Nationwide analysis of open groin hernia repairs in Italy from 2015 to 2020.

INTRODUCTION: Inguinal hernia repair is one of the most commonly performed operations in general surgery. A total of 130.000 inguinal hernia repairs are performed yearly in Italy, and approximately 20 million inguinal hernias are treated worldwide annually. This report represents the trend analysis in inguinal hernia repair in Italy from a nationwide dataset for the 6-year period from 2015 to 2020. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Based on regional hospital discharge records, all the inguinal hernia repairs performed in public and private hospitals in Italy between 2015 and 2020 were reviewed based on diagnosis and procedure codes. For the aim of this study, data from the AgeNas (The National Agency for Regional Health Services) data source were analyzed. RESULTS: Elective inguinal hernia repairs outnumbered urgent operations over the 6-year study period, ranging from 122,737 operations in 2015 to 65,780 in 2020 as absolute numbers, and from 87.96 to 83.3% of total procedures in 2019 and 2020 respectively, with an annual change ranging from - 66.58%, between 2020 and 2019, to - 2.49%, between 2019 and 2018 (mean = - 18.74%; CI =- 46.7%-9.22%; p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: This large-scale review of groin hernia data from a nationwide Italian dataset provides a unique opportunity to obtain a snapshot of open groin hernia repair activity. More specifically, there is a trend to perform more elective than urgent procedures and there is a steady decrease in the amount of open hernia repairs in favor to laparoscopy.

Laparoscopic approach in emergency for the treatment of acute incarcerated groin hernia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PURPOSE: Minimally invasive approach for acute incarcerated groin hernia repair is still debated. To clarify this debate, a literature review was performed. METHODS: Search was performed in PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cochrane databases, founding 28,183 articles. RESULTS: Fifteen articles, and 433 patients were included (16 bilateral hernia, range 3-8). Three hundred and eighty-eight (75.3%) and 103 patients (22.9%) underwent transabdominal preperitoneal and totally extraperitoneal repair, respectively, and in 5 patients, the defect was buttressed with broad ligament (1.1%) (not specified in 3 patients). Herniated structures were resected in 48 cases (range 1-9). Intraoperative complications and conversion occurred in 4 (range 0-1) and 10 (range 0-3) patients, respectively. Mean operative time and hospital stay ranged between 50 and 147 min, and 2 and 7 days, respectively. Postoperative complications ranged between 1 and 19. Five studies compared laparoscopic and open approaches (163 and 235 patients). Herniated structures were resected in 19 (11.7%) and 42 cases (17.9%) for laparoscopic and open approach, respectively (p = 0.1191). Intraoperative complications and conversion occurred in one (0.6%) and 5 (2.1%) patients (p = 0.4077), and in two (1.2%) and 19 (8.1%) patients (p = 0.0023), in case of laparoscopic or open approach, respectively. Mean operative time and hospital stay were 94.4 ± 40.2 and 102.8 ± 43.7 min, and 4.8 ± 2.2 and 11 ± 3.1 days, in laparoscopic or open approach, respectively. Sixteen (9.8%) and 57 (24.3%) postoperative complications occurred. CONCLUSION: Laparoscopy seems to be a safe and feasible approach for the treatment of acute incarcerated groin hernia. Further studies are required for definitive conclusions.

Transversus abdominis release (TAR) for ventral hernia repair: open or robotic? Short-term outcomes from a systematic review with meta-analysis.

PURPOSE: To compare early postoperative outcomes after transversus abdominis release (TAR) for ventral hernia repair with open (oTAR) and robotic (rTAR) approach. METHODS: A systematic search of PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS and Web of Science databases was conducted to identify comparative studies until October 2020. A meta-analysis of postoperative short-term outcomes was performed including complications rate, operative time, length of stay, surgical site infection (SSI), surgical site occurrence (SSO), SSO requiring intervention (SSOPI), systemic complications, readmission, and reoperation rates as measure outcomes. RESULTS: Six retrospective studies were included in the analysis with a total of 831 patients who underwent rTAR (n = 237) and oTAR (n = 594). Robotic TAR was associated with lower risk of complications rate (9.3 vs 20.7%, OR 0.358, 95% CI 0.218-0.589, p < 0.001), lower risk of developing SSO (5.3 vs 11.5%, OR 0.669, 95% CI 0.307-1.458, p = 0.02), lower risk of developing systemic complications (6.3 vs 26.5%, OR 0.208, 95% CI 0.100-0.433, p < 0.001), shorter hospital stay (SMD - 4.409, 95% CI - 6.000 to - 2.818, p < 0.001) but longer operative time (SMD 53.115, 95% CI 30.236-75.993, p < 0.01) compared with oTAR. There was no statistically significant difference in terms of SSI, SSOPI, readmission, and reoperation rates. CONCLUSION: Robotic TAR improves recovery by adding the benefits of minimally invasive procedures when compared to open surgery. Although postoperative complications appear to decrease with a robotic approach, further studies are needed to support the real long-term and cost-effective advantages.

