Recommendations for quantifying and reducing uncertainty in climate projections of species distributions.

Projecting the future distributions of commercially and ecologically important species has become a critical approach for ecosystem managers to strategically anticipate change, but large uncertainties in projections limit climate adaptation planning. Although distribution projections are primarily used to understand the scope of potential change-rather than accurately predict specific outcomes-it is nonetheless essential to understand where and why projections can give implausible results and to identify which processes contribute to uncertainty. Here, we use a series of simulated species distributions, an ensemble of 252 species distribution models, and an ensemble of three regional ocean climate projections, to isolate the influences of uncertainty from earth system model spread and from ecological modeling. The simulations encompass marine species with different functional traits and ecological preferences to more broadly address resource manager and fishery stakeholder needs, and provide a simulated true state with which to evaluate projections. We present our results relative to the degree of environmental extrapolation from historical conditions, which helps facilitate interpretation by ecological modelers working in diverse systems. We found uncertainty associated with species distribution models can exceed uncertainty generated from diverging earth system models (up to 70% of total uncertainty by 2100), and that this result was consistent across species traits. Species distribution model uncertainty increased through time and was primarily related to the degree to which models extrapolated into novel environmental conditions but moderated by how well models captured the underlying dynamics driving species distributions. The predictive power of simulated species distribution models remained relatively high in the first 30 years of projections, in alignment with the time period in which stakeholders make strategic decisions based on climate information. By understanding sources of uncertainty, and how they change at different forecast horizons, we provide recommendations for projecting species distribution models under global climate change.

Development of a predation index to assess trophic stability in the Gulf of Alaska.

Predation can have substantial and long-term effects on the population dynamics of ecologically important prey. Diverse predator assemblages, however, may produce stabilizing (i.e., portfolio) effects on prey mortality when consumption varies asynchronously among predators. We calculated spatiotemporal variation in predation on a dominant forage species to quantify synchrony and portfolio effects in a food web context and better understand diversity-stability relationships in a large marine ecosystem that has undergone considerable changes in community composition. We selected Walleye Pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus) as our case study because they support some of the largest, most valuable commercial fisheries in the world and serve as essential prey for an array of economically and culturally important species. Thus, there are sufficient data for Pollock with which to test ecological theories in an empirical setting. Spatially explicit predation indices accounted for annual variation in predator biomass, bioenergetics-based rations, and age-specific proportions of Pollock consumed by a suite of groundfishes in the Gulf of Alaska (1990-2015). We found that Arrowtooth Flounder (Atheresthes stomias) was, by far, the dominant Pollock predator (proportional consumption: 0.74 ± 0.14). We also found synchronous trends in consumption among predator species, indicating a lack of portfolio effects at the basin scale. This combination of a single dominant predator and synchronous consumption dynamics suggests strong top-down control over Pollock in the Gulf of Alaska, though the degree of synchrony was highly variable at all spatial scales. Whereas synchrony generally increased in the western subregion, consumption in the central Gulf of Alaska became less synchronous through time. This suggests diminished trophic stability in one area and increased stability in another, thereby emphasizing the importance of spatiotemporal heterogeneity in maintaining food web structure and function. Finally, total Pollock consumption was highly variable (ranging from 1.87 to 7.63 Tg) and often exceeded assessment-based estimates of productivity. We assert that using our holistic and empirically derived predation index as a modifier of assumed constant natural mortality would provide a practical method for incorporating ecological information into single-species stock assessments.

Assessing the potential for competition between Pacific Halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis) and Arrowtooth Flounder (Atheresthes stomias) in the Gulf of Alaska.

Pacific Halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis) support culturally and economically important fisheries in the Gulf of Alaska, though recent decreases in mean size-at-age have substantially reduced fishery yields, generating concerns among stakeholders and resource managers. Among the prevailing hypotheses for reduced size-at-age is intensified competition with Arrowtooth Flounder (Atheresthes stomias), a groundfish predator that exhibited nearly five-fold increases in biomass between the 1960s and mid-2010s. To assess the potential for competition between Pacific Halibut and Arrowtooth Flounder, we evaluated their degree of spatiotemporal and dietary overlap in the Gulf of Alaska using bottom trawl survey and food habits data provided by the Alaska Fisheries Science Center (NOAA; 1990 to 2017). We restricted analyses to fish measuring 30 to 69 cm fork length and used a delta modeling approach to quantify species-specific presence-absence and catch-per-unit-effort as a function of survey year, tow location, depth, and bottom temperature. We then calculated an index of spatial overlap across a uniform grid by multiplying standardized predictions of species' abundance. Dietary overlap was calculated across the same uniform grid using Schoener's similarity index. Finally, we assessed the relationship between spatial and dietary overlap as a measure of resource partitioning. We found increases in spatial overlap, moving from east to west in the Gulf of Alaska (eastern: 0.13 ± 0.20; central: 0.21 ± 0.11; western: 0.31 ± 0.13 SD). Dietary overlap was low throughout the study area (0.13 ± 0.20 SD). There was no correlation between spatial and dietary overlap, suggesting an absence of resource partitioning along the niche dimensions examined. This finding provides little indication that competition with Arrowtooth Flounder was responsible for changes in Pacific Halibut alHHsize-at-age in the Gulf of Alaska; however, it does not rule out competitive interactions that may have affected resource use prior to standardized data collection or at different spatiotemporal scales.

Variation in responses of fishes across multiple reserves within a network of marine protected areas in temperate waters.

