A dataset of recorded electricity outages by United States county 2014-2022.

In this Data Descriptor, we present county-level electricity outage estimates at 15-minute intervals from 2014 to 2022. By 2022 92% of customers in the 50 US States, Washington DC, and Puerto Rico are represented. These data have been produced by the Environment for Analysis of Geo-Located Energy Information (EAGLE-ITM), a geographic information system and data visualization platform created at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to map the population experiencing electricity outages every 15 minutes at the county level. Although these data do not cover every US customer, they represent the most comprehensive outage information ever compiled for the United States. The rate of coverage increases through time between 2014 and 2022. We present a quantitative Data Quality Index for these data for the years 2018-2022 to demonstrate temporal changes in customer coverage rates by FEMA region and indicators of data collection gaps or other errors.

Near real time monitoring and forecasting for COVID-19 situational awareness.

In the opening months of the pandemic, the need for situational awareness was urgent. Forecasting models such as the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model were hampered by limited testing data and key information on mobility, contact tracing, and local policy variations would not be consistently available for months. New case counts from sources like John Hopkins University and the NY Times were systematically reliable. Using these data, we developed the novel COVID County Situational Awareness Tool (CCSAT) for reliable monitoring and decision support. In CCSAT, we developed a retrospective seven-day moving window semantic map of county-level disease magnitude and acceleration that smoothed noisy daily variations. We also developed a novel Bayesian model that reliably forecasted county-level magnitude and acceleration for the upcoming week based on population and new case count data. Together these formed a robust operational update including county-level maps of new case rate changes, estimates of new cases in the upcoming week, and measures of model reliability. We found CCSAT provided stable, reliable estimates across the seven-day time window, with the greatest errors occurring in cases of anomalous, single day spikes. In this paper, we provide CCSAT details and apply it to a single week in June 2020.

Exploiting deep learning and volunteered geographic information for mapping buildings in Kano, Nigeria.

Buildings in the developing world are inadequately mapped. Lack of such critical geospatial data adds unnecessary challenges to locating and reaching a large segment of the world's most vulnerable population, impeding sustainability goals ranging from disaster relief to poverty reduction. Use of volunteered geographic information (VGI) has emerged as a widely accepted source to fill such voids. Despite its promise, availability of building maps for developing countries significantly lags behind demand. We present a new approach, coupling deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) with VGI for automating building map generation from high-resolution satellite images for Kano state, Nigeria. Specifically, we trained a CNN with VGI building outlines of limited quality and quantity and generated building maps for a 50,000 km2 area. Resulting maps are in strong agreement with existing settlement maps and require a fraction of the manual input needed for the latter. The VGI-based maps will provide support across multiple facets of socioeconomic development in Kano state, and demonstrates potential advancements in current mapping capabilities in resource constrained countries.

Census-independent population mapping in northern Nigeria.

Although remote sensing has long been used to aid in the estimation of population, it has usually been in the context of spatial disaggregation of national census data, with the census counts serving both as observational data for specifying models and as constraints on model outputs. Here we present a framework for estimating populations from the bottom up, entirely independently of national census data, a critical need in areas without recent and reliable census data. To make observations of population density, we replace national census data with a microcensus, in which we enumerate population for a sample of small areas within the states of Kano and Kaduna in northern Nigeria. Using supervised texture-based classifiers with very high resolution satellite imagery, we produce a binary map of human settlement at 8-meter resolution across the two states and then a more refined classification consisting of 7 residential types and 1 non-residential type. Using the residential types and a model linking them to the population density observations, we produce population estimates across the two states in a gridded raster format, at approximately 90-meter resolution. We also demonstrate a simulation framework for capturing uncertainty and presenting estimates as prediction intervals for any region of interest of any size and composition within the study region. Used in concert with previously published demographic estimates, our population estimates allowed for predictions of the population under 5 in ten administrative wards that fit strongly with reference data collected during polio vaccination campaigns.

US cities can manage national hydrology and biodiversity using local infrastructure policy.

Cities are concentrations of sociopolitical power and prime architects of land transformation, while also serving as consumption hubs of "hard" water and energy infrastructures. These infrastructures extend well outside metropolitan boundaries and impact distal river ecosystems. We used a comprehensive model to quantify the roles of anthropogenic stressors on hydrologic alteration and biodiversity in US streams and isolate the impacts stemming from hard infrastructure developments in cities. Across the contiguous United States, cities' hard infrastructures have significantly altered at least 7% of streams, which influence habitats for over 60% of North America's fish, mussel, and crayfish species. Additionally, city infrastructures have contributed to local extinctions in 260 species and currently influence 970 indigenous species, 27% of which are in jeopardy. We find that ecosystem impacts do not scale with city size but are instead proportionate to infrastructure decisions. For example, Atlanta's impacts by hard infrastructures extend across four major river basins, 12,500 stream km, and contribute to 100 local extinctions of aquatic species. In contrast, Las Vegas, a similar size city, impacts <1,000 stream km, leading to only seven local extinctions. So, cities have local policy choices that can reduce future impacts to regional aquatic ecosystems as they grow. By coordinating policy and communication between hard infrastructure sectors, local city governments and utilities can directly improve environmental quality in a significant fraction of the nation's streams reaching far beyond their city boundaries.

