District-Level Forecast of Achieving Trachoma Elimination as a Public Health Problem By 2030: An Ensemble Modelling Approach.

Assessing the feasibility of 2030 as a target date for global elimination of trachoma, and identification of districts that may require enhanced treatment to meet World Health Organization (WHO) elimination criteria by this date are key challenges in operational planning for trachoma programmes. Here we address these challenges by prospectively evaluating forecasting models of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) prevalence, leveraging ensemble-based approaches. Seven candidate probabilistic models were developed to forecast district-wise TF prevalence in 11 760 districts, trained using district-level data on the population prevalence of TF in children aged 1-9 years from 2004 to 2022. Geographical location, history of mass drug administration treatment, and previously measured prevalence data were included in these models as key predictors. The best-performing models were included in an ensemble, using weights derived from their relative likelihood scores. To incorporate the inherent stochasticity of disease transmission and challenges of population-level surveillance, we forecasted probability distributions for the TF prevalence in each geographic district, rather than predicting a single value. Based on our probabilistic forecasts, 1.46% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.43-1.48%) of all districts in trachoma-endemic countries, equivalent to 172 districts, will exceed the 5% TF control threshold in 2030 with the current interventions. Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem by 2030 may require enhanced intervention and/or surveillance of high-risk districts.

Impact of annual community-directed treatment with ivermectin on the incidence of epilepsy in Mvolo, a two-year prospective study.

OBJECTIVES: The potential impact of cumulative community-directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI) on epilepsy epidemiology in Mvolo County, South Sudan, an onchocerciasis-endemic area with high epilepsy prevalence, was investigated. Annual CDTI was introduced in 2002 in Mvolo, with interruptions in 2016 and 2020. METHODS: Comprehensive house-to-house surveys in Mvolo (June 2020 and 2022) identified cases of epilepsy, including probable nodding syndrome (pNS). Community workers screened households in selected sites for suspected epilepsy, and medical doctors confirmed the diagnosis and determined the year of seizure onset. The incidence of epilepsy, including pNS, was analysed using 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Data on ivermectin intake and onchocerciasis-associated manifestations (itching and blindness) were collected. RESULTS: The surveys covered 15,755 (2020) and 15,092 (2022) individuals, identifying 809 (5.2%, 95% CI: 4.8-5.5%) and 672 (4.5%, 95% CI: 4.1-4.8%) epilepsy cases, respectively. Each survey reported that a third of the surveyed population experienced skin itching, and 3% were blind. Epilepsy incidence per 100,000 person-years gradually declined, from 326.5 (95% CI: 266.8-399.1) in 2013-2015 to 96.6 (95% CI: 65.5-141.7) in 2019-2021. Similarly, pNS incidence per 100,000 person-years decreased from 151.7 (95% CI: 112.7-203.4) to 27.0 (95% CI: 12.5-55.5). Coverage of CDTI was suboptimal, reaching only 64.0% of participants in 2019 and falling to 24.1% in 2021 following an interruption in 2020 due to COVID-19 restrictions. Additionally, while 99.4% of cases had active epilepsy in 2022, less than a quarter of these had access to antiseizure medication. CONCLUSIONS: The observed decrease in epilepsy incidence despite suboptimal CDTI coverage highlights the potential impact of onchocerciasis control efforts and underscores the need to strengthen these efforts in Mvolo County and across South Sudan. As a proactive measure, Mvolo and neighbouring counties are transitioning to biannual CDTI. Furthermore, the substantial epilepsy treatment gap in Mvolo should be addressed.

Tropical Data: Approach and Methodology as Applied to Trachoma Prevalence Surveys.

PURPOSE: Population-based prevalence surveys are essential for decision-making on interventions to achieve trachoma elimination as a public health problem. This paper outlines the methodologies of Tropical Data, which supports work to undertake those surveys. METHODS: Tropical Data is a consortium of partners that supports health ministries worldwide to conduct globally standardised prevalence surveys that conform to World Health Organization recommendations. Founding principles are health ministry ownership, partnership and collaboration, and quality assurance and quality control at every step of the survey process. Support covers survey planning, survey design, training, electronic data collection and fieldwork, and data management, analysis and dissemination. Methods are adapted to meet local context and needs. Customisations, operational research and integration of other diseases into routine trachoma surveys have also been supported. RESULTS: Between 29th February 2016 and 24th April 2023, 3373 trachoma surveys across 50 countries have been supported, resulting in 10,818,502 people being examined for trachoma. CONCLUSION: This health ministry-led, standardised approach, with support from the start to the end of the survey process, has helped all trachoma elimination stakeholders to know where interventions are needed, where interventions can be stopped, and when elimination as a public health problem has been achieved. Flexibility to meet specific country contexts, adaptation to changes in global guidance and adjustments in response to user feedback have facilitated innovation in evidence-based methodologies, and supported health ministries to strive for global disease control targets.