Laparoscopic Appendectomy Performed by junior SUrgeonS: impact of 3D visualization on surgical outcome. Randomized multicentre clinical trial. (LAPSUS TRIAL).

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of 3D visualization applied to laparoscopic appendectomy (LA) performed by young surgeons (YS). We considered both operative features and clinical outcomes, aiming to highlight the benefits that this technology could bring to novice surgeons and their laparoscopic training. METHODS: All the surgical procedures were performed by residents who had performed less than 20 appendectomies prior to the beginning of the study under the supervision of an expert surgeon. At the time of enrolment patients were randomized into two arms: Experimental arm (EA): laparoscopic appendectomy performed with laparoscopic 3D vision technology. Control arm (CA): laparoscopic appendectomy performed with the "standard" 2D technology. The primary endpoint was to find any statistically significant difference in operative time between the two arms. Differences in conversion rate, intra-operative complications, post-operative complications and surgeons' operative comfort were considered as secondary endpoints. RESULTS: We randomized 135 patients into the two study arms. The two groups were homogeneous for demographic characteristics, BMI and ASA scores. The characteristics of clinical presentation and anatomical position showed no significant difference. The operative time was longer in the CA (57.5 vs. 49.6 min, p = 0.048, 95% CI). In the subgroup of complicated appendicitis, this trend toward inferior operative time was confirmed without reaching statistical significance (2D = 60 min, 3D = 49.5 min, p = 0.082 95% CI). No intra-operative complications were observed in either group. The conversion rate was 5.6% (4 patients) in the 2D group and 4.6% (3 patients) in 3D group. CONCLUSION: The utilization of 3D laparoscopy was associated with reduction in operative time without influencing other parameters, in particular without altering the safety profile of the procedure.

Should enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) pathways be preferred over standard practice for patients undergoing abdominal wall reconstruction? A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PURPOSE: Although many studies assessing enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) pathways in abdominal wall reconstruction (AWR) have recently demonstrated lower rates of postoperative morbidity and a decrease in postoperative length of stay compared to standard practice, the utility of ERAS in AWR remains largely unknown. METHODS: A systematic literature search for randomized and non-randomized studies comparing ERAS (ERAS +) pathways and standard protocols (Control) as an adopted practice for patients undergoing AWR was performed using MEDLINE, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Scopus, Web of Science, and EMBASE databases. A predefined search strategy was implemented. The included studies were reviewed for primary outcomes: overall postoperative morbidity, abdominal wall morbidity, surgical site infection (SSI), and length of hospital stay; and for secondary outcome: operative time, estimated blood loss, time to discontinuation of narcotics, time to urinary catheter removal, time to return to bowel function, time to return to regular diet, and readmission rate. Standardized mean difference (SMD) was calculated for continuous variables and Odds Ratio for dichotomous variables. RESULTS: Five non-randomized studies were included for qualitative and quantitative synthesis. 840 patients were allocated to either ERAS + (382) or Control (458). ERAS + and Control groups showed equivalent results with regard to the incidence of postoperative morbidity (OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.32-1.63; I2= 76%), SSI (OR 1.17, 95% CI 0.43-3.22; I2= 54%), time to return to bowel function (SMD - 2.57, 95% CI - 5.32 to 0.17; I2= 99%), time to discontinuation of narcotics (SMD - 0.61, 95% CI - 1.81 to 0.59; I2= 97%), time to urinary catheter removal (SMD - 2.77, 95% CI - 6.05 to 0.51; I2= 99%), time to return to regular diet (SMD - 0.77, 95% CI - 2.29 to 0.74; I2= 98%), and readmission rate (OR 0.82, 95% CI 0.52-1.27; I2= 49%). Length of hospital stay was significantly shorter in the ERAS + compared to the Control group (SMD - 0.93, 95% CI - 1.84 to - 0.02; I2= 97%). CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of an ERAS pathway into the clinical practice for patients undergoing AWR may cause a decreased length of hospitalization. These results should be interpreted with caution, due to the low level of evidence and the high heterogeneity.

