Calibration and sensitivity analysis of a novel water flow and pollution model for future city planning: Future Urban Stormwater Simulation (FUSS).

Planning for future urban development and water infrastructure is uncertain due to changing human activities and climate. To quantify these changes, we need adaptable and fast models that can reliably explore scenarios without requiring extensive data and inputs. While such models have been recently considered for urban development, they are lacking for stormwater pollution assessment. This work proposes a novel Future Urban Stormwater Simulation (FUSS) model, utilizing a previously developed urban planning algorithm (UrbanBEATS) to dynamically assess pollution changes in urban catchments. By using minimal input data and adding stochastic point-source pollution to the build-up/wash-off approach, this study highlights calibration and sensitivity analysis of flow and pollution modules, across the range of common stormwater pollutants. The results highlight excellent fit to measured values in a continuous rainfall simulation for the flow model, with one significant calibration parameter. The pollution model was more variable, with TSS, TP and Pb showing high model efficiency, while TN was predicted well only across event-based assessment. The work further explores the framework for the model application in future pollution assessment, and points to the future work aiming to developing land-use dependent model parameter sets, to achieve flexibility for model application across varied urban catchments.

Illicit discharge detection in stormwater drains using an Arduino-based low-cost sensor network.

Illicit discharges in urban stormwater drains are a major environmental concern that deteriorate downstream waterway health. Conventional detection methods such as stormwater drain visual inspection and dye testing have fundamental drawbacks and limitations which can prevent easy location and elimination of illegal discharges in a catchment. We deployed 22 novel low-cost level, temperature and conductivity sensors across an urban catchment in Melbourne for a year to monitor the distributed drainage network, thereby detecting likely illicit discharges ranging from a transitory flow with less than 10 minutes to persistent flows lasting longer than 20 hours. We discuss rapid deployment methods, real-time data collection and online processing. The ensemble analysis of all dry weather flow data across all sites indicates that: (i) large uncertainties are associated with discharge frequency, duration, and variation in water quality within industrial and residential land uses; (ii) most dry weather discharges are intermittent and transient flows which are difficult to detect and not simply due to cross-connections with the sewerage network; (iii) detectable diurnal discharge patterns can support mitigation efforts, including policies and regulatory measures (e.g., enforcement or education) to protect receiving waterways; and, (iv) that it is possible to cost effectively isolate sources of dry weather pollution using a distributed sensor network.

Integrated modelling of stormwater treatment systems uptake.

Nature-based solutions provide a variety of benefits in growing cities, ranging from stormwater treatment to amenity provision such as aesthetics. However, the decision-making process involved in the installation of such green infrastructure is not straightforward, as much uncertainty around the location, size, costs and benefits impedes systematic decision-making. We developed a model to simulate decision rules used by local municipalities to install nature-based stormwater treatment systems, namely constructed wetlands, ponds/basins and raingardens. The model was used to test twenty-four scenarios of policy-making, by combining four asset selection, two location selection and three budget constraint decision rules. Based on the case study of a local municipality in Metropolitan Melbourne, Australia, the modelled uptake of stormwater treatment systems was compared with attributes of real-world systems for the simulation period. Results show that the actual budgeted funding is not reliable to predict systems' uptake and that policy-makers are more likely to plan expenditures based on installation costs. The model was able to replicate the cumulative treatment capacity and the location of systems. As such, it offers a novel approach to investigate the impact of using different decision rules to provide environmental services considering biophysical and economic factors.

Modelling transitions in urban water systems.

Long term planning of urban water infrastructure requires acknowledgement that transitions in the water system are driven by changes in the urban environment, as well as societal dynamics. Inherent to the complexity of these underlying processes is that the dynamics of a system's evolution cannot be explained by linear cause-effect relationships and cannot be predicted under narrow sets of assumptions. Planning therefore needs to consider the functional behaviour and performance of integrated flexible infrastructure systems under a wide range of future conditions. This paper presents the first step towards a new generation of integrated planning tools that take such an exploratory planning approach. The spatially explicit model, denoted DAnCE4Water, integrates urban development patterns, water infrastructure changes and the dynamics of socio-institutional changes. While the individual components of the DAnCE4Water model (i.e. modules for simulation of urban development, societal dynamics and evolution/performance of water infrastructure) have been developed elsewhere, this paper presents their integration into a single model. We explain the modelling framework of DAnCE4Water, its potential utility and its software implementation. The integrated model is validated for the case study of an urban catchment located in Melbourne, Australia.

