Impacto sanitario de la prohibición total de publicidades de tabaco en argentina.

Health impact of the total ban on advertising of tobacco productsThe objective was to estimate the health impact of the total ban on advertising of tobacco products in terms of avoided cardiovascular events in those over 35 years of age in Argentina.The Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model (CVDPM) was used, which is a Markov simulation model used to represent and project mortality and morbidity due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the population aged 35 or over. It constitutes a demographic-epidemiological model, which represents the population between 35 and 95 years of age and uses a logistic regression model based on the Framingham equation to estimate the annual incidence of cardiovascular disease. We assumed that implementing a complete ban on the advertising of tobacco products would lead to a 9% reduction in tobacco consumption.The complete ban on advertising could prevent 15,164 deaths over a period of 10 years, of which 2610 would be the result of coronary heart disease and 747 due to stroke. These reductions would mean an annual decrease of 0.46% of total deaths, 0.60% of deaths from coronary heart disease and 0.33% in deaths from stroke. In addition, during the same period, it would avoid 6630 acute myocardial infarctions and 2851 strokes (reductions of 1.35% and 0.40%, respectively).We hope that these findings might contribute to the strengthening of sanitary tobacco control policies in Argentina based on the remarkable benefits of banning the advertising of tobacco products in full and in line with current global recommendations.

Sociodemographic Correlates of Contemporary Screen Time Use among 9- and 10-Year-Old Children.

OBJECTIVE: To determine sociodemographic correlates of contemporary screen time use among a diverse population-based sample of 9- and 10-year-old children. STUDY DESIGN: In 2021, we analyzed cross-sectional baseline (2016-2018) data from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development study (n = 10 755). Multiple linear regression analyses were conducted to estimate associations between sociodemographic factors (sex, race/ethnicity, country of birth, household income, parental education) and 6 contemporary forms of screen time (television, videos [eg, YouTube], video games, social networking, texting, and video chat). RESULTS: On average, children reported 3.99 hours of screen time per day across 6 modalities, with the most time spent watching/streaming television shows/movies (1.31 hours), playing video games (1.06 hours), and watching/streaming videos (1.05 hours). On average, Black children reported 1.58 more hours of screen time per day and Asian children reported 0.35 less hours of screen time per day compared with White children (mean 3.46 hours per day), and these trends persisted across most modalities. Boys reported higher overall screen time (0.75 hours more) than girls, which was primarily attributed to video games and videos. Girls reported more time texting, social networking, and video chatting than boys. Higher income was associated with lower screen time usage across all modalities except video chat. However, in high-income households, Latinx children reported 0.65 more hours of screen time per day than White children. CONCLUSIONS: Given the sociodemographic differences in child screen use, guideline implementation strategies can focus on key populations, encourage targeted counseling by pediatricians, and adapt Family Media Use Plans for diverse backgrounds.

Projected impact of a reduction in sugar-sweetened beverage consumption on diabetes and cardiovascular disease in Argentina: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption is associated with obesity, diabetes, and hypertension. Argentina is one of the major consumers of SSBs per capita worldwide. Determining the impact of SSB reduction on health will inform policy debates. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-Argentina (CVD Policy Model-Argentina), a local adaptation of a well-established computer simulation model that projects cardiovascular and mortality events for the population 35-94 years old, to estimate the impact of reducing SSB consumption on diabetes incidence, cardiovascular events, and mortality in Argentina during the period 2015-2024, using local demographic and consumption data. Given uncertainty regarding the exact amount of SSBs consumed by different age groups, we modeled 2 estimates of baseline consumption (low and high) under 2 different scenarios: a 10% and a 20% decrease in SSB consumption. We also included a range of caloric compensation in the model (0%, 39%, and 100%). We used Monte Carlo simulations to generate 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) around our primary outcome measures for each intervention scenario. Over the 2015-2024 period, a 10% reduction in SSBs with a caloric compensation of 39% is projected to reduce incident diabetes cases by 13,300 (95% UI 10,800-15,600 [low SSB consumption estimate]) to 27,700 cases (95% UI 22,400-32,400 [high SSB consumption estimate]), i.e., 1.7% and 3.6% fewer cases, respectively, compared to a scenario of no change in SSB consumption. It would also reduce myocardial infarctions by 2,500 (95% UI 2,200-2,800) to 5,100 (95% UI 4,500-5,700) events and all-cause deaths by 2,700 (95% UI 2,200-3,200) to 5,600 (95% UI 4,600-6,600) for "low" and "high" estimates of SSB intake, respectively. A 20% reduction in SSB consumption with 39% caloric compensation is projected to result in 26,200 (95% UI 21,200-30,600) to 53,800 (95% UI 43,900-62,700) fewer cases of diabetes, 4,800 (95% UI 4,200-5,300) to 10,000 (95% UI 8,800-11,200) fewer myocardial infarctions, and 5,200 (95% UI 4,300-6,200) to 11,000 (95% UI 9,100-13,100) fewer deaths. The largest reductions in diabetes and cardiovascular events were observed in the youngest age group modeled (35-44 years) for both men and women; additionally, more events could be avoided in men compared to women in all age groups. The main limitations of our study are the limited availability of SSB consumption data in Argentina and the fact that we were only able to model the possible benefits of the interventions for the population older than 34 years. CONCLUSIONS: Our study finds that, even under conservative assumptions, a relatively small reduction in SSB consumption could lead to a substantial decrease in diabetes incidence, cardiovascular events, and mortality in Argentina.

