Process-Informed Subsampling Improves Subseasonal Rainfall Forecasts in Central America.

Subseasonal rainfall forecast skill is critical to support preparedness for hydrometeorological extremes. We assess how a process-informed evaluation, which subsamples forecasting model members based on their ability to represent potential predictors of rainfall, can improve monthly rainfall forecasts within Central America in the following month, using Costa Rica and Guatemala as test cases. We generate a constrained ensemble mean by subsampling 130 members from five dynamic forecasting models in the C3S multimodel ensemble based on their representation of both (a) zonal wind direction and (b) Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), at the time of initialization. Our results show in multiple months and locations increased mean squared error skill by 0.4 and improved detection rates of rainfall extremes. This method is transferrable to other regions driven by slowly-changing processes. Process-informed subsampling is successful because it identifies members that fail to represent the entire rainfall distribution when wind/SST error increases.

Global rainfall erosivity database (GloREDa) and monthly R-factor data at 1 km spatial resolution.

Here, we present and release the Global Rainfall Erosivity Database (GloREDa), a multi-source platform containing rainfall erosivity values for almost 4000 stations globally. The database was compiled through a global collaboration between a network of researchers, meteorological services and environmental organisations from 65 countries. GloREDa is the first open access database of rainfall erosivity (R-factor) based on hourly and sub-hourly rainfall records at a global scale. This database is now stored and accessible for download in the long-term European Soil Data Centre (ESDAC) repository of the European Commission's Joint Research Centre. This will ensure the further development of the database with insertions of new records, maintenance of the data and provision of a helpdesk. In addition to the annual erosivity data, this release also includes the mean monthly erosivity data for 94% of the GloREDa stations. Based on these mean monthly R-factor values, we predict the global monthly erosivity datasets at 1 km resolution using the ensemble machine learning approach (ML) as implemented in the mlr package for R. The produced monthly raster data (GeoTIFF format) may be useful for soil erosion prediction modelling, sediment distribution analysis, climate change predictions, flood, and natural disaster assessments and can be valuable inputs for Land and Earth Systems modelling.

Quantifying heterogeneity in ecohydrological partitioning in urban green spaces through the integration of empirical and modelling approaches.

Urban green spaces (UGS) can help mitigate hydrological impacts of urbanisation and climate change through precipitation infiltration, evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge. However, there is a need to understand how precipitation is partitioned by contrasting vegetation types in order to target UGS management for specific ecosystem services. We monitored, over one growing season, hydrometeorology, soil moisture, sapflux and isotopic variability of soil water under contrasting vegetation (evergreen shrub, evergreen conifer, grassland, larger and smaller deciduous trees), focussed around a 150-m transect of UGS in northern Scotland. We further used the data to develop a one-dimensional model, calibrated to soil moisture observations (KGE's generally > 0.65), to estimate evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge. Our results evidenced clear inter-site differences, with grassland soils experiencing rapid drying at the start of summer, resulting in more fractionated soil water isotopes. Contrastingly, the larger deciduous site saw gradual drying, whilst deeper sandy upslope soils beneath the evergreen shrub drained rapidly. Soils beneath the denser canopied evergreen conifer were overall least responsive to precipitation. Modelled ecohydrological fluxes showed similar diversity, with median evapotranspiration estimates increasing in the order grassland (193 mm) < evergreen shrub (214 mm) < larger deciduous tree (224 mm) < evergreen conifer tree (265 mm). The evergreen shrub had similar estimated median transpiration totals as the larger deciduous tree (155 mm and 128 mm, respectively), though timing of water uptake was different. Median groundwater recharge was greatest beneath grassland (232 mm) and lowest beneath the evergreen conifer (128 mm). The study showed how integrating observational data and simple modelling can quantify heterogeneities in ecohydrological partitioning and help guide UGS management.

Assessing land use influences on isotopic variability and stream water ages in urbanising rural catchments.

