common events were diarrhea with sotrovimab (n = 8; 2%) and COVID-19 pneumonia with placebo (n = 22; 4%). Conclusions and Relevance: Among nonhospitalized patients with mild to moderate COVID-19 and at risk of disease progression, a single intravenous dose of sotrovimab, compared with placebo, significantly reduced the risk of a composite end point of all-cause hospitalization or death through day 29. The findings support sotrovimab as a treatment option for nonhospitalized, high-risk patients with mild to moderate COVID-19, although efficacy against SARS-CoV-2 variants that have emerged since the study was completed is unknown. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04545060.

Therapeutic index of inhaled corticosteroids in asthma: A dose-response comparison on airway hyperresponsiveness and adrenal axis suppression.

AIMS: To compare the airway potency, systemic activity and therapeutic index of three inhaled corticosteroids that differ in glucocorticoid receptor binding affinity, physicochemical and pharmacokinetic properties. METHODS: This escalating-dose, placebo-controlled, cross-over study randomised adults with asthma to 1 or 2 treatment periods with ≥25 days washout in-between. Each treatment period comprised five 7-day dose escalations (µg/d): fluticasone furoate (FF; 25 → 100 → 200 → 400 → 800), fluticasone propionate (FP; 50 → 200 → 500 → 1000 → 2000), budesonide (BUD; 100 → 400 → 800 → 1600 → 3200) or placebo. Airway hyperresponsiveness to adenosine-5'-monophosphate (AMP PC20 ) was assessed on day 8. Plasma cortisol was assessed on day 1 (predose baseline) and from pre-PM dose on day 6 to pre-PM dose day 7 (24-h weighted mean). RESULTS: Fifty-four subjects were randomised. FF showed greater airway potency than FP and BUD (AMP PC20 dose at which 50% of the maximum effect is achieved [ED50 ] values: 48.52, 1081.27 and 1467.36 µg/d, respectively). Systemic activity (cortisol suppression) ED50 values were 899.99, 1986.05 and 1927.42 µg/d, respectively. The therapeutic index (ED50 cortisol suppression/ED50 AMP PC20 ) was wider for FF (18.55) than FP (1.84) and BUD (1.31). FF 100 µg/d and 200 µg/d were both comparable in terms of airway potency with high doses of FP (≥1000 µg twice daily [BID]) and BUD (≥1500 µg/BID). The systemic activity of FF 100 µg/d and 200 µg/d (cortisol suppression: 7.41% and 14.28%, respectively) was comparable with low doses of FP (100 µg/BID and 250 µg/BID) and BUD (100 µg/BID and 200 µg/BID). CONCLUSION: This study provides evidence that FF can provide more protection against airway hyperresponsiveness, with less systemic activity, than FP or BUD. This suggests that all inhaled corticosteroids are not therapeutically similar and may differ in their therapeutic index. (203162; NCT02991859).

Subcutaneous mepolizumab in children aged 6 to 11 years with severe eosinophilic asthma.

OBJECTIVES: There are no published reports for anti-interleukin-5 therapy in children <12 years with asthma. The primary objective of this study was to characterize the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of mepolizumab following subcutaneous (SC) administration in children 6 to 11 years-of-age with severe eosinophilic asthma. HYPOTHESIS: Mepolizumab SC pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics in children with severe eosinophilic asthma are comparable with adults. STUDY DESIGN: Multinational, nonrandomised, open-label (NCT02377427). PATIENT SELECTION: Children 6 to 11 years-of-age with severe eosinophilic asthma (blood eosinophil count ≥150 cells/µL at screening or ≥300 cells/µL <12 months of screening) and ≥2 exacerbations in the prior year. METHODOLOGY: Children received mepolizumab SC 40 mg (bodyweight <40 kg) or 100 mg (≥40 kg) every 4 weeks for 12 weeks. RESULTS: Thirty-six children received mepolizumab (40 mg, n = 26; 100 mg, n = 10). Mepolizumab exposures were higher and apparent clearance lower than predicted based on prior existing data. Derived mepolizumab exposures normalized to mean bodyweight for the 40 mg and 100 mg dose groups were 454 µg * day/mL and 675 µg * day/mL, respectively. At week 12, blood eosinophils were reduced by 89% and 83% from baseline to 42 and 55 cells/µL, respectively. Mepolizumab was well tolerated; no new safety signals were observed compared with previous adult/adolescent studies. CONCLUSION: In children 6 to 11 years-of-age with severe eosinophilic asthma, mepolizumab SC 40 or 100 mg provided bodyweight-adjusted drug exposure within twofold of target adult exposure as well as marked reductions to blood eosinophil counts similar to adults, and although not designed to evaluate efficacy outcomes, demonstrated a positive clinical profile.