Reproductive factors and risk of melanoma: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The association between reproductive factors and risk of cutaneous melanoma (CM) is unclear. We investigated this issue in the Norwegian Women and Cancer cohort study. OBJECTIVES: To examine the association between the reproductive factors age at menarche, menstrual cycle length, parity, age at first and last birth, menopausal status, breastfeeding duration and length of ovulatory life, and CM risk, overall and by histological subtypes and anatomical site. METHODS: We followed 165 712 women aged 30-75 years at inclusion from 1991-2007 to the end of 2015. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: The mean age at cohort enrolment was 49 years. During a median follow-up of 18 years, 1347 cases of CM were identified. No reproductive factors were clearly associated with CM risk. When stratifying by histological subtype we observed significant heterogeneity (P = 0·01) in the effect of length of ovulatory life on the risk of superficial spreading melanoma (HR 1·02, 95% CI 1·01-1·04 per year increase) and nodular melanoma (HR 0·97, 95% CI 0·94-1·01 per year increase). When stratifying by anatomical site, menopausal status (HR 0·54, 95% CI 0·31-0·92, postmenopausal vs. premenopausal) and menstrual cycle length (HR 1·07, 95% CI 1·01-1·13, per day increase) were associated with CM of the trunk, and significant heterogeneity between anatomical sites was observed for menopausal status (P = 0·04). CONCLUSIONS: In this large population-based Norwegian cohort study, we did not find convincing evidence of an association between reproductive factors and risk of CM.

Use of aspirin, other nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and acetaminophen and risk of endometrial cancer: the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium.

BACKGROUND: Regular use of aspirin has been associated with a reduced risk of cancer at several sites but the data for endometrial cancer are conflicting. Evidence regarding use of other analgesics is limited. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We pooled individual-level data from seven cohort and five case-control studies participating in the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium including 7120 women with endometrial cancer and 16 069 controls. For overall analyses, study-specific odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using logistic regression and combined using random-effects meta-analysis; for stratified analyses, we used mixed-effects logistic regression with study as a random effect. RESULTS: At least weekly use of aspirin and non-aspirin nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) was associated with an approximately 15% reduced risk of endometrial cancer among both overweight and obese women (OR = 0.86 [95% CI 0.76-0.98] and 0.86 [95% CI 0.76-0.97], respectively, for aspirin; 0.87 [95% CI 0.76-1.00] and 0.84 [0.74-0.96], respectively, for non-aspirin NSAIDs). There was no association among women of normal weight (body mass index < 25 kg/m2, Pheterogeneity = 0.04 for aspirin, Pheterogeneity = 0.003 for NSAIDs). Among overweight and obese women, the inverse association with aspirin was stronger for use 2-6 times/week (OR = 0.81, 95% CI 0.68-0.96) than for daily use (0.91, 0.80-1.03), possibly because a high proportion of daily users use low-dose formulations. There was no clear association with use of acetaminophen. CONCLUSION: Our pooled analysis provides further evidence that use of standard-dose aspirin or other NSAIDs may reduce risk of endometrial cancer among overweight and obese women.