Stable water isotopes are invaluable in helping understand catchment functioning and are widely used in experimental catchments, with higher frequency data becoming increasingly common. Such datasets incur substantial logistical costs, reducing their feasibility for use by decision makers needing to understand multi-catchment, landscape-scale functioning over a relatively short period to assess the impact of proposed land use change. Instead, reconnaissance style surveys (high spatial resolution across the landscape at a lower temporal frequency, over a relatively short period) offer an alternative, complementary approach. To test if such sampling could identify heterogeneities in hydrological functioning, and associated landscape controls, we sampled 27 stream sites fortnightly for one year within a peri-urban landscape undergoing land use change. Visual examination of raw data and application of mean transit time and young water fraction models indicated urbanisation, agriculture and responsive soils caused more rapid cycling of precipitation to stream water, whereas mature forestry provided attenuation. We were also able to identify contiguous catchments which functioned fundamentally differently, meaning their response to land use alteration would also be different. This study demonstrated how stable water isotopes can be a valuable, low-cost addition to tools available for environmental decision makers by providing local, process-based information.

Characterizing solute budgets of a tropical Andean páramo ecosystem.

Monitoring solute fluxes in water quality studies is essential to reveal potential ecosystem disturbances, and is particularly important in Andean headwater catchments as they are the main sources of water for downstream populations. However, such studies have mainly focused on organic matter and nutrients, disregarding other solutes that can threaten water quality (e.g. arsenic, lead, calcium or magnesium). Additionally, routine low-resolution (weekly or monthly) sampling schemes may overlook important solute dynamics. Therefore, we collected water samples every four hours for the analysis of twenty-four solutes in a pristine tropical Andean páramo catchment. Solute fluxes were calculated using five different methods. The 4-hourly data set was filtered to test for an optimum sampling frequency without compromising export rates. Based on the available 4-hourly data, the results showed that the interpolation export method was best suited, due to a weak correlation with discharges. Of the twenty-four solutes analyzed, Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC), Total Nitrogen bound (TNb), Si, Ca, Mg, K, and Na presented the highest input rates (with DOC = 4.167E+08 mEq km-2 yr-1 and Si = 1.729E+07 mEq km-2 yr-1) and export rates (with DOC = 2.686E+08 mEq km-2 yr-1 and Si = 2.953E+08 mEq km-2 yr-1). Moreover, DOC, TNb, NH4-N, NO2-N, NO3-N, PO4, Al, B, Cu, Fe, Zn, As, Cd, Cr, Pb, and V presented more input than export, while Ca, K, Mg, Na, Rb, Si, Sr, and Ba presented more export than input (geogenic sources). Filtered sampling frequencies demonstrated that a minimum of daily grab samples would be required to obtain reliable export rates with differences consistently below 10%, when compared to the 4-hourly solute export. These findings can be particularly useful for the implementation of long-term monitoring programs at low cost, and they provide high-quality information, for the first time, on biogeochemical budgets in a pristine páramo catchment.

Evaluating tropical drought risk by combining open access gridded vulnerability and hazard data products.

Droughts are causing severe damages to tropical countries worldwide. Although water abundant, their resilience to water shortages during dry periods is often low. As there is little knowledge about tropical drought characteristics, reliable methodologies to evaluate drought risk in data scarce tropical regions are needed. We combined drought hazard and vulnerability related data to assess drought risk in four rural tropical study regions, the Muriaé basin, Southeast Brazil, the Tempisque-Bebedero basin in Costa Rica, the upper part of the Magdalena basin, Colombia and the Srepok, shared by Cambodia and Vietnam. Drought hazard was analyzed using the variables daily river discharge, precipitation and vegetation condition. Drought vulnerability was assessed based on regionally available socioeconomic data. Besides illustrating the relative severity of each indicator value, we developed drought risk maps combining hazard and vulnerability for each grid-cell. While for the Muriaé, our results identified the downstream area as being exposed to severe drought risk, the Tempisque showed highest risk along the major streams and related irrigation systems. Risk hotspots in the Upper Magdalena were found in the central valley and the dryer Southeast and in the Srepok in the agricultural areas of Vietnam and downstream Cambodia. Local scientists and stakeholders have validated our results and we believe that our drought risk assessment methodology for data scarce and rural tropical regions offers a holistic, science based and innovative framework to generate relevant drought related information. Being applied to other tropical catchments, the approaches described in this article will enable the selection of data sets, indices and their classification - depending on basin size, spatial resolution and seasonality. At its current stage, the outcomes of this study provide relevant information for regional planners and water managers dealing with the control of future drought disasters in tropical regions.

