Predicting state level suicide fatalities in the united states with realtime data and machine learning.

Digital trace data and machine learning techniques are increasingly being adopted to predict suicide-related outcomes at the individual level; however, there is also considerable public health need for timely data about suicide trends at the population level. Although significant geographic variation in suicide rates exist by state within the United States, national systems for reporting state suicide trends typically lag by one or more years. We developed and validated a deep learning based approach to utilize real-time, state-level online (Mental Health America web-based depression screenings; Google and YouTube Search Trends), social media (Twitter), and health administrative data (National Syndromic Surveillance Program emergency department visits) to estimate weekly suicide counts in four participating states. Specifically, per state, we built a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model to combine signals from the real-time data sources and compared predicted values of suicide deaths from our model to observed values in the same state. Our LSTM model produced accurate estimates of state-specific suicide rates in all four states (percentage error in suicide rate of -2.768% for Utah, -2.823% for Louisiana, -3.449% for New York, and -5.323% for Colorado). Furthermore, our deep learning based approach outperformed current gold-standard baseline autoregressive models that use historical death data alone. We demonstrate an approach to incorporate signals from multiple proxy real-time data sources that can potentially provide more timely estimates of suicide trends at the state level. Timely suicide data at the state level has the potential to improve suicide prevention planning and response tailored to the needs of specific geographic communities.

Cortico-cerebellar coordination facilitates neuroprosthetic control.

Temporally coordinated neural activity is central to nervous system function and purposeful behavior. Still, there is a paucity of evidence demonstrating how this coordinated activity within cortical and subcortical regions governs behavior. We investigated this between the primary motor (M1) and contralateral cerebellar cortex as rats learned a neuroprosthetic/brain-machine interface (BMI) task. In neuroprosthetic task, actuator movements are causally linked to M1 "direct" neurons that drive the decoder for successful task execution. However, it is unknown how task-related M1 activity interacts with the cerebellum. We observed a notable 3 to 6 hertz coherence that emerged between these regions' local field potentials (LFPs) with learning that also modulated task-related spiking. We identified robust task-related indirect modulation in the cerebellum, which developed a preferential relationship with M1 task-related activity. Inhibiting cerebellar cortical and deep nuclei activity through optogenetics led to performance impairments in M1-driven neuroprosthetic control. Together, these results demonstrate that cerebellar influence is necessary for M1-driven neuroprosthetic control.

Fournier's gangrene: a review of predictive scoring systems and practical guide for patient management.

This article aims to provide a practical guide for patient management and an overview of the predictive scorings for Fournier's gangrene (FG) that are available to aid clinicians. A literature was performed reviewing currently used scoring systems for FG and presenting a practical guide for its management based on the available evidence. There are four specific scoring systems available for the assessment of FG although few other non-specific and generic tools also exist. These specific tools include Laboratory Risk Indicator for Necrotizing Fasciitis, Fournier's Gangrene Severity Index, Uludag Fournier's Gangrene Severity Index, and Simplified Fournier's Gangrene Severity Index and help calculate expected mortality. Our proposed algorithm covers primary assessment, resuscitative interventions, initial investigations, urgent care, post-operative care, and long-term follow-up. The management of the FG patient can be divided into initial resuscitation, surgical debridement, ongoing ward management with antibiotic therapy, wound reconstruction, and long-term follow-up. Each facet of care is vital and requires multidisciplinary team expertise for optimal outcomes. Whilst mortality continues to improve, it remains significant, reflecting the severe and life-threatening nature of FG. More research is certainly needed into how this care is individualised, and to ensure that long-term outcomes in FG include quality of life measures after discharge.

Fournier's gangrene: a review of predictive scoring systems and practical guide for patient management The management of Fourniers gangrene can be divided into initial resuscitation, surgical debridement, ongoing ward management with antibiotic therapy, wound reconstruction, and long-term follow-up. Each facet of care is vital and requires multidisciplinary team expertise for optimal outcomes. More research is certainly needed into how this care is individualised, and to ensure that long-term outcomes in FG includes quality of life measures after discharge.