Meta-analyses of field studies have shown that biomass, density, species richness, and size of organisms protected by no-take marine reserves generally increase over time. The magnitude and timing of changes in these response variables, however, vary greatly and depend upon the taxonomic groups protected, size and type of reserve, oceanographic regime, and time since the reserve was implemented. We conducted collaborative, fishery-independent surveys of fishes for seven years in and near newly created marine protected areas (MPAs) in central California, USA. Results showed that initially most MPAs contained more and larger fishes than associated reference sites, likely due to differences in habitat quality. The differences between MPAs and reference sites did not greatly change over the seven years of our study, indicating that reserve benefits will be slow to accumulate in California's temperate eastern boundary current. Fishes in an older reserve that has been closed to fishing since 1973, however, were significantly more abundant and larger than those in associated reference sites. This indicates that reserve benefits are likely to accrue in the California Current ecosystem, but that 20 years or more may be needed to detect significant changes in response variables that are due to MPA implementation. Because of the high spatial and temporal variability of fish recruitment patterns, long-term monitoring is needed to identify positive responses of fishes to protection in the diverse set of habitats in a dynamic eastern boundary current. Qualitative estimates of response variables, such as would be obtained from an expert opinion process, are unlikely to provide an accurate description of MPA performance. Similarly, using one species or one MPA as an indicator is unlikely to provide sufficient resolution to accurately describe the performance of multiple MPAs.

Characterization of deepwater invertebrates at Isla del Coco National Park and Las Gemelas Seamount, Costa Rica / Caracterización de invertebrados de aguas profundas en el Parque Nacional Isla del Coco y Monte Submarino Las Gemelas, Costa Rica

The deepwater faunas of oceanic islands and seamounts of the Eastern Tropical Pacific are poorly known. From 11-22 September 2009, we conducted an exploration of the deepwater areas around Isla del Coco National Park and Las Gemelas Seamount, located about 50km southwest of Isla del Coco, Costa Rica using a manned submersible to survey the seafloor habitats. The goal of the exploration was to characterize the habitats and biota, and conduct quantitative surveys of the deepwater portions of Isla del Coco National Park and Las Gemelas. We completed a total of 22 successful submersible dives, spanning more than 80hr underwater, and collected a total of 36hr of video. With respect to invertebrates, our objectives were to gather quantitative information on species composition, density, distribution and habitat associations as well as to compare the invertebrate communities between the two sites. A total of 7 172 invertebrates were counted from analysis of the video collected on this project. Larger organisms were counted and placed into 27 taxonomic groups to characterize the deepwater invertebrate fauna of Las Gemelas Seamount and Isla del Coco National Park. The Shannon-Weiner Index for biodiversity (H’) was calculated to be 0.14 ± 0.02 for Isla del Coco and 0.07 ± 0.03 for Las Gemelas surveys. Although richness was fairly equal between the two sites, evenness was greater at Isla del Coco (J = 0.04 ± 0.006) when compared to Las Gemelas (J = 0.02 ± 0.01). This lower level of evenness in the community at Las Gemelas was a result of high densities of a few dominant species groups, specifically sea urchins and black corals. We also evaluated invertebrate percent cover at both Isla del Coco and Las Gemelas Seamount with respect to habitat type, slope and rugosity. Results indicated that highly rugose habitats contained the highest frequencies of all invertebrates at both sites, with the exception of glass sponges and polychaetes at Isla del Coco, which were found in greater quantities at intermediate levels of rugosity. Information obtained from these submersible surveys indicate that seamounts in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean may be an important source of biodiversity and that more quantitative surveys are needed to characterize the fauna of the region.

La fauna de aguas profundas de islas oceánicas y de montes submarinos del Pacífico Tropical Oriental son muy poco conocidas. Para caracterizar las faunas de aguas profundas del Parque Nacional Isla del Coco y el Monte Submarino Las Gemelas, Costa Rica, llevamos a cabo un estudio cuantitativo de los hábitats y su fauna. Se tomaron videos de transectos desde un sumergible entre 50 y 402m de profundidad del 11 al 22 de setiembre 2009. Se recolectó información cuantitativa de la composición de especies de invertebrados, densidad, distribución y hábitats asociados en ambas localidades y se comparó. Se contaron 7,172 invertebrados en los videos analizados, y se ubicaron en 27 categorías taxonómicas. El Índice de Shannon-Weiner (H’) fue de 0.14 ± 0.02 para la Isla del Coco y 0.07 ± 0.03 para Las Gemelas. La riqueza fue parecida en ambos sitios pero la equitabilidad fue mayor en la Isla del Coco (J = 0.04 ± 0.006) comparado con Las Gemelas (J = 0.02 ± 0.01). Este menor nivel de equitabilidad en Las gemelas de debió a la alta densidad de unos pocos grupos dominantes, específicamente erizos de mar y coral negro. También evaluamos el porcentaje de cobertura de los invertebrados con respecto a tipo de hábitat, pendiente y rugosidad del sustrato. Los resultados indican que hábitats con alta rugosidad contiene más invertebrados en ambos sitios, excepto la esponjas silíceas y los poliquetos en la Isla del Coco, que se encontraron en mayor cantidad en niveles intermedios de rugosidad. La información obtenida con este estudio indican que los montes submarinos en el Pacífico Tropical Oriental pueden ser una fuente importante de biodiversidad y que se necesitan más estudios cuantitativos para caracterizar la fauna de la región.