Setting research priorities for global pandemic preparedness: An international consensus and comparison with ChatGPT's output.

Background: In this priority-setting exercise, we sought to identify leading research priorities needed for strengthening future pandemic preparedness and response across countries. Methods: The International Society of Global Health (ISoGH) used the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) method to identify research priorities for future pandemic preparedness. Eighty experts in global health, translational and clinical research identified 163 research ideas, of which 42 experts then scored based on five pre-defined criteria. We calculated intermediate criterion-specific scores and overall research priority scores from the mean of individual scores for each research idea. We used a bootstrap (n = 1000) to compute the 95% confidence intervals. Results: Key priorities included strengthening health systems, rapid vaccine and treatment production, improving international cooperation, and enhancing surveillance efficiency. Other priorities included learning from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, managing supply chains, identifying planning gaps, and promoting equitable interventions. We compared this CHNRI-based outcome with the 14 research priorities generated and ranked by ChatGPT, encountering both striking similarities and clear differences. Conclusions: Priority setting processes based on human crowdsourcing - such as the CHNRI method - and the output provided by ChatGPT are both valuable, as they complement and strengthen each other. The priorities identified by ChatGPT were more grounded in theory, while those identified by CHNRI were guided by recent practical experiences. Addressing these priorities, along with improvements in health planning, equitable community-based interventions, and the capacity of primary health care, is vital for better pandemic preparedness and response in many settings.

Financial Distress and Psychological Well-Being During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Objective: We examine the impact of financial distress caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on mental health and psychological well-being. Methods: We analyze cross-sectional survey data (n = 2,545) from the Life during Pandemic study in Chile. We estimate linear probability models to analyze the relationship between economic fragility, financial distress, and psychological well-being. Results: Our findings show unemployment and income loss are highly predictive of experiencing a range of financial problems, such as a lack of savings, as well as difficulties paying bills, consumer debt, and mortgage loans. In turn, financial distress leads to a higher prevalence of poor well-being and mental health deterioration, and sleep problems. Conclusion: Expansion of mental health assistance services are needed, as new diagnosis of mental health conditions has increased, but treatment has not, pointing to a barrier in the access to some mental health care services during the pandemic. Policies designed with the objective of improving financial education are necessary to increase precautionary savings and financial resilience, and alleviate the psychological burden of debt in the future.

Research priorities to reduce the impact of COVID-19 in low- and middle-income countries.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused disruptions to the functioning of societies and their health systems. Prior to the pandemic, health systems in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) were particularly stretched and vulnerable. The International Society of Global Health (ISoGH) sought to systematically identify priorities for health research that would have the potential to reduce the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in LMICs. Methods: The Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) method was used to identify COVID-19-related research priorities. All ISoGH members were invited to participate. Seventy-nine experts in clinical, translational, and population research contributed 192 research questions for consideration. Fifty-two experts then scored those questions based on five pre-defined criteria that were selected for this exercise: 1) feasibility and answerability; 2) potential for burden reduction; 3) potential for a paradigm shift; 4) potential for translation and implementation; and 5) impact on equity. Results: Among the top 10 research priorities, research questions related to vaccination were prominent: health care system access barriers to equitable uptake of COVID-19 vaccination (ranked 1st), determinants of vaccine hesitancy (4th), development and evaluation of effective interventions to decrease vaccine hesitancy (5th), and vaccination impacts on vulnerable population/s (6th). Health care delivery questions also ranked highly, including: effective strategies to manage COVID-19 globally and in LMICs (2nd) and integrating health care for COVID-19 with other essential health services in LMICs (3rd). Additionally, the assessment of COVID-19 patients' needs in rural areas of LMICs was ranked 7th, and studying the leading socioeconomic determinants and consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic in LMICs using multi-faceted approaches was ranked 8th. The remaining questions in the top 10 were: clarifying paediatric case-fatality rates (CFR) in LMICs and identifying effective strategies for community engagement against COVID-19 in different LMIC contexts. Interpretation: Health policy and systems research to inform COVID-19 vaccine uptake and equitable access to care are urgently needed, especially for rural, vulnerable, and/or marginalised populations. This research should occur in parallel with studies that will identify approaches to minimise vaccine hesitancy and effectively integrate care for COVID-19 with other essential health services in LMICs. ISoGH calls on the funders of health research in LMICs to consider the urgency and priority of this research during the COVID-19 pandemic and support studies that could make a positive difference for the populations of LMICs.

