Development of a prognostic model of COVID-19 severity: a population-based cohort study in Iceland.

BACKGROUND: The severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection varies from asymptomatic state to severe respiratory failure and the clinical course is difficult to predict. The aim of the study was to develop a prognostic model to predict the severity of COVID-19 in unvaccinated adults at the time of diagnosis. METHODS: All SARS-CoV-2-positive adults in Iceland were prospectively enrolled into a telehealth service at diagnosis. A multivariable proportional-odds logistic regression model was derived from information obtained during the enrollment interview of those diagnosed between February 27 and December 31, 2020 who met the inclusion criteria. Outcomes were defined on an ordinal scale: (1) no need for escalation of care during follow-up; (2) need for urgent care visit; (3) hospitalization; and (4) admission to intensive care unit (ICU) or death. Missing data were multiply imputed using chained equations and the model was internally validated using bootstrapping techniques. Decision curve analysis was performed. RESULTS: The prognostic model was derived from 4756 SARS-CoV-2-positive persons. In total, 375 (7.9%) only required urgent care visits, 188 (4.0%) were hospitalized and 50 (1.1%) were either admitted to ICU or died due to complications of COVID-19. The model included age, sex, body mass index (BMI), current smoking, underlying conditions, and symptoms and clinical severity score at enrollment. On internal validation, the optimism-corrected Nagelkerke's R2 was 23.4% (95%CI, 22.7-24.2), the C-statistic was 0.793 (95%CI, 0.789-0.797) and the calibration slope was 0.97 (95%CI, 0.96-0.98). Outcome-specific indices were for urgent care visit or worse (calibration intercept -0.04 [95%CI, -0.06 to -0.02], Emax 0.014 [95%CI, 0.008-0.020]), hospitalization or worse (calibration intercept -0.06 [95%CI, -0.12 to -0.03], Emax 0.018 [95%CI, 0.010-0.027]), and ICU admission or death (calibration intercept -0.10 [95%CI, -0.15 to -0.04] and Emax 0.027 [95%CI, 0.013-0.041]). CONCLUSION: Our prognostic model can accurately predict the later need for urgent outpatient evaluation, hospitalization, and ICU admission and death among unvaccinated SARS-CoV-2-positive adults in the general population at the time of diagnosis, using information obtained by telephone interview.

The Current State of Neurosurgery in Iceland.

BACKGROUND: Although surgical conditions account for 32% of the global burden of diseases, approximately 5 billion people worldwide lack access to timely and affordable, surgical and anesthetic services. Disparities in access to surgical care are most evident in low- and middle-income countries, often resulting from a lack of surgical infrastructure. However, the establishment of surgical infrastructure, particularly for specialty surgical services including neurosurgery, is challenging in countries with small populations, irrespective of income classification, due to the distribution of high costs among a lesser number of individuals. One such nation is Iceland. Despite high-income status, high quality of life, literacy, and educational attainment, the population of Iceland has often lacked access to local neurosurgical care, with the establishment of the domestic neurosurgical system in 1971 and continued externalization of complex neurosurgical procedures to neighboring nations and neurosurgeons. METHODS: A narrative review was conducted. RESULTS: This article provides the first-ever examination of neurosurgery in Iceland. We discussed the history and the social, political, and economical contexts in Iceland. We examined the history of neurosurgery in Iceland, which provided brief biographic sketches of pioneers who have catalyzed the establishment of neurosurgical care and training in Iceland, and characterize the current state of neurosurgery in Iceland. CONCLUSIONS: Recommendations derived from the experiences of Icelandic neurosurgeons may guide the international community in future initiatives.

Rare SLC13A1 variants associate with intervertebral disc disorder highlighting role of sulfate in disc pathology.