Long term outcome after surgical ASD-closure at young age: Longitudinal follow-up up to 50 years after surgery.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the clinical outcome and quality of life up to 50 years after surgical atrial septal defect (ASD) closure at young age. Primary outcome is defined as MACE (all-cause mortality, cardiac re-interventions, ischemic stroke, endocarditis, heart failure and symptomatic arrhythmia). METHODS: Single-center, longitudinal cohort-study evaluating 135 consecutive patients who underwent ASD-closure before the age of 15 years between 1968 and 1980. Participants were invited for extensive cardiac evaluation and assessment of quality-of-life every 10 years. RESULTS: Eighty patients (86%) of 93 eligible survivors were included in this study (mean age 52 ± 5 years (range 41-63), 40% male). Median follow-up since surgery was 45 years (range 40-51). Cumulative survival after 50 years was 86% and comparable to the normal Dutch population. Cumulative event-free survival after 45 and 50-years was 59% and 46% respectively (re-intervention in 6, symptomatic arrhythmia in 25, and pacemaker implantation in 10 patients). Right ventricular ejection fraction on CMR was diminished in 6%. Exercise capacity was normal in 77%. There was no pulmonary hypertension. NT-proBNP was elevated in 61%. Quality of life was comparable with the general population. No predictors for late events were identified. CONCLUSION: Long-term survival after surgical ASD-closure in childhood is good and not statistically different at 50 years compared to the normal Dutch population. Re-intervention rate is low, there is no pulmonary hypertension. Right ventricular function was diminished in 6%, exercise capacity was good and stable over time with quality of life comparable to the general population. However, supraventricular tachycardia is common.

Are Home Evictions Associated with Child Welfare System Involvement? Empirical Evidence from National Eviction Records and Child Protective Services Data.

This study aimed to understand the relationship between home eviction and child welfare system involvement at the county level. Using administrative data, we examined associations of home eviction and eviction filing rates with child abuse and neglect (CAN) reports and foster care entries. We found one additional eviction per 100 renter-occupied homes in a county was associated with a 1.3% increase in the rate of CAN reports and a 1.6% increase in foster care entries. The association between eviction and foster care entries was strongest among Hispanic children with an 8.1% increase. Assisting parents in providing stable housing may reduce the risk of child welfare system involvement, including out-of-home child placement. Primary and secondary prevention strategies could include housing assistance, increasing access to affordable and safe housing, as well as providing economic support for families (e.g., tax credits, childcare subsidies) that reduce parental financial burden to access stable housing.

Prognostic value of left atrial strain in patients with tetralogy of fallot.

To demonstrate prognostic utility of left atrial strain (LAS) in adult patients with repaired Tetralogy of Fallot (rTOF). Adults patients with rTOF were prospectively enrolled in this study between years 2011 and 2015. Left atrium (LA) phasic functions were assessed using 2D speckle tracking echocardiography. Association of LA strain (LAS) with primary (any cardiovascular event) and secondary (death, heart failure or arrhythmia) composite endpoints was assessed using Cox regression analysis. Hundred-and-twelve rTOF patients, in whom LAS was feasible and were in sinus rhythm, were included in the final analysis (age 33 ± 10 years, 68[61%] male). Median duration of follow-up was 8.6 [4.2-9.7] years in the study group. Primary composite endpoint was reached in 48 patients (mean event-free survival time: 7.2 [6.6-7.9] years), and secondary composite endpoint was reached in 22 patients (mean event-free survival time: 8.7 [8.1-9.2] years). LA reservoir strain (LAS-r) was defined as tertile groups (1st tertile < 33%, 2nd tertile = 33-44%, 3rd tertile > 44%). Decreasing tertiles of LAS-r was associated with primary and secondary composite endpoints in Kaplan-Meier analysis (p = 0.02 and 0.002, respectively). In univariable Cox-regression, both decreasing LAS-r and LAS-r tertiles were associated with primary and secondary composite endpoints. Adjusted by initial repair age and NT-proBNP quartiles, increased LAS-r was associated with significantly decreased occurrence of experiencing any events (HR = 0.97, CI 0.93-0.99, p < 0.001). Decreasing LAS-r was still associated with primary endpoint when adjusted by left atrium volume index (LAVImax) (HR = 0.96, CI 0.92-0.99, p = 0.01), left ventricle global longitudinal strain (HR = 0.96, CI 0.93-0.99, p < 0.001) or right ventricle free wall longitudinal strain (HR = 0.96, CI 0.93-0.99, p = 0.03). Assessment of LA mechanics with the use of STE has incremental utility in determination of mortality and morbidity in rTOF, and may be implemented in clinical practice.