The Psychosocial Burden of Families with Childhood Blood Cancer.

Cancer is the second leading cause of death for children, and leukemias are the most common pediatric cancer diagnoses in Chile. Childhood cancer is a traumatic experience and is associated with distress, pain, and other negative experiences for patients and their families. Thus, psychosocial costs represent a large part of the overall burden of cancer. This study examines psychosocial experiences in a sample of 90 families of children with blood-related cancer in Chile. We provide a global overview of the family experience, focusing on patients, caregivers, and siblings. We find that most families report a negative impact upon diagnosis; disruptions in family dynamics; a range of negative feelings of the patient, such as depression, discouragement, and irritability; and difficulty with social lives. Additionally, they report negative effects in the relationship between the siblings of the patient and their parents, and within their caregivers' spouse/partner relationship, as well as a worsening of the economic condition of the primary caregiver. Furthermore, over half of the families in the sample had to move due to diagnosis and/or treatment. Promoting interventions that can help patients, siblings, and parents cope with distress and promote resilience and well-being are important.

Gender Inequality and Mental Health During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Objective: We explore gender differences in mental health deterioration and psychological well-being due to the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the mechanisms through which these differences may operate. Methods: Using data from the Life during Pandemic survey in Chile, which covers 2,545 adult respondents, we estimate econometric models to explore gender differences in psychological well-being and mental health as well as economic fragility and household workload during the COVID-19 pandemic. Results: We find women are more likely to report overall bad mental health and deterioration of well-being. They are also more likely to have a new diagnosis of a mental health problem, to be pursuing treatment and taking prescription medication. Moreover, women report an increase in household chores and in childcare, and are more likely to have lost their employment or experienced a loss of income due to the pandemic. Conclusion: Our results offer a general picture of gender differences in the psychological impact of COVID-19. We argue that policies that mitigate economic stress and address the needs of women specifically may ease mental health deterioration due to the pandemic.

Medical Cost of Cancer Care for Privately Insured Children in Chile.

Medical care for children with cancer is complex and expensive, and represents a large financial burden for families around the world. We estimated the medical cost of cancer care for children under the age of 18, using administrative records of the universe of children with private insurance in Chile in the period 2007-2018, based on a sample of 3853 observations. We analyzed total cost and out-of-pocket spending by patients' characteristics, type of cancer, and by service. Children with cancer had high annual medical costs, USD 32,287 on average for 2018. Costs were higher for the younger children in the sample. The vast majority of the cost was driven by inpatient hospital care for all types of cancer. The average total cost increased 20% in real terms over the period of study, while out-of-pocket expenses increased almost 29%. Private insurance beneficiaries faced a significant economic burden associated with medical treatment of a child with cancer. Interventions that reduce hospitalizations, as well as systemwide reforms that incorporate maximum out-of-pocket payments and prevent catastrophic expenditures, can contribute to alleviating the financial burden of childhood cancer.

Does Education Mitigate the Effect of Population Aging on Health Expenditure? A Panel Data Study of Latin American Countries.

Objective: To examine whether the effect of population aging on healthcare expenditures as a share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is attenuated in more educated countries. Method: The analysis is based on a dataset of 22 Latin American countries between 1995 and 2013. We estimate panel data models with country and time fixed effects, and control for potential nonlinear effects of population aging on health expenditure. Results: We find population aging increases health expenditure as a share of GDP in economies characterized by low levels of education, but this effect is mitigated in economies with higher levels of education. Results are driven by private health expenditures. Discussion: Results suggest population aging and education have a stronger influence on healthcare expenditures in less developed countries. This finding is important in a context in which the rapid growth of the aging population is likely to lead to significant costs in terms of health expenditures, but less so in more educated societies.

Examining the relationship between poverty and length of stay: a repeated cross-sectional study of paediatric hospitalisations in Chile.