Cardiovascular and diabetes burden attributable to physical inactivity in Mexico.

BACKGROUND: Physical inactivity (PI) is associated with the development of non-communicable chronic diseases. The purposes of this study were to estimate the extent to which the 31% relative increase in PI among 35-64 years old Mexicans between 2006 and 2012 influenced diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and mortality, and to estimate the impact of the World Health Organization recommended 10% and 15% relative decrease in PI on CVD and T2D incidence and mortality by 2025 and 2030, respectively. METHODS: Estimates were derived using the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-Mexico, a computer simulation, Markov model. Model inputs included cross-national data on PI levels from 2006 and 2012 measured using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire and the published literature review on the independent relationship between PI and cardiometabolic risk. RESULTS: The models estimated that the 31% increase in PI resulted in an increase in the number of cases of T2D (27,100), coronary heart disease (10,300), stroke (2200), myocardial infarction (1500), stroke deaths (400) and coronary heart disease deaths (350). A hypothetical 10% lowering of PI by 2025 compared to status quo is projected to prevent 8400 cases of T2D, 4200 cases of CHD, 1000 cases of stroke, 700 cases of MI, and 200 deaths of CHD and stroke, respectively. A 15% reduction resulted in larger decreases. CONCLUSIONS: While the burden of T2D and CVD raised from 2006 to 2012 in association with increased PI, achieving the WHO targets by 2030 could help reverse these trends.

Cost-effectiveness of a fixed-dose combination pill for secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease in China, India, Mexico, Nigeria, and South Africa: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Fewer than 25% of patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in countries of low and middle income (LMICs) use guideline-directed drugs for secondary prevention. A fixed-dose combination polypill might improve cardiovascular outcomes by increasing prescription rates and adherence, but the cost-effectiveness of this approach is uncertain. METHODS: We developed microsimulation models to assess the cost-effectiveness of a polypill containing aspirin, lisinopril, atenolol, and simvastatin for secondary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease compared with current care in China, India, Mexico, Nigeria, and South Africa. We modelled baseline use of secondary prevention drugs on the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiological study. In the intervention arm, we assumed that patients currently prescribed any prevention drug for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease would receive the polypill instead, which would improve adherence by 32% (from a meta-analysis of two randomised trials in LMICs). We assessed the cost-effectiveness of the polypill at prices in the public sector and on the retail market. Key outcomes were major adverse cardiovascular events (cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, or non-fatal stroke) over a 5-year period and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) from the perspective of the health-care sector and a lifetime analytical horizon. We assumed a cost-effectiveness threshold equal to each country's per capita gross domestic product (GDP) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted. In sensitivity analyses, we examined the population health effect achievable by increasing the uptake of the polypill in the eligible population. FINDINGS: Among adults aged 30-84 years with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, adoption of the polypill for secondary prevention compared with current care was projected to avert 40-54 major adverse cardiovascular events for every 1000 patients treated for 5 years and produce between three and ten additional serious adverse events. Assuming public-sector pharmaceutical prices, the ICER of the polypill compared with current care over a lifetime analytical horizon was Int$168 (95% UI 55 to 337) per DALY averted in China, $154 (57 to 289) in India, $88 (15 to 193) in Mexico, $364 (147 to 692) in Nigeria, and $64 (cost-saving to 203) in South Africa, amounting to 0·4-6·2% of the per capita GDP in these countries. The ICER of the polypill compared with current care increased to 3·3-14·6% of the per capita GDP at retail market pharmaceutical prices. Use of the polypill at current rates of prescription of secondary prevention drugs would produce modest health benefits, reducing DALYs from atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease among patients with established disease by 3·1-10·1% over 10 years. Increasing use to 50% or 75% of the eligible population would produce substantially larger health gains (up to 24·3% atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease DALYs averted). INTERPRETATION: The polypill is projected to be cost-effective compared with current care for secondary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in China, India, Mexico, Nigeria, and South Africa, particularly if it is made available at public-sector pricing. However, achieving meaningful improvements in cardiovascular health will require simultaneous investments in health infrastructure to increase the uptake of the polypill among patients with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. FUNDING: Richard A and Susan F Smith Center for Outcomes Research in Cardiology, Hellman Family Foundation, Department of Veterans Affairs, and University of California at San Francisco.