Using Transformer-Based Topic Modeling to Examine Discussions of Delta-8 Tetrahydrocannabinol: Content Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Delta-8 tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) is a psychoactive cannabinoid found in small amounts naturally in the cannabis plant; it can also be synthetically produced in larger quantities from hemp-derived cannabidiol. Most states permit the sale of hemp and hemp-derived cannabidiol products; thus, hemp-derived delta-8 THC products have become widely available in many state hemp marketplaces, even where delta-9 THC, the most prominently occurring THC isomer in cannabis, is not currently legal. Health concerns related to the processing of delta-8 THC products and their psychoactive effects remain understudied. OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study is to implement a novel topic modeling approach based on transformers, a state-of-the-art natural language processing architecture, to identify and describe emerging trends and topics of discussion about delta-8 THC from social media discourse, including potential symptoms and adverse health outcomes experienced by people using delta-8 THC products. METHODS: Posts from January 2008 to December 2021 discussing delta-8 THC were isolated from cannabis-related drug forums on Reddit (Reddit Inc), a social media platform that hosts the largest web-based drug forums worldwide. Unsupervised topic modeling with state-of-the-art transformer-based models was used to cluster posts into topics and assign labels describing the kinds of issues being discussed with respect to delta-8 THC. Results were then validated by human subject matter experts. RESULTS: There were 41,191 delta-8 THC posts identified and 81 topics isolated, the most prevalent being (1) discussion of specific brands or products, (2) comparison of delta-8 THC to other hemp-derived cannabinoids, and (3) safety warnings. About 5% (n=1220) of posts from the resulting topics included content discussing health-related symptoms such as anxiety, sleep disturbance, and breathing problems. Until 2020, Reddit posts contained fewer than 10 mentions of delta-8-THC for every 100,000 cannabis posts annually. However, in 2020, these rates increased by 13 times the 2019 rate (to 99.2 mentions per 100,000 cannabis posts) and continued to increase into 2021 (349.5 mentions per 100,000 cannabis posts). CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides insights into emerging public health concerns around delta-8 THC, a novel substance about which little is known. Furthermore, we demonstrate the use of transformer-based unsupervised learning approaches to derive intelligible topics from highly unstructured discussions of delta-8 THC, which may help improve the timeliness of identification of emerging health concerns related to new substances.

Management of Fournier's gangrene: a practical guide for clinicians.

Fournier's gangrene is a localised form of necrotising fasciitis affecting the external genitalia, perineal and perianal regions. Although rare, it is associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality, so clinician awareness is essential for prompt treatment. Risk factors include diabetes mellitus, hypertension, chronic alcoholism and immunosuppression. Perineal pain in patients with sepsis should be treated with a high level of suspicion and early surgical referral is required as prompt debridement can improve outcomes. Repeated surgical intervention and antimicrobial therapy are often needed and recovery can take a long time, with a long-term impact on quality of life. This article discusses the natural history of Fournier's gangrene, aetiology, risk factors, investigations and treatments with an algorithm to support clinical practice.

Recovery from Amblyopia in Adulthood: A Meta-Analysis.

Purpose: The effectiveness of traditional amblyopia therapies is largely restricted to childhood. However, recovery in adulthood is possible following removal or vision-limiting disease of the fellow eye. Study of this phenomenon is currently limited to isolated case reports and a few case series, with reported incidence ranging from 19-77% 1-5 . We set out to accomplish two distinct goals: (1) define the incidence of clinically meaningful recovery and (2) elucidate the clinical features associated with greater amblyopic eye gains. Methods: A systematic review of 3 literature databases yielded 23 reports containing 109 cases of patients ≥18 years old with unilateral amblyopia and vision-limiting fellow eye pathology. Results: Study 1 revealed 25/42 (59.5%) of adult patients gained ≥2 logMAR lines in the amblyopia eye after FE vision loss. The overall degree of improvement is clinically meaningful (median 2.6 logMAR lines). Study 2 showed that for cases with amblyopic eye visual acuity improvement, recovery occurs within 12 months of initial loss of fellow eye vision. Regression analysis revealed that younger age, worse baseline acuity in the amblyopic eye, and worse vision in the fellow eye independently conferred greater gains in amblyopic eye visual acuity. Recovery occurs across amblyopia types and fellow eye pathologies, although disease entities affecting fellow eye retinal ganglion cells demonstrate shorter latencies to recovery. Conclusions: Amblyopia recovery after fellow eye injury demonstrates that the adult brain harbors the neuroplastic capacity for clinically meaningful recovery, which could potentially be harnessed by novel approaches to treat adults with amblyopia.

Potential role of left atrial strain in estimation of left atrial pressure in patients with chronic heart failure.