Exploring the effect of a lifestyle intervention on cancer risk: 43-year follow-up of the randomized Oslo diet and antismoking study.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The Oslo diet and antismoking study showed that counselling for a healthy lifestyle reduced lifelong coronary mortality in high-risk men. We explored whether the same counselling reduced also cancer risk. METHODS: The study randomly allocated males at high coronary risk to either a 5-year intervention for lifestyle changes (cholesterol-lowering dietary changes, weight loss and stopping smoking) or a control group (1 : 1) in 1972/73. We explored the incidence and mortality of all cancers and cancer forms related to smoking, BMI or diet up to 43 years after randomization. RESULTS: A total of 595 men in the intervention and 621 in the control group were included. At inclusion median age was 45 years, 588 (48.4%) subjects were overweight (BMI > 25 kg m-2 ) and 925 (76.1%) current smokers. The intervention did not reduce the risk of cancer after 43 years (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.96, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.80-1.15). In the first 25 years of follow-up, among the 1088 (89.5%) men who were overweight/obese and/or smokers, the intervention reduced the incidence of those cancer forms related to smoking, BMI or diet (including carcinoma of the respiratory, digestive and urinary tracts; adjusted HR 0.69; 95% CI 0.49-0.99). The intervention had no significant effect on incidence beyond 25 years, or on mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The 5-year counselling for a healthy lifestyle did not reduce the overall cancer risk in the very long term. However, in the first 25 years, the counselling reduced the risk of relevant cancer types in overweight/obese subjects and smokers.

Improved prognosis of young patients with breast cancer undergoing breast-conserving surgery.

BACKGROUND: The aim of the present study was to evaluate how breast cancer prognosis has evolved over time in young women treated with breast-conserving surgery (BCS). METHODS: Data from patients younger than 40 years who had BCS and whole-breast radiotherapy in a single cancer centre between 1997 and 2010 were analysed. The patients were followed until 2016. Endpoints were local recurrence, any breast cancer-related event and death from any cause. RESULTS: A total of 1331 patients were included in the study. After a median follow-up of 9·3 years, 114 local recurrences, 289 breast cancer-related events and 138 deaths had occurred. Women were divided into three groups of similar size based on tertiles of the date of diagnosis: 1997-2002 (524 patients), 2003-2005 (350) and 2006-2010 (457). The risk of local recurrence was 1·42 per 100 person-years in women diagnosed in the first interval, 0·85 per 100 person-years in the second and 0·48 per 100 person-years in the third (P for trend = 0·028). The respective values were 3·01, 2·52 and 2·07 per 100 person-years for any breast cancer-related event (P = 0·004), and 1·59, 1·22 and 0·64 per 100 person-years for death (P = 0·003). Each passing year was associated with a decreasing risk of local recurrence (hazard ratio (HR) 0·93, 95 per cent c.i. 0·87 to 1·00), any breast cancer-related event (HR 0·94, 0·91 to 0·98) and death (HR 0·89, 0·83 to 0·94). A major improvement in prognosis was observed after 2005, when the classification of breast cancer molecular subtypes and use of trastuzumab were implemented in routine clinical practice. CONCLUSION: In the past two decades, both local control and overall prognosis have improved significantly in young women (aged less than 40 years) with breast cancer who undergo BCS.

Alcohol consumption and risk of urothelial cell bladder cancer in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition cohort.

Findings on the association between alcohol consumption and bladder cancer are inconsistent. We investigated that association in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. We included 476,160 individuals mostly aged 35-70 years, enrolled in ten countries and followed for 13.9 years on average. Hazard ratios (HR) for developing urothelial cell carcinoma (UCC; 1,802 incident cases) were calculated using Cox proportional hazards models. Alcohol consumption at baseline and over the life course was analyzed, as well as different types of beverages (beer, wine, spirits). Baseline alcohol intake was associated with a statistically nonsignificant increased risk of UCC (HR 1.03; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00-1.06 for each additional 12 g/day). HR in smokers was 1.04 (95% CI 1.01-1.07). Men reporting high baseline intakes of alcohol (>96 g/day) had an increased risk of UCC (HR 1.57; 95% CI 1.03-2.40) compared to those reporting moderate intakes (<6 g/day), but no dose-response relationship emerged. In men, an increased risk of aggressive forms of UCC was observed even at lower doses (>6 to 24 g/day). Average lifelong alcohol intake was not associated with the risk of UCC, however intakes of spirits > 24 g/day were associated with an increased risk of UCC in men (1.38; 95% CI 1.01-1.91) and smokers (1.39; 95% CI 1.01-1.92), compared to moderate intakes. We found no association between alcohol and UCC in women and never smokers. In conclusion, we observed some associations between alcohol and UCC in men and in smokers, possibly because of residual confounding by tobacco smoking.