Racial/Ethnic-Specific Differences in the Effects of Inhaled Corticosteroid Use on Bronchodilator Response in Patients With Asthma.

American Thoracic Society guidelines recommend inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) therapy, plus a short-acting bronchodilator, in patients with persistent asthma. However, few prior studies have examined the efficacy of this combination in children of all racial/ethnic groups. We evaluated the association between ICS use and bronchodilator response (BDR) in three pediatric populations with persistent asthma (656 African American, 916 Puerto Rican, and 398 Mexican American children). The association was assessed using multivariable quantile regression. After adjusting for baseline forced expiratory volume in one second and use of controller medications, ICS use was significantly associated with increased BDR only among Mexican Americans (1.56%, P = 0.028) but not African Americans (0.49%, P = 0.426) or Puerto Ricans (0.16%, P = 0.813). Our results demonstrate that ICS augmentation is disproportionate across racial/ethnic groups, where improved BDR is observed in Mexican Americans only. This study highlights the complexities of treating asthma in children, and reinforces the importance of investigating the influence of race/ethnicity on pharmacological response.

Comparing Strategies for Lipid Lowering in Argentina: An Analysis from the CVD Policy Model-Argentina.

INTRODUCTION: In Argentina, the national guidelines for lipid control emphasize the use of relatively inexpensive low- or moderate-potency statins by patients at high risk (>20 %) of a cardiovascular event. The objective of this study was to compare the impact and costs of the current national CVD prevention guidelines with regard to morbidity and mortality in Argentina with the impact and costs of three strategies that incorporate high-potency statins. METHODS: We used the CVD Policy Model-Argentina to model the proposed interventions. This model is a national-scale, state-transition (Markov) computer simulation model of the CVD incidence, prevalence, mortality, and costs in adults 35-84 years of age. We modeled three scenarios: scenario 1 lowers the risk threshold for treatment to >10 % according the Framingham Risk Score (FRS); scenario 2 intensifies statin potency under current treatment thresholds; and scenario 3 combines both scenarios by lowering the treatment threshold to ≥10 % FRS and intensifying statin potency. RESULTS: Scenario 1 would translate into 1400 fewer MIs and 500 fewer CHD deaths every year, a 3 % and 2 % reduction, respectively. Scenario 2 would lead to 2000 fewer MIs and 1000 fewer CHD deaths every year. Scenario 3 would result in the greatest reduction in MIs and CHD deaths, with 3400 fewer MIs and 1400 fewer CHD deaths every year, which translates to a 7 % and 6 % reduction, respectively. All scenarios were cost-effective if the cost of a high-potency statin pill was under US$0.25. CONCLUSION: Incorporating those individuals with greater than 10 % cardiovascular risk and the use of high-potency statins into Argentina's national lipid guidelines could result in fewer CHD deaths and events at a reasonable cost.