Locally adaptive, spatially explicit projection of US population for 2030 and 2050.

Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high-resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically informed spatial distribution of projected population of the contiguous United States for 2030 and 2050, depicting one of many possible population futures. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection model departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modeled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the US Census's projection methodology, with the US Census's official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include incorporating multiple various scenario-driven events to produce a range of spatially explicit population futures for suitability modeling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.

Analyses of school commuting data for exposure modeling purposes.

Human exposure models often make the simplifying assumption that school children attend school in the same census tract where they live. This paper analyzes that assumption and provides information on the temporal and spatial distributions associated with school commuting. The data were obtained using Oak Ridge National Laboratory's LandScan USA population distribution model applied to Philadelphia, PA. It is a high-resolution model used to allocate individual school-aged children to both a home and school location, and to devise a minimum-time home-to-school commuting path (called a trace) between the two locations. LandScan relies heavily on Geographic Information System (GIS) data. With respect to school children attending school in their home census tract, the vast majority does not in Philadelphia. Our analyses found that: (1) about 32% of the students walk across two or more census tracts going to school and 40% of them walk across four or more census blocks; and (2) 60% drive across four or more census tracts going to school and 50% drive across 10 or more census blocks. We also find that: (3) using a 5-min commuting time interval - as opposed to the modeled "trace" - results in misclassifying the "actual" path taken in 90% of the census blocks, 70% of the block groups, and 50% of the tracts; (4) a 1-min time interval is needed to reasonably resolve time spent in the various census unit designations; and (5) approximately 50% of both the homes and schools of Philadelphia school children are located within 160 m of highly traveled roads, and 64% of the schools are located within 200 m. These findings are very important when modeling school children's exposures, especially, when ascertaining the impacts of near-roadway concentrations on their total daily body burden. As many school children also travel along these streets and roadways to get to school, a majority of children in Philadelphia are in mobile source-dominated locations most of the day. We hypothesize that exposures of school children in Philadelphia to benzene and particulate matter will be much higher than if home and school locations and commuting paths at a 1-min time resolution are not explicitly modeled in an exposure assessment. Undertaking such an assessment will be the topic of a future paper.

Hyperspectral agricultural mapping using support vector machine-based endmember extraction (SVM-BEE).

Extracting endmembers from remotely-sensed images of vegetated areas can present difficulties. In this research, we applied a recently-developed endmember-extraction algorithm based on Support Vector Machines to the problem of semi-autonomous estimation of vegetation endmembers from a hyperspectral image. This algorithm, referred to as Support Vector Machine-Based Endmember Extraction (SVM-BEE), accurately and rapidly yields a computed representation of hyperspectral data that can accommodate multiple distributions. The number of distributions is identified without prior knowledge, based upon this representation. Prior work established that SVM-BEE is robustly noise-tolerant and can semi-automatically estimate endmembers; synthetic data and a geologic scene were previously analyzed. Here we compared the efficacies of SVM-BEE, N-FINDR, and SMACC algorithms in extracting endmembers from a real, predominantly-agricultural scene. SVM-BEE estimated vegetation and other endmembers for all classes in the image, which N-FINDR and SMACC failed to do. SVM-BEE was consistent in the endmembers that it estimated across replicate trials. Spectral angle mapper (SAM) classifications based on SVM-BEE-estimated endmembers were significantly more accurate compared with those based on N-FINDR- and (in general) SMACC-endmembers. Linear spectral unmixing accrued overall accuracies similar to those of SAM.

Global Distribution and Density of Constructed Impervious Surfaces.

We present the first global inventory of the spatial distribution and density ofconstructed impervious surface area (ISA). Examples of ISA include roads, parking lots,buildings, driveways, sidewalks and other manmade surfaces. While high spatialresolution is required to observe these features, the new product reports the estimateddensity of ISA on a one-km² grid based on two coarse resolution indicators of ISA - thebrightness of satellite observed nighttime lights and population count. The model wascalibrated using 30-meter resolution ISA of the USA from the U.S. Geological Survey.Nominally the product is for the years 2000-01 since both the nighttime lights andreference data are from those two years. We found that 1.05% of the United States landarea is impervious surface (83,337 km²) and 0.43 % of the world's land surface (579,703km²) is constructed impervious surface. China has more ISA than any other country(87,182 km²), but has only 67 m² of ISA per person, compared to 297 m² per person in theUSA. The distribution of ISA in the world's primary drainage basins indicates that watersheds damaged by ISA are primarily concentrated in the USA, Europe, Japan, China and India. The authors believe the next step for improving the product is to include reference ISA data from many more areas around the world.