Does the SORG Machine-learning Algorithm for Extremity Metastases Generalize to a Contemporary Cohort of Patients? Temporal Validation From 2016 to 2020.

BACKGROUND: The ability to predict survival accurately in patients with osseous metastatic disease of the extremities is vital for patient counseling and guiding surgical intervention. We, the Skeletal Oncology Research Group (SORG), previously developed a machine-learning algorithm (MLA) based on data from 1999 to 2016 to predict 90-day and 1-year survival of surgically treated patients with extremity bone metastasis. As treatment regimens for oncology patients continue to evolve, this SORG MLA-driven probability calculator requires temporal reassessment of its accuracy. QUESTION/PURPOSE: Does the SORG-MLA accurately predict 90-day and 1-year survival in patients who receive surgical treatment for a metastatic long-bone lesion in a more recent cohort of patients treated between 2016 and 2020? METHODS: Between 2017 and 2021, we identified 674 patients 18 years and older through the ICD codes for secondary malignant neoplasm of bone and bone marrow and CPT codes for completed pathologic fractures or prophylactic treatment of an impending fracture. We excluded 40% (268 of 674) of patients, including 18% (118) who did not receive surgery; 11% (72) who had metastases in places other than the long bones of the extremities; 3% (23) who received treatment other than intramedullary nailing, endoprosthetic reconstruction, or dynamic hip screw; 3% (23) who underwent revision surgery, 3% (17) in whom there was no tumor, and 2% (15) who were lost to follow-up within 1 year. Temporal validation was performed using data on 406 patients treated surgically for bony metastatic disease of the extremities from 2016 to 2020 at the same two institutions where the MLA was developed. Variables used to predict survival in the SORG algorithm included perioperative laboratory values, tumor characteristics, and general demographics. To assess the models' discrimination, we computed the c-statistic, commonly referred to as the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curve for binary classification. This value ranged from 0.5 (representing chance-level performance) to 1.0 (indicating excellent discrimination) Generally, an AUC of 0.75 is considered high enough for use in clinical practice. To evaluate the agreement between predicted and observed outcomes, a calibration plot was used, and the calibration slope and intercept were calculated. Perfect calibration would result in a slope of 1 and intercept of 0. For overall performance, the Brier score and null-model Brier score were determined. The Brier score can range from 0 (representing perfect prediction) to 1 (indicating the poorest prediction). Proper interpretation of the Brier score necessitates a comparison with the null-model Brier score, which represents the score for an algorithm that predicts a probability equal to the population prevalence of the outcome for each patient. Finally, a decision curve analysis was conducted to compare the potential net benefit of the algorithm with other decision-support methods, such as treating all or none of the patients. Overall, 90-day and 1-year mortality were lower in the temporal validation cohort than in the development cohort (90 day: 23% versus 28%; p < 0.001, and 1 year: 51% versus 59%; p<0.001). RESULTS: Overall survival of the patients in the validation cohort improved from 28% mortality at the 90-day timepoint in the cohort on which the model was trained to 23%, and 59% mortality at the 1-year timepoint to 51%. The AUC was 0.78 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.82) for 90-day survival and 0.75 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.79) for 1-year survival, indicating the model could distinguish the two outcomes reasonably. For the 90-day model, the calibration slope was 0.71 (95% CI 0.53 to 0.89), and the intercept was -0.66 (95% CI -0.94 to -0.39), suggesting the predicted risks were overly extreme, and that in general, the risk of the observed outcome was overestimated. For the 1-year model, the calibration slope was 0.73 (95% CI 0.56 to 0.91) and the intercept was -0.67 (95% CI -0.90 to -0.43). With respect to overall performance, the model's Brier scores for the 90-day and 1-year models were 0.16 and 0.22. These scores were higher than the Brier scores of internal validation of the development study (0.13 and 0.14) models, indicating the models' performance has declined over time. CONCLUSION: The SORG MLA to predict survival after surgical treatment of extremity metastatic disease showed decreased performance on temporal validation. Moreover, in patients undergoing innovative immunotherapy, the possibility of mortality risk was overestimated in varying severity. Clinicians should be aware of this overestimation and discount the prediction of the SORG MLA according to their own experience with this patient population. Generally, these results show that temporal reassessment of these MLA-driven probability calculators is of paramount importance because the predictive performance may decline over time as treatment regimens evolve. The SORG-MLA is available as a freely accessible internet application at https://sorg-apps.shinyapps.io/extremitymetssurvival/ .Level of Evidence Level III, prognostic study.

Prognostic Significance of Percentage and Size of Dedifferentiation in Dedifferentiated Chondrosarcoma.