Risk of second primary malignancies among 1537 melanoma patients and risk of second primary melanoma among 52 354 cancer patients in Northern Italy.

BACKGROUND: The number of melanoma survivors has been increasing for decades due to early diagnosis and improved survival. These patients have an increased risk of developing a second primary cancer (SPC); also, melanoma is frequently diagnosed among patients firstly diagnosed with an extracutaneous malignancy. OBJECTIVE: We evaluated the risk of developing a SPC among 1537 melanoma patients, and the risk of second primary melanoma (SPM) in 52 354 extracutaneous cancer patients, who were treated at the European Institute of Oncology in Milan, Italy, during 2000-2010. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We calculated standardized incidence ratios (SIR) by applying gender-, age-, year- and region-specific reference rates to the follow-up time accrued between the diagnosis of the first and the second primary malignancies. RESULTS: Seventy-six SPC were diagnosed during a median follow-up of 4 years, of which 49 (64%) during the first 2 years upon melanoma diagnosis. The SIR was increased for cancer of breast (4.10, 95% CI 2.79-6.03), thyroid (4.67, 95% CI 1.94-11.22), brain (6.13, 95% CI 2.30-16.33) and for non-Hodgkin lymphoma (3.12, 95% CI 1.30-7.50). During a median follow-up of 4 years, 127 SPM were diagnosed: thick lesions were less frequent than for melanoma diagnosed as first cancer. The SIR was increased for cancer of breast (5.13, 95%CI 3.91-6.73), thyroid (16.2, 95%CI: 5.22-50.2), head and neck (5.62, 95%CI 1.41-22.50), soft tissue (8.68, 95%CI 2.17-34.70), cervix (12.5, 95% CI 3.14-50.20), kidney (3.19, 95%CI 1.52-6.68), prostate (4.36, 95%CI 2.63-7.24) and acute myeloid leukaemia (6.44, 95%CI 2.42-17.20). CONCLUSIONS: The most likely causes of these associations are the clustering of lifestyle risk factors in the same subgroups of population, mainly on a sociocultural basis and surveillance bias. This raises important questions about how to best follow cancer survivors by avoiding an inefficient use of resources and an excessive medicalization of these patients' lives.

Physical function of the upper limb after breast cancer surgery. Results from the SOUND (Sentinel node vs. Observation after axillary Ultra-souND) trial.

BACKGROUND: The SOUND (Sentinel node vs. Observation after axillary Ultra-souND) trial is an ongoing prospective randomized study comparing sentinel node biopsy vs. no axillary surgical staging in patients with small breast cancer and negative pre-operative ultra-sound of the axilla. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The first 180 recruited patients were administered the QuickDASH (Disability Arm and Shoulder) questionnaire at different time points (before surgery, 1 week, 6 months and 1 year after surgery) to evaluate the physical function of the ipsilateral upper limb, The QuickDASH score ranges from 0 (no disability) to 100 (complete disability). RESULTS: 176 patients were available for analysis (94 in SNB arm and 82 in observation arm). The two groups were comparable with respect to age, tumor characteristics and treatments. Pre-surgery score values were 3.0% and 2.7% in the SNB arm and observation arm, respectively (P = 0.730). One week after surgery, the score increased to 24.0% in the SNB arm and 10.6% in the observation arm (P < 0.001). After 6 and 12 months, the score decreased in both arms to values similar to baseline values. The overall trend in time of the score was significantly different between the two arms (P < 0.001), even after the exclusion of five patients who received AD in the SNB arm (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Patients who underwent SNB had a significantly higher rate of disability in the early post-operative period compared to patients who did not. The avoidance of SNB might translate into a considerable reduction of physical and emotional distress.

Angiosarcoma and atypical vascular lesions of the breast: diagnostic and prognostic role of MYC gene amplification and protein expression.