Targeting B-cell maturation antigen with GSK2857916 antibody-drug conjugate in relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma (BMA117159): a dose escalation and expansion phase 1 trial.

BACKGROUND: B-cell maturation antigen (BCMA) is a cell-surface receptor of the tumour necrosis superfamily required for plasma cell survival. BMCA is universally detected on patient-derived myeloma cells and has emerged as a selective antigen to be targeted by novel treatments in multiple myeloma. We assessed the safety, tolerability, and preliminary clinical activity of GSK2857916, a novel anti-BCMA antibody conjugated to microtubule-disrupting agent monomethyl auristatin F, in patients with relapsed and refractory multiple myeloma. METHODS: We did an international, multicentre, open-label, first-in-human phase 1 study with dose escalation (part 1) and dose expansion (part 2) phases, at nine centres in the USA, Canada, and the UK. Adults with histologically or cytologically confirmed multiple myeloma, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status 0 or 1, and progressive disease after stem cell transplantation, alkylators, proteasome inhibitors, and immunomodulators were recruited for this study. In part 1, patients received GSK2857916 (0·03-4·60 mg/kg) through 1 h intravenous infusions once every 3 weeks. In part 2, patients received the selected recommended phase 2 dose of GSK2857916 (3·40 mg/kg) once every 3 weeks. Primary endpoints were maximum tolerated dose and recommended phase 2 dose. Secondary endpoints for part 2 included preliminary anti-cancer clinical activity. All patients who received one or more doses were included in this prespecified administrative interim analysis (data cutoff date June 26, 2017), which was done for internal purposes. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02064387, and is ongoing, but closed for recruitment. FINDINGS: Between July 29, 2014, and Feb 21, 2017, we treated 73 patients: 38 patients in the dose-escalation part 1 and 35 patients in the dose-expansion part 2. There were no dose-limiting toxicities and no maximum tolerated dose was identified in part 1. On the basis of safety and clinical activity, we selected 3·40 mg/kg as the recommended phase 2 dose. Corneal events were common (20 [53%] of 38 patients in part 1 and 22 [63%] of 35 in part 2); most (18 [47%] in part 1 and 19 [54%] in part 2) were grade 1 or 2 and resulted in two treatment discontinuations in part 1 and no discontinuations in part 2. The most common grade 3 or 4 events were thrombocytopenia (13 [34%] of 38 patients in part 1 and 12 [34%] of 35 in part 2) and anaemia (6 [16%] in part 1 and 5 [14%] in part 2). There were 12 treatment-related serious adverse events and no treatment-related deaths. In part 2, 21 (60·0%; 95% CI 42·1-76·1) of 35 patients achieved an overall response. INTERPRETATION: At the identified recommended phase 2 dose, GSK2857916 was well tolerated and had good clinical activity in heavily pretreated patients, thereby indicating that this might be a promising candidate for the treatment of relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma. FUNDING: GlaxoSmithKline.

Subcutaneous ofatumumab in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: The MIRROR study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess dose-response effects of the anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody ofatumumab on efficacy and safety outcomes in a phase 2b double-blind study of relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis (RMS). METHODS: Patients (n = 232) were randomized to ofatumumab 3, 30, or 60 mg every 12 weeks, ofatumumab 60 mg every 4 weeks, or placebo for a 24-week treatment period, with a primary endpoint of cumulative number of new gadolinium-enhancing lesions (per brain MRI) at week 12. Relapses and safety/tolerability were assessed, and CD19+ peripheral blood B-lymphocyte counts measured. Safety monitoring continued weeks 24 to 48 with subsequent individualized follow-up evaluating B-cell repletion. RESULTS: The cumulative number of new lesions was reduced by 65% for all ofatumumab dose groups vs placebo (p < 0.001). Post hoc analysis (excluding weeks 1-4) estimated a ≥90% lesion reduction vs placebo (week 12) for all cumulative ofatumumab doses ≥30 mg/12 wk. Dose-dependent CD19 B-cell depletion was observed. Notably, complete depletion was not necessary for a robust treatment effect. The most common adverse event was injection-related reactions (52% ofatumumab, 15% placebo), mild to moderate severity in 97%, most commonly associated with the first dose and diminishing on subsequent dosing. CONCLUSION: Imaging showed that all subcutaneous ofatumumab doses demonstrated efficacy (most robust: cumulative doses ≥30 mg/12 wk), with a safety profile consistent with existing ofatumumab data. This treatment effect also occurred with dosage regimens that only partially depleted circulating B cells. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class I evidence that for patients with RMS, ofatumumab decreases the number of new MRI gadolinium-enhancing lesions 12 weeks after treatment initiation.

