Fertility trends, excess mortality, and the Great Irish Famine.

This paper has developed estimates of the age-specific mortality rates prevailing during the Great Irish Famine and has analyzed fertility trends during the 25 years before the Famine. Our calculations confirm that 1 million Irish people perished as a result of this disaster. This figure does not include the deaths among the 1.3 million emigrants who left Ireland during the Famine period. The Famine produced a significant drop in the fertility rate, and we estimate that more than 300,000 births did not take place as a result of the Famine. The effects were especially severe on the very young and the very old, a result echoed in the findings of demographic analyses of other famines. Our procedure permits a reconstruction of the Irish population by age and sex during the period 1821-1841. In addition, it yields year-by-year estimates of the birth rate over this period. We estimate that the rate fell by about 14 percent, a result robust to our assumptions regarding emigration. Economic historians have debated this issue, and we hope that our evidence, although preliminary, will be of assistance. Our analysis also permits year-by-year reconstruction of Irish population totals for the period 1821-1851. Two years are of particular interest. Virtually all recent writers, with the notable exception of Lee (1981), have suggested that the 1831 census returns overestimated the actual population resident in Ireland at that date. Our reconstruction supports the validity of the 1831 census figure. We obtain a total of 7,847,000, which is in good agreement with the disputed census figure of 7,767,000. But perhaps the most interesting figure is the population total for the end of 1845, the highest ever achieved in Ireland. We estimate that the population on the eve of the Great Famine was 8,525,000. Throughout the paper we have tried to highlight those areas in which the data are unreliable, unavailable, or distorted. We have tried to devise cross-checks for consistency and to test the sensitivity of the results to a range of assumptions. A case in point concerns the age-sex profile and volume of emigration to England, Scotland, and Wales. Additional work at the micro level would be helpful here. More solid evidence on Famine births would also be helpful. The parish registers we have sampled certainly provide a clue to trends, but we have only made a start in that respect. A much more comprehensive survey is needed to convey the national picture.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)

Population waves and fertility fluctuations: social security implications.

PIP: Based on Canadian data, this study discusses some of the methods which incorporate fertility variations into population forecasts. In particular, the relative shifts in the age structure which can have profound social and economic consequences on the context of a pay as you go national security system are analyzed. In terms of long range economic and social planning, oscillating growth projections are much more difficult to handle and plan for than the constant growth rates predicted by stable population theories. The impact of different types of fertility fluctuations are analyzed in terms of evolution of the dependency ration over time; the dependency ratio corresponds to the ratio of the retired lives of a population to those of the working age population. From the viewpoint of a social security system, the evolution of the dependency ratio over time is of particular importance. Other areas explored are: 1) cohort fertility variations; 2) periodic fertility fluctuations; and 3) limit cycle behaviors. In the context of a national social security plan, one possible response to the population projections would be to maintain the year by year level of the RA ratio (ratio of the population aged 65 and over to the population aged between 20 and 65) at its equilibrium value of 27.6% by adjusting the retirement age appropriately.^ieng

Rapid progression of oxalosis-induced cardiomyopathy despite adequate haemodialysis.

Crystals of calcium oxalate (CaC2O4) were found at autopsy in the heart of a patient who, over a period of 11 months, appeared to receive adequate haemodialysis and yet died of rapidly progressive heart failure. Calcium oxalate crystals were not present in the kidneys which had been removed at the time of commencing haemodialysis. No secondary cause of oxalosis was evident. X-ray fluorescence analysis of the heart tissue revealed, as well as large amounts of calcium, excess strontium and markedly reduced amounts of potassium and rubidium.

Monitoring mortality: a state-space approach.

"A state-space model is developed which provides estimates of decrements in a dynamic environment. The model integrates the actual unfolding experience and a priori or Bayesian views of the rates. The estimates of present rates and predicted future rates are continually updated and associated standard errors have simple expressions. The model is described and applied in the context of mortality estimation but it should prove useful in other actuarial applications. The approach is particularly suitable for dynamic environments where data are scarce and updated parameter estimates are required on a regular basis. To illustrate the method it is used to monitor the unfolding mortality experience of the retired lives under an actual pension plan."