AIMS: In a large proportion of heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) patients, echocardiographic estimation of left atrial pressure (LAP) is not possible when the ratio of the peak early left ventricular filling velocity over the late filling velocity (E/A ratio) is not available, which may occur due to several potential causes. Left atrial reservoir strain (LASr) is correlated with LV filling pressures and may serve as an alternative parameter in these patients. The aim of this study was to determine whether LASr can be used to estimate LAP in HFrEF patients in whom E/A ratio is not available. METHODS AND RESULTS: Echocardiograms of chronic HFrEF patients were analysed and LASr was assessed with speckle tracking echocardiography. LAP was estimated using the current ASE/EACVI algorithm. Patients were divided into those in whom LAP could be estimated using this algorithm (LAPe) and into those in whom this was not possible because E/A ratio was not available (LAPne). We assessed the prognostic value of LASr on the primary endpoint (PEP), which comprised the composite of hospitalization for the management of acute or worsened HF, left ventricular assist device implantation, cardiac transplantation, and cardiovascular death, whichever occurred first in time. We studied 153 patients with a mean age of 58 years of whom 76% men and 82% who were in NYHA class I-II. A total of 86 were in the LAPe group and 67 in the LAPne group. LASr was significantly lower in the LAPne group as compared with the LAPe group (15.8% vs. 23.8%, P < 0.001). PEP-free survival at a median follow-up of 2.5 years was 78% in LAPe versus 51% in LAPne patients. An increase in LASr was significantly associated with a reduced risk of the PEP in LAPne patients (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.91 per %, 95% confidence interval 0.84-0.98). An abnormal LASr (<18%) was associated with a five-fold increase in reaching the PEP. CONCLUSIONS: In HFrEF patients in whom echocardiographic estimation of LAP is not possible due to due to unavailability of E/A ratio, assessing LASr potentially carries added clinical and prognostic value.

Right ventricular electromechanical dyssynchrony in adults with repaired Tetralogy of Fallot.

Background and purpose: Electromechanical dyssynchrony, manifested by right bundle branch block and regional wall mechanical dysfunction, contributes to inefficient RV function in repaired Tetralogy of Fallot (ToF). This study aims to evaluate the synchronicity of multiple RV walls using two-dimensional multi-plane echocardiography (2D-MPE) in order to augment current understanding of the mechanisms behind RV dyssynchrony. Methods: Sixty-nine adult ToF patients [aged 33 (23-45) years; 61% male] and twenty-five matched healthy controls underwent deformational analysis of the RV lateral, anterior, inferior and septal walls following 2D-MPE acquisitions. RV synchronicity was assessed by the intra-RV deformation delay between each basal RV wall and mid-septal segment in addition to mechanical dispersion calculated across four, six and eight segments (MD). Results: All RV wall-septum delays plus MD-4 and MD-6 indices were significantly greater in ToF patients compared to healthy controls (p < 0.001-0.03). In ToF patients, the lateral and anterior RV walls were last to reach peak deformation and anterior wall longitudinal strain was lower (p = 0.001). Post systolic shortening of at least one RV wall segment was identified in 19 (28%) ToF patients. Despite similar ECG characteristics, lateral and anterior wall-septum delays were significantly longer in patients with greater degrees of dyssynchrony (73 [37-108]ms vs. 37 [0-63]ms, p = 0.006; 91 [52-116]ms vs. 41 [1-69]ms, p = 0.013), although RV ejection fraction (RVEF) was not significantly lower. MD-4 and MD-8 indices displayed moderate negative associations with RVEF, strengthened by inclusion of lateral wall longitudinal strain (r = 0.64/0.65; p ≤0.01). Conclusion: RV dyssynchrony in ToF is characterised by electromechanical delays between the lateral, anterior and septal walls, with anterior wall dysfunction likely associated with surgical repair of the RV outflow tract. Prospectively, 2D-MPE may have an emerging role evaluating RV mechanical response to electrical resynchronisation therapy.

Development of a Machine Learning Model to Estimate US Firearm Homicides in Near Real Time.

