RESUMEN
Background: The use of Intra-aortic Balloon Pump (IABP) and Impella devices as a bridge to heart transplantation (HTx) has increased significantly in recent times. This study aimed to create and validate an explainable machine learning (ML) model that can predict the failure of status two listings and identify the clinical features that significantly impact this outcome. Methods: We used the UNOS registry database to identify HTx candidates listed as UNOS Status 2 between 2018 and 2022 and supported with either Impella (5.0 or 5.5) or IABP. We used the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm to build and validate ML models. We developed two models: (1) a comprehensive model that included all patients in our cohort and (2) separate models designed for each of the 11 UNOS regions. Results: We analyzed data from 4,178 patients listed as Status 2. Out of them, 12% had primary outcomes indicating Status 2 failure. Our ML models were based on 19 variables from the UNOS data. The comprehensive model had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.71 (±0.03), with a range between 0.44 (±0.08) and 0.74 (±0.01) across different regions. The models' specificity ranged from 0.75 to 0.96. The top five most important predictors were the number of inotropes, creatinine, sodium, BMI, and blood group. Conclusion: Using ML is clinically valuable for highlighting patients at risk, enabling healthcare providers to offer intensified monitoring, optimization, and care escalation selectively.
RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) and Impella device utilization as a bridge to heart transplantation (HTx) have risen exponentially. We aimed to explore the influence of device selection on HTx outcomes, considering regional practice variation. METHODS: A retrospective longitudinal study was performed on a United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) registry dataset. We included adult patients listed for HTx between October 2018 and April 2022 as status 2, as justified by requiring IABP or Impella support. The primary end-point was successful bridging to HTx as status 2. RESULTS: Of 32,806 HTx during the study period, 4178 met inclusion criteria (Impella n = 650, IABP n = 3528). Waitlist mortality increased from a nadir of 16 (in 2019) to a peak of 36 (in 2022) per thousand status 2 listed patients. Impella annual use increased from 8% in 2019 to 19% in 2021. Compared to IABP, Impella patients demonstrated higher medical acuity and lower success rate of transplantation as status 2 (92.1% vs 88.9%, p < 0.001). The IABP:Impella utilization ratio varied widely between regions, ranging from 1.77 to 21.31, with high Impella use in Southern and Western states. However, this difference was not justified by medical acuity, regional transplant volume, or waitlist time and did not correlate with waitlist mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The shift in utilizing Impella as opposed to IABP did not improve waitlist outcomes. Our results suggest that clinical practice patterns beyond mere device selection determine successful bridging to HTx. There is a critical need for objective evidence to guide tMCS utilization and a paradigm shift in the UNOS allocation system to achieve equitable HTx practice across the United States.