Continuous in situ measurements of water stable isotopes in soils, tree trunk and root xylem: Field approval.

RATIONALE: New methods to measure stable isotopes of soil and tree water directly in the field enable us to increase the temporal resolution of obtained data and advance our knowledge on the dynamics of soil and plant water fluxes. Only few field applications exist. However, these are needed to further improve novel methods and hence exploit their full potential. METHODS: We tested the borehole equilibration method in the field and collected in situ and destructive samples of stable isotopes of soil, trunk and root xylem water over a 2.5-month experiment in a tropical dry forest under natural abundance conditions and following labelled irrigation. Water from destructive samples was extracted using cryogenic vacuum extraction. Isotope ratios were determined with IRIS instruments using cavity ring-down spectroscopy both in the field and in the laboratory. RESULTS: In general, timelines of both methods agreed well for both soil and xylem samples. Irrigation labelled with heavy hydrogen isotopes clearly impacted the isotope composition of soil water and one of the two studied tree species. Inter-method deviations increased in consequence of labelling, which revealed their different capabilities to cover spatial and temporal heterogeneities. CONCLUSIONS: We applied the novel borehole equilibration method in a remote field location. Our experiment reinforced the potential of this in situ method for measuring xylem water isotopes in both tree trunks and roots and confirmed the reliability of gas permeable soil probes. However, in situ xylem measurements should be further developed to reduce the uncertainty within the range of natural abundance and hence enable their full potential.

Isotopic composition and major ion concentrations of national and international bottled waters in Costa Rica.

Global bottled water consumption has largely increased (14.35 billion gallons in 2020) [1], [2], [3], [4], [5] during the last decade since consumers are demanding healthier and safer forms of rehydration. Bottled water sources are normally labeled as mountainous and pristine mineral springs (fed by rainfall and snow/glacier melting processes), deep groundwater wells or industrial purified water. The advent of numerous international and national-based bottled water brands has simultaneously raised a worldwide awareness related to the water source and chemical content traceability [6]. Here, we present the first database of stable isotope compositions and reported chemical concentrations from imported and national-based bottled waters in Costa Rica. In total, 45 bottled waters produced in Costa Rica and 31 imported from USA, Europe, Oceania, and other countries of Central America were analyzed for δ18O, δ2H, and d-excess. Chemical compositions were obtained from available bottle labels. National-based bottle waters ranged from -2.47‰ to -10.65‰ in δ18O and from -10.4‰ to -78.0‰ in δ2H, while d-excess varied from +4.2‰ up to +17.0‰. International bottle waters ranged between -2.21‰ and -11.03‰ in δ18O and from -11.3‰ up to -76.0‰ in δ2H, while d-excess varied from +5.0‰ up to +19.1‰. In Costa Rica, only 19% of the brands reported chemical parameters such as Na+, K+, Ca+2, Mg+2, F-, Cl-, NO3 -, SO4 -2, CO3 -2, SiO2, dry residue, and pH; whereas 27% of the international products reported similar parameters. The absence of specific geographic coordinates or water source origin limited a spatial analysis to validate bottled water isotope compositions versus available isoscapes in Costa Rica [7]. This database highlights the potential and relevance of the use of water stable isotope compositions to improve the traceability of bottled water sources and the urgent need of more robust legislation in order to provide detailed information (i.e., water source, chemical composition, purification processes) to the final consumers.

From mountains to cities: a novel isotope hydrological assessment of a tropical water distribution system.

Water use by anthropogenic activities in the face of climate change invokes a better understanding of headwater sources and lowland urban water allocations. Here, we constrained a Bayesian mixing model with stable isotope data (2018-2019) in rainfall (N = 704), spring water (N = 96), and surface water (N = 94) with seasonal isotope sampling (wet and dry seasons) of an urban aqueduct (N = 215) in the Central Valley of Costa Rica. Low δ 18O rainfall compositions corresponded to the western boundary of the study area, whereas high values were reported to the northeastern limit, reflecting the influence of moisture transport from the Caribbean domain coupled with strong orographic effects over the Pacific slope. The latter is well-depicted in the relative rainfall contributions (west versus east) in two headwater systems: (a) spring (68.7 ± 3.4 %, west domain) and (b) stream (55.8 ± 3.9 %, east domain). The aqueduct exhibited a spatial predominance of spring water and surface water during a normal wet season (78.7 %), whereas deep groundwater and spring water were fundamental sources for the aqueduct in the dry season (69.4 %). Our tracer-based methodology can help improve aqueduct management practices in changing climate, including optimal water allocation and reduced evaporative losses in the dry season.