Projected Impact of Mexico's Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax Policy on Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease: A Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: Rates of diabetes in Mexico are among the highest worldwide. In 2014, Mexico instituted a nationwide tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) in order to reduce the high level of SSB consumption, a preventable cause of diabetes and cardiovascular disease (CVD). We used an established computer simulation model of CVD and country-specific data on demographics, epidemiology, SSB consumption, and short-term changes in consumption following the SSB tax in order to project potential long-range health and economic impacts of SSB taxation in Mexico. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-Mexico, a state transition model of Mexican adults aged 35-94 y, to project the potential future effects of reduced SSB intake on diabetes incidence, CVD events, direct diabetes healthcare costs, and mortality over 10 y. Model inputs included short-term changes in SSB consumption in response to taxation (price elasticity) and data from government and market research surveys and public healthcare institutions. Two main scenarios were modeled: a 10% reduction in SSB consumption (corresponding to the reduction observed after tax implementation) and a 20% reduction in SSB consumption (possible with increases in taxation levels and/or additional measures to curb consumption). Given uncertainty about the degree to which Mexicans will replace calories from SSBs with calories from other sources, we evaluated a range of values for calorie compensation. We projected that a 10% reduction in SSB consumption with 39% calorie compensation among Mexican adults would result in about 189,300 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 155,400-218,100) fewer incident type 2 diabetes cases, 20,400 fewer incident strokes and myocardial infarctions, and 18,900 fewer deaths occurring from 2013 to 2022. This scenario predicts that the SSB tax could save Mexico 983 million international dollars (95% UI $769 million-$1,173 million). The largest relative and absolute reductions in diabetes and CVD events occurred in the youngest age group modeled (35-44 y). This study's strengths include the use of an established mathematical model of CVD and use of contemporary Mexican vital statistics, data from health surveys, healthcare costs, and SSB price elasticity estimates as well as probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses to account for uncertainty. The limitations of the study include reliance on US-based studies for certain inputs where Mexico-specific data were lacking (specifically the associations between risk factors and CVD outcomes [from the Framingham Heart Study] and SSB calorie compensation assumptions), limited data on healthcare costs other than those related to diabetes, and lack of information on long-term SSB price elasticity that is specific to geographic and economic subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Mexico's high diabetes prevalence represents a public health crisis. While the long-term impact of Mexico's SSB tax is not yet known, these projections, based on observed consumption reductions, suggest that Mexico's SSB tax may substantially decrease morbidity and mortality from diabetes and CVD while reducing healthcare costs.

Air Pollution and Lung Function in Minority Youth with Asthma in the GALA II (Genes-Environments and Admixture in Latino Americans) and SAGE II (Study of African Americans, Asthma, Genes, and Environments) Studies.

RATIONALE: Adverse effects of exposures to ambient air pollution on lung function are well documented, but evidence in racial/ethnic minority children is lacking. OBJECTIVES: To assess the relationship between air pollution and lung function in minority children with asthma and possible modification by global genetic ancestry. METHODS: The study population consisted of 1,449 Latino and 519 African American children with asthma from five different geographical regions in the mainland United States and Puerto Rico. We examined five pollutants (particulate matter ≤10 µm and ≤2.5 µm in diameter, ozone, nitrogen dioxide, and sulfur dioxide), derived from participant residential history and ambient air monitoring data, and assessed over several time windows. We fit generalized additive models for associations between pollutant exposures and lung function parameters and tested for interaction terms between exposures and genetic ancestry. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: A 5 µg/m(3) increase in average lifetime particulate matter less than or equal to 2.5 µm in diameter exposure was associated with a 7.7% decrease in FEV1 (95% confidence interval = -11.8 to -3.5%) in the overall study population. Global genetic ancestry did not appear to significantly modify these associations, but percent African ancestry was a significant predictor of lung function. CONCLUSIONS: Early-life particulate exposures were associated with reduced lung function in Latino and African American children with asthma. This is the first study to report an association between exposure to particulates and reduced lung function in minority children in which racial/ethnic status was measured by ancestry-informative markers.

Framingham score and LV mass predict events in young adults: CARDIA study.

BACKGROUND: Framingham risk score (FRS) underestimates risk in young adults. Left ventricular mass (LVM) relates to cardiovascular disease (CVD), with unclear value in youth. In a young biracial cohort, we investigate how FRS predicts CVD over 20 years and the incremental value of LVM. We also explore the predictive ability of different cut-points for hypertrophy. METHODS: We assessed FRS and echocardiography-derived LVM (indexed by body surface area or height2.7) from 3980 African-American and white Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) participants (1990-1991); and followed over 20 years for a combined endpoint: cardiovascular death; nonfatal myocardial infarction, heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, and peripheral artery disease. We assessed the predictive ability of FRS for CVD and also calibration, discrimination, and net reclassification improvement for adding LVM to FRS. RESULTS: Mean age was 30±4 years, 46% males, and 52% white. Event incidence (n=118) across FRS groups was, respectively, 1.3%, 5.4%, and 23.1% (p<0.001); and was 1.4%, 1.3%, 3.7%, and 5.4% (p<0.001) across quartiles of LVM (cut-points 117 g, 144 g, and 176 g). LVM predicted CVD independently of FRS, with the best performance in normal weight participants. Adding LVM to FRS modestly increased discrimination and had a statistically significant reclassification. The 85th percentile (≥116 g/m2 for men; ≥96 g/m2 for women) showed event prediction more robust than currently recommended cut-points for hypertrophy. CONCLUSION: In a biracial cohort of young adults, FRS and LVM are helpful independent predictors of CVD. LVM can modestly improve discrimination and reclassify participants beyond FRS. Currently recommended cut-points for hypertrophy may be too high for young adults.