The development of a novel approach for assessment of the first flush in urban stormwater discharges.

The management of stormwater pollution has placed particular emphasis on the first flush phenomenon. However, definition and current methods of analyses of the phenomena contain serious limitations, the most important being their inability to capture a possible impact of the event size (total event volume) on the first flush. This paper presents the development of a novel approach in defining and assessing the first flush that should overcome these problems. The phenomenon is present in a catchment if the decrease in pollution concentration with the absolute cumulative volume of runoff from the catchment is statistically significant. Using data from seven diverse catchments around Melbourne, Australia, changes in pollutant concentrations for Total Suspended Solids (TSS) and Total Nitrogen (TN) were calculated over the absolute cumulative runoff and aggregated from a collection of different storm events. Due to the discrete nature of the water quality data, each concentration was calculated as a flow-weighted average at 2 mm runoff volume increments. The aggregated concentrations recorded in each increment (termed as a 'slice' of runoff) were statistically compared to each other across the absolute cumulative runoff volume. A first flush is then defined as the volume at which concentrations reach the 'background concentration' (i.e. the statistically significant minimum). Initial results clearly highlight first flush and background concentrations in all but one catchment supporting the validity of this new approach. Future work will need to address factors, which will help assess the first flush's magnitude and volume. Sensitivity testing and correlation with catchment characteristics should also be undertaken.

Cardiac involvement in Friedreich's ataxia: a clinical study of 75 patients.

To establish the prevalence and to characterize the types of cardiac involvement in Friedreich's ataxia, 75 consecutive patients (39 male and 36 female), aged 10 to 66 years (mean 24) were prospectively studied. Electrocardiograms were performed in all patients, vectorcardiograms in 34 and echocardiograms in 58. Electrocardiographic and vectorcardiographic abnormalities occurred in 69 (92%) of the 75 patients. Electrocardiograms revealed ST-T wave abnormalities in 79%, right axis deviation in 40%, short PR interval in 24%, abnormal R wave in lead V1 in 20%, abnormal inferolateral Q waves in 14% and left ventricular hypertrophy (voltage and repolarization criteria) in 16%. Echocardiograms revealed concentric left ventricular hypertrophy in 11%, asymmetric septal hypertrophy in 9% and globally decreased left ventricular function in 7%. Progression from a normal echocardiogram to concentric left ventricular hypertrophy, asymmetric septal hypertrophy or globally decreased left ventricular function was identified in one patient in each category, although the study was not designed for longitudinal follow-up. Two patients died, and necropsy revealed in both a minimally dilated but flabby left ventricle. On the basis of electrocardiographic and vectorcardiographic and echocardiographic data, 95% of patients had one or more disorders. The most common abnormality was segmental myocardial "dystrophy" (electrocardiographic QRS initial force abnormalities), but global left ventricular hypokinesia occurred more often than previously recognized.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Elevated CK-MB and CK-BB in serum and tumor homogenate of a patient with lung cancer.

Elevated serum levels of creatine kinase (CK) were found in a patient with small-(oat) cell carcinoma of the lung. Fractionation of the enzyme showed markedly elevated CK-MB and CK-BB isoenzymes. Clinical and subsequent pathological examination showed no evidence of infarction, inflammation, or tumor involvement of the heart; however, analysis of tumor tissue for CK showed predominance of CK-MB and CK-BB isoenzymes, thus implicating tumor as the source of the circulating levels of CK-MB and CK-BB. Our case is the first to document CK-MB from neoplastic tissue homogenates, and illustrates that markedly elevated circulating levels of CK-MB, or increased levels of CK-MB in combination with CK-BB may point away from a myocardial source, and toward the existence of a malignancy.