Importance: Firearm homicides are a major public health concern; lack of timely mortality data presents considerable challenges to effective response. Near real-time data sources offer potential for more timely estimation of firearm homicides. Objective: To estimate near real-time burden of weekly and annual firearm homicides in the US. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this prognostic study, anonymous, longitudinal time series data were obtained from multiple data sources, including Google and YouTube search trends related to firearms (2014-2019), emergency department visits for firearm injuries (National Syndromic Surveillance Program, 2014-2019), emergency medical service activations for firearm-related injuries (biospatial, 2014-2019), and National Domestic Violence Hotline contacts flagged with the keyword firearm (2016-2019). Data analysis was performed from September 2021 to September 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Weekly estimates of US firearm homicides were calculated using a 2-phase pipeline, first fitting optimal machine learning models for each data stream and then combining the best individual models into a stacked ensemble model. Model accuracy was assessed by comparing predictions of firearm homicides in 2019 to actual firearm homicides identified by National Vital Statistics System death certificates. Results were also compared with a SARIMA (seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average) model, a common method to forecast injury mortality. Results: Both individual and ensemble models yielded highly accurate estimates of firearm homicides. Individual models' mean error for weekly estimates of firearm homicides (root mean square error) varied from 24.95 for emergency department visits to 31.29 for SARIMA forecasting. Ensemble models combining data sources had lower weekly mean error and higher annual accuracy than individual data sources: the all-source ensemble model had a weekly root mean square error of 24.46 deaths and full-year accuracy of 99.74%, predicting the total number of firearm homicides in 2019 within 38 deaths for the entire year (compared with 95.48% accuracy and 652 deaths for the SARIMA model). The model decreased the time lag of reporting weekly firearm homicides from 7 to 8 months to approximately 6 weeks. Conclusions and Relevance: In this prognostic study of diverse secondary data on machine learning, ensemble modeling produced accurate near real-time estimates of weekly and annual firearm homicides and substantially decreased data source time lags. Ensemble model forecasts can accelerate public health practitioners' and policy makers' ability to respond to unanticipated shifts in firearm homicides.

Global outcomes and lessons learned in the management of Fournier's gangrene from high-volume centres: findings from a literature review over the last two decades.

INTRODUCTION: Fournier's Gangrene (FG) carries a high mortality and morbidity with underreported short and long-term outcomes. Our aim was to perform a review of the recent literature to evaluate the short and long-term outcomes in patients with FG in the acute setting from large-scale studies. METHODS: A PubMed search was performed between January 2000 and December 2021 for studies reporting on patients with FG. Exclusion criteria included small samples (n < 100), review articles and animal studies. Primary outcomes of interest were mortality, number of operative episodes for surgical debridement and admission to intensive care unit (ICU). Other outcomes assessed included rate of faecal and urinary diversion, orchidectomy rate, penectomy rate and length of hospital stay. RESULTS: From a total of 1182 studies, 18 were eligible for inclusion and included in this review. In total, data were analysed from 13,903 FG patients. Mean inpatient mortality rate was 7.3% (range 4.7-40.4%). Mean number of surgical debridement operations performed was 1.8 (range 1.5-4.2). On average, 6.8% (range 3.6-50.5%) and 7% (range 1.2-53.2%) underwent faecal and urinary diversions, respectively. Mean rate of orchidectomy was 5.6%, with rate of penectomy being lower at 0.2%. The mean length of hospital stay was 18.5 days (range 13.0-26.6). On average, 17.5% (range 10.1%-67.5%) required ICU admission for at least a single-system support. CONCLUSION: Our review from the past twenty years of literature suggests that the mortality for FG, whilst still high, has fallen compared to previous years. Whilst inpatient metrics are well-covered in the literature there is a lack of large-scale studies detailing long-term patient outcomes.

Prognostic significance of left atrial strain in sarcomere gene variant carriers without hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

BACKGROUND: Genetic testing of relatives of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) patients has led to a large group of genotype-positive, phenotype-negative (G+/Ph-) subjects. Prediction of progression to overt HCM in these subjects is challenging. While left atrial (LA) strain is reduced in HCM patients it is currently unknown whether this parameter can be used to predict HCM phenotype progression. METHODS: This study includes 91 G+/Ph- subjects and 115 controls. Standard echocardiographic parameters as well as left ventricular global longitudinal strain (LV GLS) and LA reservoir strain (LASr) were assessed for each patient. Logistic and Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were used to investigate predictors of G+/Ph- status and HCM during follow-up. RESULTS: Independent predictors of G+ status included pathological Q waves (OR 1.60 [1.15-2.23], p < .01), maximal wall thickness (MWT: OR 1.10 [1.07-1.14], p < .001), mitral inflow E wave (OR 1.06 [1.02-1.10, p = .001), A wave (OR 1.06 [1.03-1.10], p < .001), LV GLS (OR .96 [.94-.98], p < .001), and LASr (OR .99 [.97-.99], p = .03). In univariable Cox regression analysis, male sex (HR 2.78 [1.06-7.29], p = .04), MWT (HR 1.72 [1.14-2.57], p = .009) and posterior wall thickness (HR 1.65 [1.17-2.30], p = .004) predicted HCM during a median follow-up of 5.9 [3.2-8.6] years, whereas LASr did not (HR .95 [.89-1.02], p = .14). There were no significant predictors of HCM after multivariable adjustment. CONCLUSION: LASr is significantly impaired in G+/Ph- subjects and is an independent predictor of G+/Ph- status, but did not predict HCM development during follow-up.