Reduced need for surgery in severe nasal polyposis with mepolizumab: Randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Patients with eosinophilic nasal polyposis frequently require surgery, and recurrence rates are high. OBJECTIVE: We sought to assess the efficacy and safety of mepolizumab versus placebo for severe bilateral nasal polyposis. METHODS: This randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial recruited patients aged 18 to 70 years with recurrent nasal polyposis requiring surgery. Patients received 750 mg of intravenous mepolizumab or placebo every 4 weeks for a total of 6 doses in addition to daily topical corticosteroid treatment. The primary end point was the number of patients no longer requiring surgery at Week 25 based on a composite end point of endoscopic nasal polyp score and nasal polyposis severity visual analog scale (VAS) score. Secondary end points included change in nasal polyposis severity VAS score, endoscopic nasal polyp score, improvement in individual VAS symptoms (rhinorrhea, mucus in throat, nasal blockage, and sense of smell), patient-reported outcomes, and safety. RESULTS: One hundred five patients received mepolizumab (n = 54) or placebo (n = 51). A significantly greater proportion of patients in the mepolizumab group compared with the placebo group no longer required surgery at Week 25 (16 [30%] vs 5 [10%], respectively; P = .006). There was a significant improvement in nasal polyposis severity VAS score, endoscopic nasal polyp score, all individual VAS symptom scores, and Sino-Nasal Outcome Test patient-reported outcome score in the mepolizumab compared with placebo groups. Mepolizumab's safety profile was comparable with that of placebo. CONCLUSION: In patients with recurrent nasal polyposis receiving topical corticosteroids who required surgery, mepolizumab treatment led to a greater reduction in the need for surgery and a greater improvement in symptoms than placebo.

Modeling Alzheimer's disease progression using the disease system analysis approach.

A novel mechanistic model based on a disease system analysis paradigm was developed to explore the role of homeostatic mechanisms involved in Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression. We used longitudinal AD Assessment Scale-cognitive subscale (ADAS-cog) scores from 926 subjects with AD on stable acetylcholinesterase inhibitor therapy randomized to placebo treatment in two 54-week clinical trials. Alternative mechanistic models were evaluated by assuming that the rate of change of ADAS-cog over time was jointly regulated by a process characterizing the deterioration of ADAS-cog and by a process associated with a compensatory regulatory response. The model based on a time-varying deterioration rate of ADAS-cog performed better than the model based on a time-varying homeostatic control. The covariate analysis indicated that baseline Mini-Mental State Examination score, education, age, and apolipoprotein ɛ4 genotype had a significant effect on the level and shape of the trajectories of the mean model predicted ADAS-cog change from baseline.

Risk factors for the transmission of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in an adult intensive care unit: fitting a model to the data.

Little is known about the amount of cross-transmission, the risk factors for infection, and the relative effectiveness of infection control procedures when methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infection occurs at highly endemic levels in intensive care units. A cohort study was done to identify exposures associated with cases that likely were the result of cross-transmission (i.e., occurring in clusters and with indistinguishable MRSA macrorestriction profiles). Fitting a simple stochastic model to the ascertained data allowed prediction of the effectiveness of infection control measures. Exposure to relative staff deficit (adjusted rate ratio, 1.05 independent; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.09) was the only factor significantly associated with potential transmission (P =.001). It was predicted that a 12% improvement in adherence to hand-hygiene policies might have compensated for staff shortage and prevented transmission during periods of overcrowding, shared care, and high workload but that this would be hard to achieve.