Using Named Entity Recognition to Identify Substances Used in the Self-medication of Opioid Withdrawal: Natural Language Processing Study of Reddit Data.

BACKGROUND: The cessation of opioid use can cause withdrawal symptoms. People often continue opioid misuse to avoid these symptoms. Many people who use opioids self-treat withdrawal symptoms with a range of substances. Little is known about the substances that people use or their effects. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to validate a methodology for identifying the substances used to treat symptoms of opioid withdrawal by a community of people who use opioids on the social media site Reddit. METHODS: We developed a named entity recognition model to extract substances and effects from nearly 4 million comments from the r/opiates and r/OpiatesRecovery subreddits. To identify effects that are symptoms of opioid withdrawal and substances that are potential remedies for these symptoms, we deduplicated substances and effects by using clustering and manual review, then built a network of substance and effect co-occurrence. For each of the 16 effects identified as symptoms of opioid withdrawal in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition, we identified the 10 most strongly associated substances. We classified these pairs as follows: substance is a Food and Drug Administration-approved or commonly used treatment for the symptom, substance is not often used to treat the symptom but could be potentially useful given its pharmacological profile, substance is a home or natural remedy for the symptom, substance can cause the symptom, or other or unclear. We developed the Withdrawal Remedy Explorer application to facilitate the further exploration of the data. RESULTS: Our named entity recognition model achieved F1 scores of 92.1 (substances) and 81.7 (effects) on hold-out data. We identified 458 unique substances and 235 unique effects. Of the 130 potential remedies strongly associated with withdrawal symptoms, 54 (41.5%) were Food and Drug Administration-approved or commonly used treatments for the symptom, 17 (13.1%) were not often used to treat the symptom but could be potentially useful given their pharmacological profile, 13 (10%) were natural or home remedies, 7 (5.4%) were causes of the symptom, and 39 (30%) were other or unclear. We identified both potentially promising remedies (eg, gabapentin for body aches) and potentially common but harmful remedies (eg, antihistamines for restless leg syndrome). CONCLUSIONS: Many of the withdrawal remedies discussed by Reddit users are either clinically proven or potentially useful. These results suggest that this methodology is a valid way to study the self-treatment behavior of a web-based community of people who use opioids. Our Withdrawal Remedy Explorer application provides a platform for using these data for pharmacovigilance, the identification of new treatments, and the better understanding of the needs of people undergoing opioid withdrawal. Furthermore, this approach could be applied to many other disease states for which people self-manage their symptoms and discuss their experiences on the web.

Incorporation of near-real-time hospital occupancy data to improve hospitalization forecast accuracy during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Public health decision makers rely on hospitalization forecasts to inform COVID-19 pandemic planning and resource allocation. Hospitalization forecasts are most relevant when they are accurate, made available quickly, and updated frequently. We rapidly adapted an agent-based model (ABM) to provide weekly 30-day hospitalization forecasts (i.e., demand for intensive care unit [ICU] beds and non-ICU beds) by state and region in North Carolina for public health decision makers. The ABM was based on a synthetic population of North Carolina residents and included movement of agents (i.e., patients) among North Carolina hospitals, nursing homes, and the community. We assigned SARS-CoV-2 infection to agents using county-level compartmental models and determined agents' COVID-19 severity and probability of hospitalization using synthetic population characteristics (e.g., age, comorbidities). We generated weekly 30-day hospitalization forecasts during May-December 2020 and evaluated the impact of major model updates on statewide forecast accuracy under a SARS-CoV-2 effective reproduction number range of 1.0-1.2. Of the 21 forecasts included in the assessment, the average mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 7.8% for non-ICU beds and 23.6% for ICU beds. Among the major model updates, integration of near-real-time hospital occupancy data into the model had the largest impact on improving forecast accuracy, reducing the average MAPE for non-ICU beds from 6.6% to 3.9% and for ICU beds from 33.4% to 6.5%. Our results suggest that future pandemic hospitalization forecasting efforts should prioritize early inclusion of hospital occupancy data to maximize accuracy.

Machine Learning for Medical Coding in Healthcare Surveys.

Objectives Medical coding, or the translation of healthcare information into numeric codes, is expensive and time intensive. This exploratory study evaluates the use of machine learning classifiers to perform automated medical coding for large statistical healthcare surveys.

Patterns of Twitter Behavior Among Networks of Cannabis Dispensaries in California.

BACKGROUND: Twitter represents a social media platform through which medical cannabis dispensaries can rapidly promote and advertise a multitude of retail products. Yet, to date, no studies have systematically evaluated Twitter behavior among dispensaries and how these behaviors influence the formation of social networks. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to characterize common cyberbehaviors and shared follower networks among dispensaries operating in two large cannabis markets in California. METHODS: From a targeted sample of 119 dispensaries in the San Francisco Bay Area and Greater Los Angeles, we collected metadata from the dispensary accounts using the Twitter API. For each city, we characterized the network structure of dispensaries based upon shared followers, then empirically derived communities with the Louvain modularity algorithm. Principal components factor analysis was employed to reduce 12 Twitter measures into a more parsimonious set of cyberbehavioral dimensions. Finally, quadratic discriminant analysis was implemented to verify the ability of the extracted dimensions to classify dispensaries into their derived communities. RESULTS: The modularity algorithm yielded three communities in each city with distinct network structures. The principal components factor analysis reduced the 12 cyberbehaviors into five dimensions that encompassed account age, posting frequency, referencing, hyperlinks, and user engagement among the dispensary accounts. In the quadratic discriminant analysis, the dimensions correctly classified 75% (46/61) of the communities in the San Francisco Bay Area and 71% (41/58) in Greater Los Angeles. CONCLUSIONS: The most centralized and strongly connected dispensaries in both cities had newer accounts, higher daily activity, more frequent user engagement, and increased usage of embedded media, keywords, and hyperlinks. Measures derived from both network structure and cyberbehavioral dimensions can serve as key contextual indicators for the online surveillance of cannabis dispensaries and consumer markets over time.

Utilizing Big Data and Twitter to Discover Emergent Online Communities of Cannabis Users.

Large shifts in medical, recreational, and illicit cannabis consumption in the United States have implications for personalizing treatment and prevention programs to a wide variety of populations. As such, considerable research has investigated clinical presentations of cannabis users in clinical and population-based samples. Studies leveraging big data, social media, and social network analysis have emerged as a promising mechanism to generate timely insights that can inform treatment and prevention research. This study extends a novel method called stochastic block modeling to derive communities of cannabis consumers as part of a complex social network on Twitter. A set of examples illustrate how this method can ascertain candidate samples of medical, recreational, and illicit cannabis users. Implications for research planning, intervention design, and public health surveillance are discussed.