Back pain is a common and debilitating disorder with largely unknown underlying biology. Here we report a genome-wide association study of back pain using diagnoses assigned in clinical practice; dorsalgia (119,100 cases, 909,847 controls) and intervertebral disc disorder (IDD) (58,854 cases, 922,958 controls). We identify 41 variants at 33 loci. The most significant association (ORIDD = 0.92, P = 1.6 × 10-39; ORdorsalgia = 0.92, P = 7.2 × 10-15) is with a 3'UTR variant (rs1871452-T) in CHST3, encoding a sulfotransferase enzyme expressed in intervertebral discs. The largest effects on IDD are conferred by rare (MAF = 0.07 - 0.32%) loss-of-function (LoF) variants in SLC13A1, encoding a sodium-sulfate co-transporter (LoF burden OR = 1.44, P = 3.1 × 10-11); variants that also associate with reduced serum sulfate. Genes implicated by this study are involved in cartilage and bone biology, as well as neurological and inflammatory processes.

Outpatient Use of Antimicrobials in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis Before and After Treatment With Tumor Necrosis Factor Inhibitors: A Nationwide Retrospective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of tumor necrosis factor α inhibitor (TNFi) initiation on the use of antimicrobials among biologic-naïve patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). METHODS: Information on all biologic-naïve patients with RA was extracted from ICEBIO, a nationwide registry. Each patient was matched on age, sex, and calendar time to five randomly selected individuals from the general population. All filled antimicrobial and glucocorticoid prescriptions in the 2 years before and after initiation of the first TNFi were extracted from the Prescription Medicines Register. Prescriptions were quantified by using the number of filled prescriptions (NP) and defined daily doses. RESULTS: We extracted information on 359 patients with RA and 1795 comparators. During the 24 months before initiating treatment with TNFi, patients with RA received more prescriptions for antimicrobials than their matched general population comparators (mean ± SD: 2.8 ± 3.4 vs 1.6 ± 2.7; P < 0.001). The 24-month mean NP for patients with RA increased to 3.5 ± 3.9 (P < 0.001) after initiating TNFi: antibiotics, 2.6 ± 3.2 to 3.2 ± 3.5 (P < 0.001); antivirals, 0.06 ± 0.5 to 0.16 ± 0.7 (P = 0.004); and antimycotics, 0.14 ± 0.5 to 0.22 ± 0.9 (P = 0.06). The 12-month mean NP was highest in the second year after TNFi initiation (1.9 ± 2.4). No association was found between NP and glucocorticoids, age, body mass index, or pre-TNFi Disease Activity Score 28-joint count and C-reactive protein. CONCLUSION: Patients with RA on TNFi are more commonly treated for infections in the outpatient settings than previously reported. Patients are prescribed more antimicrobials in the 2 years preceding TNFi initiation than the general population, and this use further increases after initiation of TNFi. In contrast to what is reported for infections requiring hospitalization, outpatient antimicrobial use remained elevated for at least 2 years.

Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance and COVID-19: a population-based cohort study.

Multiple myeloma (MM) patients have increased risk of severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) when infected by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS), the precursor of MM has been associated with immune dysfunction which may lead to severe COVID-19. No systematic data have been published on COVID-19 in individuals with MGUS. We conducted a large population-based cohort study evaluating the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19 among individuals with MGUS. We included 75,422 Icelanders born before 1976, who had been screened for MGUS in the Iceland Screens Treats or Prevents Multiple Myeloma study (iStopMM). Data on SARS-CoV-2 testing and COVID-19 severity were acquired from the Icelandic COVID-19 Study Group. Using a test-negative study design, we included 32,047 iStopMM participants who had been tested for SARS-CoV-2, of whom 1754 had MGUS. Among these participants, 1100 participants, tested positive, 65 of whom had MGUS. Severe COVID-19 developed in 230 participants, including 16 with MGUS. MGUS was not associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection (Odds ratio (OR): 1.05; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.81-1.36; p = 0.72) or severe COVID-19 (OR: 0.99; 95%CI: 0.52-1.91; p = 0.99). These findings indicate that MGUS does not affect the susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 or the severity of COVID-19.

[Critical care management of patients with spontaneous subarachnoid haemorrhage - a review].