Net landscape carbon balance of a tropical savanna: Relative importance of fire and aquatic export in offsetting terrestrial production.

The magnitude of the terrestrial carbon (C) sink may be overestimated globally due to the difficulty of accounting for all C losses across heterogeneous landscapes. More complete assessments of net landscape C balances (NLCB) are needed that integrate both emissions by fire and transfer to aquatic systems, two key loss pathways of terrestrial C. These pathways can be particularly significant in the wet-dry tropics, where fire plays a fundamental part in ecosystems and where intense rainfall and seasonal flooding can result in considerable aquatic C export (ΣFaq ). Here, we determined the NLCB of a lowland catchment (~140 km2 ) in tropical Australia over 2 years by evaluating net terrestrial productivity (NEP), fire-related C emissions and ΣFaq (comprising both downstream transport and gaseous evasion) for the two main landscape components, that is, savanna woodland and seasonal wetlands. We found that the catchment was a large C sink (NLCB 334 Mg C km-2  year-1 ), and that savanna and wetland areas contributed 84% and 16% to this sink, respectively. Annually, fire emissions (-56 Mg C km-2  year-1 ) and ΣFaq (-28 Mg C km-2  year-1 ) reduced NEP by 13% and 7%, respectively. Savanna burning shifted the catchment to a net C source for several months during the dry season, while ΣFaq significantly offset NEP during the wet season, with a disproportionate contribution by single major monsoonal events-up to 39% of annual ΣFaq was exported in one event. We hypothesize that wetter and hotter conditions in the wet-dry tropics in the future will increase ΣFaq and fire emissions, potentially further reducing the current C sink in the region. More long-term studies are needed to upscale this first NLCB estimate to less productive, yet hydrologically dynamic regions of the wet-dry tropics where our result indicating a significant C sink may not hold.

Deciphering key processes controlling rainfall isotopic variability during extreme tropical cyclones.

The Mesoamerican and Caribbean (MAC) region is characterized by tropical cyclones (TCs), strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation events, and climate variability that bring unique hazards to socio-ecological systems. Here we report the first characterization of the isotopic evolution of a TC (Hurricane Otto, 2016) in the MAC region. We use long-term daily rainfall isotopes from Costa Rica and event-based sampling of Hurricanes Irma and Maria (2017), to underpin the dynamical drivers of TC isotope ratios. During Hurricane Otto, rainfall exhibited a large isotopic range, comparable to the annual isotopic cycle. As Hurricane Otto organized into a Category 3, rapid isotopic depletion coupled with a decrease in d-excess indicates efficient isotopic fractionation within ~200 km SW of the warm core. Our results shed light on key processes governing rainfall isotope ratios in the MAC region during continental and maritime TC tracks, with applications to the interpretation of paleo-hydroclimate across the tropics.

Spatially distributed hydro-chemical data with temporally high-resolution is needed to adequately assess the hydrological functioning of headwater catchments.

We demonstrated the great value of spatially distributed and temporally high-resolution hydro-chemical data to enhance knowledge about the intra-catchment variability of flow processes and the runoff composition of individual storms in a tropical alpine (Páramo) ecosystem. In this study, water sources (rainfall, spring water, and water from soil layers of Histosols and Andosols) and nested streams were sampled bi-weekly (2013-2014), including three storm high-resolution events (5-240 min). Water samples were analyzed for 14 tracers including electrical conductivity (EC) and rare earth trace elements and used as input to perform End-Member Mixing Analysis (EMMA). End-members identified for the outlet could explain the hydrological behavior of four out of the five tributaries, indicating similar hydro-geochemical processes and geomorphic features within the catchments. The runoff source contributions of the individual sub-catchments varied among (e.g. Andosols ~40% in tributaries and ~25% at the outlet) and within storm events (e.g. Histosols 15% higher in small peak discharge event), indicating a time-variable composition of streamflows. The latter was also reflected by the interaction of different sources and the chronology of flow paths in EMMA-space, evidencing a faster connectivity with hillslopes in the upper sub-catchments compared to the lower sub-catchments. We found counter-clockwise hysteresis patterns of storms in the lower catchments and clockwise hysteresis loops in the upper catchments. The latter bi-directionality can be related to lower slopes, wider riparian areas and the higher proportion of Histosols in the lower catchments compared to the upper sites.