Prognostic value of left atrial strain in patients with congenital aortic stenosis.

Aim: To explore whether left atrial (LA) strain with speckle tracking echocardiography (STE) can contribute to prognostication in patients with congenital aortic stenosis (CAS). Methods and results: In this prospective study, consecutive outpatients with stable CAS and healthy adults were enrolled between 2011 and 2015. Left atrial function was analysed with STE using Tomtec software. Associations between LA strain (LAS) measurements and primary composite outcome (any adverse cardiovascular event, hospitalization, or re-intervention) and secondary outcome (re-interventions) were assessed with Cox regression analysis. In total, 98 patients with CAS (mean age: 35.0 ± 11.9 year, female: 59.2%) and 121 controls (age: 43.9 ± 13.8 year, female: 55.4%) were included. The majority of patients were in NYHA class I: 97 (99%) at baseline. At baseline, LA conduit strain (LAS-cd) and strain rate (LASR-cd) were significantly lower in patients than in controls when corrected for age and sex (-18.1 ± 8.7 vs. -23.5 ± 9.9%, P = 0.001 and -0.73 ± 0.31 vs. -1.02 ± 0.43/s, P < 0.001). During a median follow-up of 6.4 years (5.7-7.1), the primary composite outcome occurred in 48 (39.6%) patients. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that decreased LAS-cd (<21%) was associated with a higher occurrence of the primary outcome (log-rank: P = 0.008). Depressed LAS-cd and LASR-cd were both associated with the primary composite outcome [univariable hazard ratio (HR) = 0.64(0.46-0.88), P = 0.005 and HR = 0.68(0.55-0.83), P < 0.001, respectively]; adjusted HR (for LAS-cd and LASR-cd, respectively): 0.31(0.09-1.04), P = 0.06 and 0.49(0.26-0.89), P = 0.02. Conclusion: Impairment in LA conduit function assessed with STE carries prognostic value in patients with CAS and can be implemented in clinical management.

Estimating Weekly National Opioid Overdose Deaths in Near Real Time Using Multiple Proxy Data Sources.

Importance: Opioid overdose is a leading public health problem in the United States; however, national data on overdose deaths are delayed by several months or more. Objectives: To build and validate a statistical model for estimating national opioid overdose deaths in near real time. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cross-sectional study, signals from 5 overdose-related, proxy data sources encompassing health, law enforcement, and online data from 2014 to 2019 in the US were combined using a LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) regression model, and weekly predictions of opioid overdose deaths were made for 2018 and 2019 to validate model performance. Results were also compared with those from a baseline SARIMA (seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average) model, one of the most used approaches to forecasting injury mortality. Exposures: Time series data from 2014 to 2019 on emergency department visits for opioid overdose from the National Syndromic Surveillance Program, data on the volume of heroin and synthetic opioids circulating in illicit markets via the National Forensic Laboratory Information System, data on the search volume for heroin and synthetic opioids on Google, and data on post volume on heroin and synthetic opioids on Twitter and Reddit were used to train and validate prediction models of opioid overdose deaths. Main Outcomes and Measures: Model-based predictions of weekly opioid overdose deaths in the United States were made for 2018 and 2019 and compared with actual observed opioid overdose deaths from the National Vital Statistics System. Results: Statistical models using the 5 real-time proxy data sources estimated the national opioid overdose death rate for 2018 and 2019 with an error of 1.01% and -1.05%, respectively. When considering the accuracy of weekly predictions, the machine learning-based approach possessed a mean error in its weekly estimates (root mean squared error) of 60.3 overdose deaths for 2018 (compared with 310.2 overdose deaths for the SARIMA model) and 67.2 overdose deaths for 2019 (compared with 83.3 overdose deaths for the SARIMA model). Conclusions and Relevance: Results of this serial cross-sectional study suggest that proxy administrative data sources can be used to estimate national opioid overdose mortality trends to provide a more timely understanding of this public health problem.