MYC amplification has been reported as a prominent feature of secondary angiosarcomas (SAS). The differential diagnosis between atypical vascular lesion (AVL) and low-grade angiosarcoma (AS) can be occasionally very difficult or even impossible, and MYC amplification status has been pointed as an important diagnostic tool to distinguish cutaneous vascular lesions of the breast. We assessed MYC amplification and protein expression status by fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) and immunohistochemistry (IHC), respectively, in 49 patients diagnosed with breast AS, and 30 patients diagnosed with post-radiation AVL of the breast. Clinical and pathological features, and follow-up data were collected, and survival analyses were performed. Among 37 patients with SAS, twenty patients had tumors with high-level MYC amplification and protein overexpression (54 %). None of primary angiosarcomas (PAS) or AVL cases showed MYC amplification or protein expression. Concordance between MYC amplification (FISH) and protein expression (IHC) was 100 % in AVL, PAS, and SAS. Survival analysis of the SAS patients demonstrates that those with MYC amplification had a significantly worse overall survival compared to cases without MYC amplification (P = 0.035). There was a non-significant trend toward a poor disease-free survival between cases with and without MYC amplification (P = 0.155). Our findings show that MYC amplification is a highly specific but poorly sensitive marker for SAS and, therefore, a negative result does not exclude the diagnosis of angiosarcoma. MYC amplification was associated with adverse prognosis, suggesting a prognostic role of MYC amplification status on SAS of the breast.

Alcohol consumption and site-specific cancer risk: a comprehensive dose-response meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol is a risk factor for cancer of the oral cavity, pharynx, oesophagus, colorectum, liver, larynx and female breast, whereas its impact on other cancers remains controversial. METHODS: We investigated the effect of alcohol on 23 cancer types through a meta-analytic approach. We used dose-response meta-regression models and investigated potential sources of heterogeneity. RESULTS: A total of 572 studies, including 486 538 cancer cases, were identified. Relative risks (RRs) for heavy drinkers compared with nondrinkers and occasional drinkers were 5.13 for oral and pharyngeal cancer, 4.95 for oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma, 1.44 for colorectal, 2.65 for laryngeal and 1.61 for breast cancer; for those neoplasms there was a clear dose-risk relationship. Heavy drinkers also had a significantly higher risk of cancer of the stomach (RR 1.21), liver (2.07), gallbladder (2.64), pancreas (1.19) and lung (1.15). There was indication of a positive association between alcohol consumption and risk of melanoma and prostate cancer. Alcohol consumption and risk of Hodgkin's and Non-Hodgkin's lymphomas were inversely associated. CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol increases risk of cancer of oral cavity and pharynx, oesophagus, colorectum, liver, larynx and female breast. There is accumulating evidence that alcohol drinking is associated with some other cancers such as pancreas and prostate cancer and melanoma.

Fetal cardiac parameters for prediction of twin-to-twin transfusion syndrome.

OBJECTIVES: To assess myocardial performance index measured by conventional Doppler (MPI) and by tissue Doppler imaging (MPI') at 18 weeks' gestation in monochorionic diamniotic twins for the prediction of twin-to-twin transfusion syndrome (TTTS). METHODS: This was a single-center observational study of 100 uncomplicated monochorionic diamniotic twin pregnancies attending the twin pregnancy clinic at the University Hospital Spedali Civili of Brescia from 2009 to 2012. MPI and MPI' were obtained from the left (LV) and right (RV) ventricles of each twin at around 18 weeks of gestation (range, 17 + 1 to 19 + 4 weeks) and fortnightly thereafter. Cases which later developed TTTS formed the study group, and the remaining controls were subdivided into those continuing as uncomplicated pregnancies and those which later developed selective intrauterine growth restriction (sIUGR). Data were analyzed by receiver-operating characteristics curve analysis and univariate and multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Of the 100 pregnancies, 88 were controls (84 uncomplicated and four developed sIUGR) and 12 developed TTTS. RV-MPI and LV-MPI, and LV-MPI' were significantly higher in future TTTS recipients than in controls, while RV-MPI' was significantly lower in donors. RV-MPI and LV-MPI and LV-MPI' were found to be predictive indicators in pregnancies that had not yet developed TTTS. Their negative predictive values were > 90%, and their specificities > 80%. The best performing index was LV-MPI', with a sensitivity of 91.7% and specificity of 88.6%. CONCLUSIONS: Before diagnosis of TTTS, the cardiac function (as assessed by MPI and MPI') of the future donor twin is not grossly abnormal, but that of the recipient is abnormal. We identified cardiac indices predictive of the subsequent development of TTTS, and suggest a possible role of these indices in planning the follow-up of monochorionic diamniotic twin pregnancies.