Proposing the solar-wind energy flux hypothesis as a driver of inter-annual variation in tropical tree reproductive effort.

PREMISE: The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects tropical environmental conditions, potentially altering ecosystem function as El Niño events interact with longer-term climate change. Anomalously warm equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures affect rainfall and temperature throughout the tropics and coincide with altered leaf flush phenology and increased fruit production in wet tropical forests; however, the understanding of mechanisms underlying this pattern is limited. There is evidence that increases in tropical tree reproduction anticipate El Niño onset, motivating the continued search for a global driver of tropical angiosperm reproduction. We present the solar-wind energy flux hypothesis: that physical energy influx to the Earth's upper atmosphere and magnetosphere, generated by a positive anomaly in the solar wind preceding El Niño development, cues tropical trees to increase resource allocation to reproduction. METHODS: We test this hypothesis using 19 years of data from Luquillo, Puerto Rico, correlating them with measures of solar-wind energy. RESULTS: From 1994 to 2013, the solar-wind energy flux into Earth's magnetosphere (Ein ) was more strongly correlated with the number of species fruiting and flowering than the Niño 3.4 climate index, despite Niño 3.4 being previously identified as a driver of interannual increases in reproduction. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in the global magnetosphere and thermosphere conditions from increased solar-wind energy affect global atmospheric pressure and circulation patterns, principally by weakening the Walker circulation. We discuss the idea that these changes cue interannual increases in tropical tree reproduction and act through an unidentified mechanism that anticipates and synchronizes the reproductive output of the tropical trees with El Niño.

Effects of hurricanes and climate oscillations on annual variation in reproduction in wet forest, Puerto Rico.

Interannual changes in global climate and weather disturbances may influence reproduction in tropical forests. Phenomena such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are known to produce interannual variation in reproduction, as do severe storms such as hurricanes. Using stationary trap-based phenology data collected fortnightly from 1993 to 2014 from a hurricane-affected (1989 Hugo, 1998 Georges) subtropical wet forest in northeastern Puerto Rico, we conducted a time series analysis of flowering and seed production. We addressed (1) the degree to which interannual variation in flower and seed production was influenced by global climate drivers and time since hurricane disturbance, and (2) how long-term trends in reproduction varied with plant lifeform. The seasonally de-trended number of species in flower fluctuated over time while the number of species producing seed exhibited a declining trend, one that was particularly evident during the second half of the study period. Lagged El Niño indices and time series hurricane disturbance jointly influenced the trends in numbers of flowering and fruiting species, suggesting complex global influences on tropical forest reproduction with variable periodicities. Lag times affecting flowering tended to be longer than those affecting fruiting. Long-term patterns of reproduction in individual lifeforms paralleled the community-wide patterns, with most groups of lifeform exhibiting a long-term decline in seed but not flower production. Exceptions were found for hemiepiphytes, small trees, and lianas whose seed reproduction increased and then declined over time. There was no long-term increase in flower production as reported in other Neotropical sites.