Spontaneous subarachnoid haemorrhage is characterized by extravasation of blood into the subarachnoid space without a preceding trauma. The leading cause is a ruptured intracranial aneurysm. Serious neurologic complications can occur, such as rebleeding, cerebral vasospasm and delayed cerebral ischemia. Subarachnoid haemorrhage is a serious condition with a high mortality rate and those who survive often suffer long-term consequences. Prevention of rebleeding by aneurysm repair is essential and guidelines recommend this procedure should be done as soon as possible or within 72 hours. Management requires intensive care with emphasis on accurate blood pressure control, maintaining normal fluid and electrolyte balance and monitoring the level of consciousness. All patients should be treated with the calcium channel blocker nimodipine to reduce the risk of vasospasm and delayed cerebral ischemia which are among the most serious complications of subarachnoid haemorrhage.

[Obesity isn't always obesity: Cushing's disease - case report]. / Offita er ekki alltaf offita: Cushing-sjúkdómur, sjúkratilfelli

Woman in her thirties presented to the emergency room with a two-week history of worsening headache and diplopia. For eight years she had suffered from progressive weight gain, diabetes and hypertension that didn't improve with lifestyle modification. A lumbar puncture demonstrated increased intracranial pressure and MRI a pituitary adenoma. Physical examination was consistent with Cushing's syndrome and endocrine workup confirmed Cushing's disease. Treatment was complex, including unsuccessful pituitary surgery and gamma knife radiosurgery, and eventually bilateral adrenalectomy with subsequent development of Nelsons syndrome. This case illustrates the diagnostic delay that many patients with CD suffer from.

[First case of COVID-19 treated with tocilizumab in Iceland]. / Fyrsta meðferð með tocilizumab við COVID-19 hérlendis - sjúkratilfelli

A gentleman in his early fifties became ill with flu-like symptoms after vacationing abroad and was diagnosed with COVID-19 after returning to Iceland. A few days later he was admitted to the University Hospital, Landspitali, due to worsening respiratory symptoms and severe fatigue. A computed tomography scan of lthe lungs showed diffuse bilateral consolidations and ground glass changes. He developed respiratory failure and was transferred to the intensive care unit where he received further treatment, including tocilizumab (IL-6 receptor inhibitor). He subsequently showed clinical improvement and did not require endotracheal intubation.

Corrigendum to "A Clinical Decision Support System for the Diagnosis, Fracture Risks and Treatment of Osteoporosis".

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1155/2015/189769.].

Sequence variant at 8q24.21 associates with sciatica caused by lumbar disc herniation.

Lumbar disc herniation (LDH) is common and often debilitating. Microdiscectomy of herniated lumbar discs (LDHsurg) is performed on the most severe cases to resolve the resulting sciatica. Here we perform a genome-wide association study on 4,748 LDHsurg cases and 282,590 population controls and discover 37 highly correlated markers associating with LDHsurg at 8q24.21 (between CCDC26 and GSDMC), represented by rs6651255[C] (OR=0.81; P=5.6 × 10-12) with a stronger effect among younger patients than older. As rs6651255[C] also associates with height, we performed a Mendelian randomization analysis using height polygenic risk scores as instruments to estimate the effect of height on LDHsurg risk, and found that the marker's association with LDHsurg is much greater than predicted by its effect on height. In light of presented findings, we speculate that the effect of rs6651255 on LDHsurg is driven by susceptibility to developing severe and persistent sciatica upon LDH.

A clinical decision support system for the diagnosis, fracture risks and treatment of osteoporosis.

Expanding medical knowledge increases the potential risk of medical errors in clinical practice. We present, OPAD, a clinical decision support system in the field of the medical care of osteoporosis. We utilize clinical information from international guidelines and experts in the field of osteoporosis. Physicians are provided with user interface to insert standard patient data, from which OPAD provides instant diagnostic comments, 10-year risk of fragility fracture, treatment options for the given case, and when to offer a follow-up DXA-evaluation. Thus, the medical decision making is standardized according to the best expert knowledge at any given time. OPAD was evaluated in a set of 308 randomly selected individuals. OPAD's ten-year fracture risk computation is nearly identical to FRAX (r = 0.988). In 58% of cases OPAD recommended DXA evaluation at the present time. Following a DXA measurement in all individuals, 71% of those that were recommended to have DXA at the present time received recommendation for further investigation or specific treatment by the OPAD. In only 5.9% of individuals in which DXA was not recommended, the result of the BMD measurement changed the recommendations given by OPAD.