Relation Between Early Diastolic Mid-Ventricular Flow and Elastic Forces Indicating Aneurysm Formation in Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy.

BACKGROUND: The early diastolic paradoxical midventricular flow is suggestive of apical aneurysm (AA) formation in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). We aimed to determine whether early diastolic paradoxical midventricular flow may be a useful screening tool in patients, following the time progression of HCM to the aneurysmal stage. METHODS: One hundred twenty-one HCM patients with dominant hypertrophy in the mid and apical segments, based on echocardiography and/or cardiovascular magnetic resonance, were selected from our HCM database, which comprises 1,332 patients. They were further stratified according to the presence of AA. All imaging studies in a period of 16 years (2005-2021) were considered for time progression. Midventricular Doppler (pulsed-wave, continuous-wave, color, and color M mode) were analyzed. RESULTS: Thirty-five patients (29% of the study group and 2.6% of all HCM patients) had AA. Early diastolic paradoxical midventricular flow had a sensitivity of 92% and specificity of 98.6% for the detection of AA in the study group. In 108 patients, follow-up echocardiography was performed (median, 5 [3-9] studies). Sixteen patients (15%) with 10 [7-12] years of follow-up displayed progressive time changes in left ventricle (LV) apical morphology and/or mid-LV flow. Ten patients (9%) progressed to an AA, during 7 [4-11] years of follow-up. Patients progressing to AA were younger (P = .009), with more severe LV hypertrophy (P = .01) and more often a significant mid-LV systolic gradient (≥30 mm Hg, P < .001). A wall thickness over 20 mm had 70% sensitivity and 69% specificity in detecting evolution toward AA. With significant systolic gradient, sensitivity was 80% and specificity was 62%. Furthermore, patients with AA had a higher incidence of ventricular tachycardia (log-rank P = .03). CONCLUSIONS: Early diastolic paradoxical midventricular flow reliably detects AA presence and should prompt extra imaging studies. In HCM with mid and apical dominant involvement there is a progressive trend toward aneurysm formation, especially in patients with wall thickness over 20 mm and significant mid-LV systolic gradient (≥30 mm Hg), which can be monitored through serial Doppler studies.

Left ventricular high frame rate echo-particle image velocimetry: clinical application and comparison with conventional imaging.

BACKGROUND: Echo-Particle Image Velocimetry (echoPIV) tracks speckle patterns from ultrasound contrast agent(UCA), being less angle-sensitive than colour Doppler. High frame rate (HFR) echoPIV enables tracking of high velocity flow in the left ventricle (LV). We aimed to demonstrate the potential clinical use of HFR echoPIV and investigate the feasibility and accuracy in patients. METHODS: Nineteen patients admitted for heart failure were included. HFR contrast images were acquired from an apical long axis view (ALAX), using a fully-programmable ultrasound system. A clinical UCA was continuously infused with a dedicated pump. Additionally, echocardiographic images were obtained using a clinical system, including LV contrast-enhanced images and pulsed-wave (PW) Doppler of the LV inflow and outflow in ALAX. 11 patients underwent CMR and 4 cardiac CT as clinically indicated. These CMR and CT images were used as reference. In 10 patients with good echoPIV tracking and reference imaging, the intracavitary flow was compared between echoPIV, conventional and UCA echocardiography. RESULTS: EchoPIV tracking quality was good in 12/19 (63%), moderate in 2/19 (10%) and poor in 5/19 (26%) subjects. EchoPIV could determine inflow velocity in 17/19 (89%), and outflow in 14/19 (74%) patients. The correlation of echoPIV and PW Doppler was good for the inflow (R2 = 0.77 to PW peak; R2 = 0.80 PW mean velocity) and moderate for the outflow (R2 = 0.54 to PW peak; R2 = 0.44 to PW mean velocity), with a tendency for echoPIV to underestimate PW velocities. In selected patients, echoPIV was able in a single acquisition to demonstrate flow patterns which required multiple interrogations with classical echocardiography. Those flow patterns could also be linked to anatomical abnormalities as seen in CMR or CT. CONCLUSION: HFR echoPIV tracks multidirectional and complex flow patterns which are unapparent with conventional echocardiography, while having comparable feasibility. EchoPIV tends to underestimate flow velocities as compared to PW Doppler. It has the potential to provide in one acquisition all the functional information obtained by conventional imaging, overcoming the angle dependency of Doppler and low frame rate of classical contrast imaging.