Effect of onchocerciasis elimination measures on the incidence of epilepsy in Maridi, South Sudan: a 3-year longitudinal, prospective, population-based study.

BACKGROUND: High onchocerciasis transmission predisposes endemic communities to a high epilepsy burden. The 4·4% epilepsy prevalence documented in 2018 in Maridi, South Sudan, prompted the strengthening of onchocerciasis elimination measures. Community-directed treatment with ivermectin was implemented annually in 2017, 2018, and 2019, interrupted in 2020, and re-implemented biannually in 2021. We aimed to assess the effect of these interventions, along with slash and clear vector control on the incidence of epilepsy, including nodding syndrome. METHODS: In this longitudinal, prospective, population-based study, we did a two-stage house-to-house epilepsy survey before (May 10-30, 2018) and after (March 9-19, 2022) the strengthening of onchocerciasis elimination interventions in South Sudan. Strengthening also included the implementation of a community-based slash and clear vector control method that we initiated in 2019 at the Maridi dam (the main blackfly breeding site). Eight sites were surveyed near the Maridi dam and inclusion required residence in one of these sites. All household residents were first screened by community workers, followed by confirmation of the epilepsy diagnosis by trained clinicians. The primary outcome was epilepsy incidence, including nodding syndrome, which was assessed via self-reported new-onset epilepsy in the previous 4 years of each survey, confirmed by clinician assessment. FINDINGS: The preintervention survey included 17 652 people of whom 736 had epilepsy (315 female and 421 male), and the post-intervention survey included 14 402 people of whom 586 had epilepsy (275 female and 311 male). When biannual community-directed treatment with ivermectin was initiated in 2021, the intervention's coverage rose by 15·7% (95% CI 14·6-16·8); although only 56·6% of the population took ivermectin in 2021. Between 2018 and 2022, epilepsy incidence decreased from 348·8 (307·2-395·8) to 41·7 (22·6-75·0) per 100 000 person-years. Similarly, the incidence of nodding syndrome decreased from 154·7 (127·6-187·3) to 10·4 (2·7-33·2) per 100 000 person-years. The identified risk factors for epilepsy were: living closer to the Maridi dam, being aged between 6 and 40 years, not taking ivermectin, and being male. INTERPRETATION: In onchocerciasis-endemic areas with high epilepsy prevalence, strengthening onchocerciasis elimination interventions can decrease the incidence of epilepsy, including nodding syndrome. Additional efforts are needed to increase community-directed treatment with ivermectin coverage and sustain blackfly control in Maridi. FUNDING: Research for Health in Humanitarian Crisis, European Research Council, Research Foundation-Flanders, Research Foundation-Flanders, the Italian Agency for Development Cooperation, and La Caixa Foundation.

Rapid diagnostic testing for onchocerciasis in Maridi (South Sudan) before and after improving elimination strategies: a repeated cross-sectional survey.

Background: Maridi County is an onchocerciasis-endemic area in South Sudan. Annual community-directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTi) was instituted in Maridi since the early 2000s, but with low coverage. In 2021, the CDTi programme was strengthened to a six-monthly programme. Additionally, the community-based vector control strategy "Slash and Clear" has been implemented since 2019 at the Maridi Dam, the only blackfly breeding site in the area. This study assessed the effect of these reinforced onchocerciasis elimination interventions on the Onchocerca volvulus seroprevalence among young children, an indicator of ongoing transmission. Methods: Baseline and follow-up serosurveys were conducted in Maridi in 2019 (prior to strengthening onchocerciasis elimination efforts) and 2023, respectively. During both surveys, children aged three to nine years were recruited from five study sites situated at different distances from the Maridi Dam. Ov16 antibodies were detected via rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) using whole blood obtained by finger-pricking the participants. Baseline and follow-up Ov16 prevalence rates were calculated and compared. Results: In 2019, the Ov16 seroprevalence among children aged three to nine years was 24.5% compared to 30.6% in 2023 (p=0.22). Both surveys found a particularly high Ov16 seroprevalence in the study site closest to the Maridi Dam (35.0% in 2019 and 44.0% in 2023, p=0.52). The Ov16 seroprevalence had a non-significant decreasing trend in the three-year-old children, from 12.5% (3/24) in 2019 to 8.8% (3/34) in 2023 (p=0.65). Conclusion: The persistent Ov16 RDT seropositivity among three-year-old children in 2023 indicates ongoing O. volvulus transmission. Therefore, further strengthening of the onchocerciasis elimination programme is required. The study highlights the utility of RDTs in monitoring onchocerciasis transmission in highly endemic settings.