RESUMEN
Protected areas are a critical tool to conserve biodiversity in the face of the global crisis of species extinction. Here, we present the first ever management effectiveness assessment of Pakistan's Protected Areas (PAs). We link these assessments to the delivery of conservation outcomes focusing on the threatened Western Tragopan (Tragopan melanocephalus) endemic to Pakistan and India. We used two approaches, first mapping the spatial distribution of potential habitat coverage using machine learning ensemble models and second, an assessment of the management effectiveness of protected areas. Our results show that only Machiara National Park scored just above 40% (indicating relatively weak management), 22 of the PAs fell within the 25-50% quantile (indicating weak management), and 3 scored below 25% (indicating poor management). PAs within the species distributional range covered 92,387 ha which is only 2% of the total potential habitat of the Tragopan. Scoring of Planning element was insufficient both in term of the site and species. Likewise, inputs (e.g., research and monitoring program, staff numbers, staff training, current budget, security of budget, and management after process) were also inadequate. Finally, we recommend the establishment of more protected areas within the species potential habitat and inclusion of species-specific plans in Pakistan's PAs management.
RESUMEN
An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.
RESUMEN
Kashmir musk deer Moschus cupreus (KMD) are the least studied species of musk deer. We compiled genetically validated occurrence records of KMD to construct species distribution models using Maximum Entropy. We show that the distribution of KMD is limited between central Nepal on the east and north-east Afghanistan on the west and is primarily determined by precipitation of driest quarter, annual mean temperature, water vapor, and precipitation during the coldest quarter. Precipitation being the most influential determinant of distribution suggests the importance of pre-monsoon moisture for growth of the dominant vegetation, Himalayan birch Betula utilis and Himalayan fir Abies spectabilis, in KMD's preferred forests. All four Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios result an expansion of suitable habitat in Uttarakhand, India, west Nepal and their associated areas in China in 2050s and 2070s but a dramatic loss of suitable habitat elsewhere (Kashmir region and Pakistan-Afghanistan border). About 1/4th of the current habitat will remain as climate refugia in future. Since the existing network of protected areas will only include a tiny fraction (4%) of the climatic refugia of KMD, the fate of the species will be determined by the interplay of more urgent short-term forces of poaching and habitat degradation and long-term forces of climate change.