Using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Syndromic Surveillance Program Data to Monitor Trends in US Emergency Department Visits for Firearm Injuries, 2018 to 2019.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: We describe trends in emergency department (ED) visits for initial firearm injury encounters in the United States. METHODS: Using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Syndromic Surveillance Program, we analyzed monthly and yearly trends in ED visit rates involving a firearm injury (calculated as the number of firearm injury-related ED visits divided by the total number of ED visits for each month and multiplied by 100,000) by sex-specific age group and US region from 2018 to 2019 and conducted Joinpoint regression to detect trend significance. RESULTS: Among approximately 215 million ED visits captured in the National Syndromic Surveillance Program from January 2018 to December 2019, 132,767 involved a firearm injury (61.6 per 100,000 ED visits). Among males, rates of firearm injury-related ED visits significantly increased for all age groups between 15 and 64 years during the study period. Among females, rates of firearm injury-related ED visits significantly increased for all age groups between 15 and 54 years during the study period. By region, rates significantly changed in the northeast, southeast, and southwest for males and females during the study period. CONCLUSION: These analyses highlight a novel data source for monitoring trends in ED visits for firearm injuries. With increased and effective use of state and local syndromic surveillance data, in addition to improvements to firearm injury syndrome definitions by intent, public health professionals could better detect unusual patterns of firearm injuries across the United States for improved prevention and tailored response efforts.

Lesiones de punta de dedo: experiencia en el manejo en los últimos 5 años en un centro pediátrico / Fingertip injuries: experience in handling the last 5 years in a pediatric center

Las lesiones de punta de dedo son comunes en pacientes pediátricos que acuden a salas de Emergencia; son causadas por accidentes en el hogar y con aplastamiento en puerta como principal mecanismo de trauma. El tratamiento se realiza individualizado por cirujanos plásticos y cirujanos pediátricos en dependencia de la herida y el compromiso tisular. El propósito de este estudio es describir el manejo de pacientes con lesiones de punta de dedo en un centro pediátrico. Se realizó un análisis de historias clínicas en el período entre enero 2015 y diciembre 2020, se evaluaron 228 pacientes atendidos en el Hospital de Niños Dr. Roberto Gilbert Elizalde, en Guayaquil, Ecuador. Los resultados incluyen un predominio de pacientes en edad preescolar (67%), masculinos (56%) y de mano derecha (53%). Los dedos más afectados fueron el medio y anular. Los procedimientos fueron realizados por cirujanos plásticos (55%) y la técnica electiva fue bajo anestesia general. La extensión del daño involucró tejidos blandos (92%), avulsión de uña (29%) y fracturas asociadas (15%). El 3% de los pacientes presentó complicaciones que requirieron seguimiento. El tipo de reparo se seleccionó en dependencia de la extensión de la herida, se realizaron suturas simples (37%) y suturas complejas con reparo de la uña (27%). Nuestros datos son similares a los descritos en la literatura internacional, con buenos resultados a largo plazo, menor tasa de complicaciones y respuestas similares en los reparos realizados por cirujanos plásticos y cirujanos pediatras.

Fingertip injuries are common in pediatric patients who present to the emergency room. They are usually caused by accidents at home, being door-crush the main mechanism. Treatment is performed on an individual basis, by a Plastic or General Pediatric Surgeon, according to the wound findings and tissue involvement. The purpose of this study is to describe the management on a pediatric center in patients with a fingertip wound. A descriptive and retrospective analysis of medical records was carried out from January 2015 until December 2020. In this period 228 patients were seen in the Dr. Roberto Gilbert Elizalde Children´s Hospital in Guayaquil, Ecuador. A high incidence was found in the preschool age with 67% of cases. The injuries were more common in males (56 %) and more predominant on the right hand (53%). The most affected fingers were the middle and annular. Procedures were mostly performed by Pediatric Surgeons (55%) and the elective technique was under general anesthesia. Damage extension of the fingertip included soft tissues in 92% of patients, nail avulsion in 29% and associated fractures in 15%. Only 3% of patients developed complications that required follow up. The type of repair was selected according to the extension of the injury. Mostly simple sutures (37%) and complex sutures with nail repair (27%)were used.Our data is similar to the one found in international literature, with good long-term outcomes, minor complications and similar results when the repair was performed by a Plastic or Pediatric surgeon