Global rainfall erosivity assessment based on high-temporal resolution rainfall records.

The exposure of the Earth's surface to the energetic input of rainfall is one of the key factors controlling water erosion. While water erosion is identified as the most serious cause of soil degradation globally, global patterns of rainfall erosivity remain poorly quantified and estimates have large uncertainties. This hampers the implementation of effective soil degradation mitigation and restoration strategies. Quantifying rainfall erosivity is challenging as it requires high temporal resolution(<30 min) and high fidelity rainfall recordings. We present the results of an extensive global data collection effort whereby we estimated rainfall erosivity for 3,625 stations covering 63 countries. This first ever Global Rainfall Erosivity Database was used to develop a global erosivity map at 30 arc-seconds(~1 km) based on a Gaussian Process Regression(GPR). Globally, the mean rainfall erosivity was estimated to be 2,190 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1, with the highest values in South America and the Caribbean countries, Central east Africa and South east Asia. The lowest values are mainly found in Canada, the Russian Federation, Northern Europe, Northern Africa and the Middle East. The tropical climate zone has the highest mean rainfall erosivity followed by the temperate whereas the lowest mean was estimated in the cold climate zone.

Continuous Dissolved Oxygen Measurements and Modelling Metabolism in Peatland Streams.

Stream water dissolved oxygen was monitored in a 3.2km2 moorland headwater catchment in the Scottish Highlands. The stream consists of three 1st order headwaters and a 2nd order main stem. The stream network is fringed by peat soils with no riparian trees, though dwarf shrubs provide shading in the lower catchment. Dissolved oxygen (DO) is regulated by the balance between atmospheric re-aeration and the metabolic processes of photosynthesis and respiration. DO was continuously measured for >1 year and the data used to calibrate a mass balance model, to estimate primary production, respiration and re-aeration for a 1st order site and in the 2nd order main stem. Results showed that the stream was always heterotrophic at both sites. Sites were most heterotrophic in the summer reflecting higher levels of stream metabolism. The 1st order stream appeared more heterotrophic which was consistent with the evident greater biomass of macrophytes in the 2nd order stream, with resulting higher primary productivity. Comparison between respiration, primary production, re-aeration and potential physical controls revealed only weak relationships. However, the most basic model parameters (e.g. the parameter linking light and photosynthesis) controlling ecosystem processes resulted in significant differences between the sites which seem related to the stream channel geometry.

Water sources and mixing in riparian wetlands revealed by tracers and geospatial analysis.

Mixing of waters within riparian zones has been identified as an important influence on runoff generation and water quality. Improved understanding of the controls on the spatial and temporal variability of water sources and how they mix in riparian zones is therefore of both fundamental and applied interest. In this study, we have combined topographic indices derived from a high-resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with repeated spatially high-resolution synoptic sampling of multiple tracers to investigate such dynamics of source water mixing. We use geostatistics to estimate concentrations of three different tracers (deuterium, alkalinity, and dissolved organic carbon) across an extended riparian zone in a headwater catchment in NE Scotland, to identify spatial and temporal influences on mixing of source waters. The various biogeochemical tracers and stable isotopes helped constrain the sources of runoff and their temporal dynamics. Results show that spatial variability in all three tracers was evident in all sampling campaigns, but more pronounced in warmer dryer periods. The extent of mixing areas within the riparian area reflected strong hydroclimatic controls and showed large degrees of expansion and contraction that was not strongly related to topographic indices. The integrated approach of using multiple tracers, geospatial statistics, and topographic analysis allowed us to classify three main riparian source areas and mixing zones. This study underlines the importance of the riparian zones for mixing soil water and groundwater and introduces a novel approach how this mixing can be quantified and the effect on the downstream chemistry be assessed.