Dedifferentiated chondrosarcoma is rare, aggressive, and microscopically bimorphic. How pathologic features such as the amounts of dedifferentiation affect prognosis remains unclear. We evaluated the percentages and sizes of dedifferentiation in a consecutive institutional series of dedifferentiated chondrosarcomas from 1999 to 2021. The statistical analysis included cox proportional hazard models and log-rank tests. Of the 67 patients (26 women, 41 men; age, 39 to >89 [median 61] years; 2 with Ollier disease), 58 presented de novo; 9 were identified with conventional chondrosarcomas 0.6-13.2 years (median, 5.5 years) prior. Pathologic fracture and distant metastases were noted in 27 and 7 patients at presentation. The tumors involved the femur (n = 27), pelvis (n = 22), humerus (n = 7), tibia (n = 4), scapula/ribs (n = 4), spine (n = 2), and clivus (n = 1). In the 56 resections, the tumors ranged in size from 3.5 to 46.0 cm (median, 11.5 cm) and contained 1%-99.5% (median, 70%) dedifferentiated components that ranged in size from 0.6 to 24.0 cm (median, 7.3 cm). No correlation was noted between total size and percentage of dedifferentiation. The dedifferentiated components were typically fibrosarcomatous or osteosarcomatous, whereas the associated cartilaginous components were predominantly grade 1-2, rarely enchondromas or grade 3. The entire cohort's median overall survival and progression-free survival were 11.8 and 5.4 months, respectively. In the resected cohort, although the total size was not prognostic, the percentage of dedifferentiation ≥20% and size of dedifferentiation >3.0 cm each predicted worse overall survival (9.9 vs 72.5 months; HR, 3.76; 95% CI, 1.27-11.14; P = .02; 8.7 vs 58.9 months; HR, 3.03; 95% CI, 1.21-7.57; P = .02, respectively) and progression-free survival (5.3 vs 62.1 months; HR, 3.05; 95% CI, 1.13-8.28; P = .03; 5.3 vs 56.6 months; HR, 2.50; 95% CI, 1.06-5.88; P = .04, respectively). In conclusion, both the percentages and sizes of dedifferentiation were better prognostic predictors than total tumor sizes in dedifferentiated chondrosarcomas, highlighting the utility of their pathologic evaluations.

What Are the Functional and Surgical Outcomes of Tibial Turnup-plasty for Salvage in Patients With Chronic Lower Extremity Infection?

BACKGROUND: Tibial turnup-plasty is a rarely performed surgical option for large bone defects of the distal or entire femur and can serve as an alternative to hip disarticulation or high above-knee amputation. It entails pedicled transport of the ipsilateral tibia with or without the proximal hindfoot for use as a vascularized autograft. It is rotated 180° in the coronal or sagittal plane to the remaining proximal femur or pelvis, augmenting the functional length of the thigh. Prior reports consist of small case series with heterogeneous surgical techniques. Patient-reported outcome measures after the procedure have not been reported, and ambulatory status after the procedure is also unknown. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES: (1) What proportion of patients underwent reoperation after tibial turnup-plasty? (2) What is the ambulatory status and what proportion of patients used a prosthesis after tibial turnup-plasty? (3) What are the Patient-Reported Outcome Measurement Information System (PROMIS) Global-10 mental and physical function scores after tibial turnup-plasty? METHODS: A retrospective analysis was performed of 11 patients who underwent tibial turnup-plasty between 2003 and 2021 by a single orthopaedic oncology division in collaboration with a reconstructive plastic surgery team. Nine patients were men, with a median age of 55 years (range 34 to 75 years). All had chronic infections after arthroplasty or oncologic reconstructions, with a median number of 13 surgeries before turnup-plasty. All were considered to have no other surgical options other than hip disarticulation or high transfemoral amputation. All patients who were offered this possibility accepted it. Data of interest included patient demographics and comorbidities, surgical history that led to limb compromise, medical and surgical perioperative complications, date of prosthesis fitting, and functional capacity at the most recent follow-up interval based on ambulatory status and PROMIS Global-10 mental and physical function scores. The statistical analysis was descriptive. RESULTS: The median number of reoperations after turnup-plasty was one (range 0 to 11). Of the six patients who underwent at least one reoperation, indications for surgery included wound infection (four patients), nonunion of the osteosynthesis site (two), heterotopic ossification (one), tumor recurrence (one), and flap hypoperfusion treated with local tissue revision (one). One patient underwent conversion to external hemipelvectomy for tumor recurrence. Ten of the 11 patients were ambulatory at the final follow-up interval with standard above-knee amputation prostheses. Two ambulated unassisted, four used a single crutch or cane, and four used two crutches or a walker. Of the nine patients for whom scores were available, the median PROMIS Global-10 physical and mental health scores were 48 (range 30 to 68) and 53 (range 41 to 68), both within the standard deviation of the population mean of 50. CONCLUSION: The tibial turnup-plasty is a complex surgical option for patients with large bone defects of the femur for whom there are no alternative surgeries capable of producing residual extremities with acceptable functional length. This should be viewed as a procedure of last resort to avoid a hip disarticulation or a high transfemoral amputation in patients who have typically undergone numerous prior operations. Although ambulation with a prosthesis within 1 year can be expected, almost all patients will require an assistive device to do so, and reoperations are frequent. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level IV, therapeutic study.

Pedicled vastus lateralis myocutaneous flap for sacropelvic defects after wide oncologic resection: Wound complications and outcomes.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Adequate coverage of the soft tissue defects from wide resection of sacropelvic malignancies remains challenging. The vastus lateralis flap has been described for coverage in the setting of trauma and infection. This flap has not been described for coverage of sacropelvic tumor defects. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study of adult patients who underwent wide resection of a primary sacropelvic malignancy with reconstruction employing a pedicled vastus lateralis flap at two tertiary care centers. Patient demographics, tumor staging, and rate of complications were assessed. RESULTS: Twenty-eight patients were included, with a median age of 51 years. The most common primary tumor was chondrosarcoma followed by chondroblastic osteosarcoma. The median follow-up was 1.1 years. There were 10 cases of wound infection requiring re-operation and three cases of flap failure. CONCLUSIONS: We describe a pedicled vastus lateralis flap for coverage of defects after wide resection of sacropelvic malignancies. A large proportion of our cohort had independent risk factors for wound complications. Even with a cohort with high baseline risk for wound complications, we show that the use of a pedicled vastus lateralis flap is a safe reconstructive option with a wound complication rate in line with the literature.