OBJECTIVE: To measure poverty-based disparities in inpatient length of stay for paediatric hospitalisations. In particular, this paper examines the relationship between municipality level poverty rates and length of stay, accounting for individual level characteristics. DESIGN: We use patient discharge data to conduct a repeated cross-sectional study of the totality of paediatric hospitalisations in 15 regions of Chile, in the years 2011, 2013, 2015 and 2017. SETTING: All hospital discharges in 15 regions of Chile. PARTICIPANTS: 1 033 222 discharges for children under the age of 15, between 2011 and 2017. OUTCOME MEASURES: Length of stay (LOS); LOS by type of insurance and type of hospital; hospitalisation rates; municipality-level average LOS. RESULTS: We find that municipality level poverty rates are a significant predictor of LOS, even after controlling for individual and area level characteristics, including type of insurance. Children from municipalities in the poorest quintile have a LOS that is 14% shorter as compared with children from municipalities in the richest quintile. This relationship is stronger for publicly insured children: the decrease in LOS associated with the same poverty change is of 22%. CONCLUSIONS: This paper shows that there is an association between municipality-level poverty rates and length of stay for paediatric hospitalisations in Chile. For the vast majority of the sample, and after controlling for individual level characteristics, an increase in the municipality level poverty rate is associated with a decrease in the length of stay. Further, there is a non-linearity in the relationship, where at the highest poverty rates, poverty and LOS are positively associated. These findings are robust after controlling for type of hospital (public vs private), type of insurance (public vs private), type of diagnosis, as well as year and region fixed effects.

Publicly insured caesarean sections in private hospitals: a repeated cross-sectional analysis in Chile.

OBJECTIVE: To measure the likelihood of delivery by caesarean section (C-section) for publicly insured births as compared with privately insured births, across all hospitals and within private hospitals. DESIGN: Repeated cross-sectional analysis. SETTING: The universe of hospital births in 15 regions of Chile. PARTICIPANTS: 2 405 082 singleton births between 2001 and 2014. OUTCOME MEASURES: C-section rates by type of hospital and type of insurance; contribution to overall C-section rates of subgroups by type of insurance and type of hospital; adjusted OR of privately insured births delivered by C-section compared with publicly insured births, across all hospitals and within private hospitals; percentage of discharges related to maternal morbidity and mortality across groups; length of stay after delivery. RESULTS: An increasing percentage of publicly insured births occur in private facilities each year. Approximately three out of four publicly insured births in private hospitals are delivered by C-section. The adjusted odd of C-section delivery in a private maternity unit is lower for those privately insured than for those with public insurance: OR 0.6, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.64. There is no evidence that these women would have been more likely to have a C-section out of medical necessity. CONCLUSIONS: We find an association between high C-section rates and publicly insured women delivering at private institutions in Chile, and show that this group is driving the overall high and growing rates. There is a need for a more informed surveillance on the part of the public insurance system of its private providers' C-section practices.

Early life environment and adult height: The case of Chile.

In this paper, we analyze the relationship between adult height and early-life disease environment, proxied by the infant mortality rate (IMR) in the first year of life, using cohort-region level data for Chile for 1960-1989. IMRs show a remarkable reduction of 100 points per thousand over this thirty-year period, declining from 119.4 to 21.0 per thousand. We also document a 0.96 cm increase in height per decade.We find that the drop in IMRs observed among our cohorts explains almost all of the long-term trend in rising adult heights, and that per capita GDP does not appear to have any predictive power in this context. Results are robust in a variety of specifications, which include area and cohort dummies, an adjustment for internal migration, and urbanization rates. Our results point to the long-term effect of a public health policy.

Can Walmart make us healthier? Prescription drug prices and health care utilization.

This paper analyzes how prices in the retail pharmaceutical market affect health care utilization. Specifically, I study the impact of Walmart's $4 Prescription Drug Program on utilization of antihypertensive drugs and on hospitalizations for conditions amenable to drug therapy. Identification relies on the change in the availability of cheap drugs introduced by Walmart's program, exploiting variation in the distance to the nearest Walmart across ZIP codes in a difference-in-differences framework. I find that living close to a source of cheap drugs increases utilization of antihypertensive medications by 7 percent and decreases the probability of an avoidable hospitalization by 6.2 percent.