Projected impact of a sodium consumption reduction initiative in Argentina: an analysis from the CVD policy model--Argentina.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in adults in Argentina. Sodium reduction policies targeting processed foods were implemented in 2011 in Argentina, but the impact has not been evaluated. The aims of this study are to use Argentina-specific data on sodium excretion and project the impact of Argentina's sodium reduction policies under two scenarios - the 2-year intervention currently being undertaken or a more persistent 10 year sodium reduction strategy. METHODS: We used Argentina-specific data on sodium excretion by sex and projected the impact of the current strategy on sodium consumption and blood pressure decrease. We assessed the projected impact of sodium reduction policies on CVD using the Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) Policy Model, adapted to Argentina, modeling two alternative policy scenarios over the next decade. RESULTS: Our study finds that the initiative to reduce sodium consumption currently in place in Argentina will have substantial impact on CVD over the next 10 years. Under the current proposed policy of 2-year sodium reduction, the mean sodium consumption is projected to decrease by 319-387 mg/day. This decrease is expected to translate into an absolute reduction of systolic blood pressure from 0.93 mmHg to 1.81 mmHg. This would avert about 19,000 all-cause mortality, 13,000 total myocardial infarctions, and 10,000 total strokes over the next decade. A more persistent sodium reduction strategy would yield even greater CVD benefits. CONCLUSION: The impact of the Argentinean initiative would be effective in substantially reducing mortality and morbidity from CVD. This paper provides evidence-based support to continue implementing strategies to reduce sodium consumption at a population level.

Early-life air pollution and asthma risk in minority children. The GALA II and SAGE II studies.

RATIONALE: Air pollution is a known asthma trigger and has been associated with short-term asthma symptoms, airway inflammation, decreased lung function, and reduced response to asthma rescue medications. OBJECTIVES: To assess a causal relationship between air pollution and childhood asthma using data that address temporality by estimating air pollution exposures before the development of asthma and to establish the generalizability of the association by studying diverse racial/ethnic populations in different geographic regions. METHODS: This study included Latino (n = 3,343) and African American (n = 977) participants with and without asthma from five urban regions in the mainland United States and Puerto Rico. Residential history and data from local ambient air monitoring stations were used to estimate average annual exposure to five air pollutants: ozone, nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide, particulate matter not greater than 10 µm in diameter, and particulate matter not greater than 2.5 µm in diameter. Within each region, we performed logistic regression to determine the relationship between early-life exposure to air pollutants and subsequent asthma diagnosis. A random-effects model was used to combine the region-specific effects and generate summary odds ratios for each pollutant. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: After adjustment for confounders, a 5-ppb increase in average NO2 during the first year of life was associated with an odds ratio of 1.17 for physician-diagnosed asthma (95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.31). CONCLUSIONS: Early-life NO2 exposure is associated with childhood asthma in Latinos and African Americans. These results add to a growing body of evidence that traffic-related pollutants may be causally related to childhood asthma.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of blood pressure screening in adolescents in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the long-term effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of 3 approaches to managing elevated blood pressure (BP) in adolescents in the United States: no intervention, "screen-and-treat," and population-wide strategies to lower the entire BP distribution. STUDY DESIGN: We used a simulation model to combine several data sources to project the lifetime costs and cardiovascular outcomes for a cohort of 15-year-old U.S. adolescents under different BP approaches and conducted cost-effectiveness analysis. We obtained BP distributions from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2004 and used childhood-to-adult longitudinal correlation analyses to simulate the tracking of BP. We then used the coronary heart disease policy model to estimate lifetime coronary heart disease events, costs, and quality-adjusted life years (QALY). RESULTS: Among screen-and-treat strategies, finding and treating the adolescents at highest risk (eg, left ventricular hypertrophy) was most cost-effective ($18000/QALY [boys] and $47000/QALY [girls]). However, all screen-and-treat strategies were dominated by population-wide strategies such as salt reduction (cost-saving [boys] and $650/QALY [girls]) and increasing physical education ($11000/QALY [boys] and $35000/QALY [girls]). CONCLUSIONS: Routine adolescents BP screening is moderately effective, but population-based BP interventions with broader reach could potentially be less costly and more effective for early cardiovascular disease prevention and should be implemented in parallel.