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1.
JMIR Public Health Surveill ; 8(2): e28268, 2022 02 22.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35191852

BACKGROUND: Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for influenza used by individuals at home could potentially expand access to testing and reduce the impact of influenza on health systems. Improving access to testing could lead to earlier diagnosis following symptom onset, allowing more rapid interventions for those who test positive, including behavioral changes to minimize spread. However, the accuracy of RDTs for influenza has not been determined in self-testing populations. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to assess the accuracy of an influenza RDT conducted at home by lay users with acute respiratory illness compared with that of a self-collected sample by the same individual mailed to a laboratory for reference testing. METHODS: We conducted a comparative accuracy study of an at-home influenza RDT (Ellume) in a convenience sample of individuals experiencing acute respiratory illness symptoms. Participants were enrolled in February and March 2020 from the Greater Seattle region in Washington, United States. Participants were mailed the influenza RDT and reference sample collection materials, which they completed and returned for quantitative reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction influenza testing in a central laboratory. We explored the impact of age, influenza type, duration, and severity of symptoms on RDT accuracy and on cycle threshold for influenza virus and ribonuclease P, a marker of human DNA. RESULTS: A total of 605 participants completed all study steps and were included in our analysis, of whom 87 (14.4%) tested positive for influenza by quantitative reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (70/87, 80% for influenza A and 17/87, 20% for influenza B). The overall sensitivity and specificity of the RDT compared with the reference test were 61% (95% CI 50%-71%) and 95% (95% CI 93%-97%), respectively. Among individuals with symptom onset ≤72 hours, sensitivity was 63% (95% CI 48%-76%) and specificity was 94% (95% CI 91%-97%), whereas, for those with duration >72 hours, sensitivity and specificity were 58% (95% CI 41%-74%) and 96% (95% CI 93%-98%), respectively. Viral load on reference swabs was negatively correlated with symptom onset, and quantities of the endogenous marker gene ribonuclease P did not differ among reference standard positive and negative groups, age groups, or influenza subtypes. The RDT did not have higher sensitivity or specificity among those who reported more severe illnesses. CONCLUSIONS: The sensitivity and specificity of the self-test were comparable with those of influenza RDTs used in clinical settings. False-negative self-test results were more common when the test was used after 72 hours of symptom onset but were not related to inadequate swab collection or severity of illness. Therefore, the deployment of home tests may provide a valuable tool to support the management of influenza and other respiratory infections.


Influenza, Human , Humans , Influenza, Human/diagnosis , Prospective Studies , Ribonuclease P , Self-Testing , Sensitivity and Specificity
2.
Clin Chem ; 68(1): 143-152, 2021 12 30.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34286830

BACKGROUND: The urgent need for massively scaled clinical testing for SARS-CoV-2, along with global shortages of critical reagents and supplies, has necessitated development of streamlined laboratory testing protocols. Conventional nucleic acid testing for SARS-CoV-2 involves collection of a clinical specimen with a nasopharyngeal swab in transport medium, nucleic acid extraction, and quantitative reverse-transcription PCR (RT-qPCR). As testing has scaled across the world, the global supply chain has buckled, rendering testing reagents and materials scarce. To address shortages, we developed SwabExpress, an end-to-end protocol developed to employ mass produced anterior nares swabs and bypass the requirement for transport media and nucleic acid extraction. METHODS: We evaluated anterior nares swabs, transported dry and eluted in low-TE buffer as a direct-to-RT-qPCR alternative to extraction-dependent viral transport media. We validated our protocol of using heat treatment for viral inactivation and added a proteinase K digestion step to reduce amplification interference. We tested this protocol across archived and prospectively collected swab specimens to fine-tune test performance. RESULTS: After optimization, SwabExpress has a low limit of detection at 2-4 molecules/µL, 100% sensitivity, and 99.4% specificity when compared side by side with a traditional RT-qPCR protocol employing extraction. On real-world specimens, SwabExpress outperforms an automated extraction system while simultaneously reducing cost and hands-on time. CONCLUSION: SwabExpress is a simplified workflow that facilitates scaled testing for COVID-19 without sacrificing test performance. It may serve as a template for the simplification of PCR-based clinical laboratory tests, particularly in times of critical shortages during pandemics.


COVID-19 Nucleic Acid Testing/methods , COVID-19 , COVID-19/diagnosis , Clinical Laboratory Techniques , Humans , RNA, Viral/isolation & purification , Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Sensitivity and Specificity , Specimen Handling
3.
JAMA Pediatr ; 175(10): e212025, 2021 10 01.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34115094

Importance: The association between COVID-19 symptoms and SARS-CoV-2 viral levels in children living in the community is not well understood. Objective: To characterize symptoms of pediatric COVID-19 in the community and analyze the association between symptoms and SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels, as approximated by cycle threshold (Ct) values, in children and adults. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used a respiratory virus surveillance platform in persons of all ages to detect community COVID-19 cases from March 23 to November 9, 2020. A population-based convenience sample of children younger than 18 years and adults in King County, Washington, who enrolled online for home self-collection of upper respiratory samples for SARS-CoV-2 testing were included. Exposures: Detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) from participant-collected samples. Main Outcomes and Measures: RT-PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, with Ct values stratified by age and symptoms. Results: Among 555 SARS-CoV-2-positive participants (mean [SD] age, 33.7 [20.1] years; 320 were female [57.7%]), 47 of 123 children (38.2%) were asymptomatic compared with 31 of 432 adults (7.2%). When symptomatic, fewer symptoms were reported in children compared with adults (mean [SD], 1.6 [2.0] vs 4.5 [3.1]). Symptomatic individuals had lower Ct values (which corresponded to higher viral RNA levels) than asymptomatic individuals (adjusted estimate for children, -3.0; 95% CI, -5.5 to -0.6; P = .02; adjusted estimate for adults, -2.9; 95% CI, -5.2 to -0.6; P = .01). The difference in mean Ct values was neither statistically significant between symptomatic children and symptomatic adults (adjusted estimate, -0.7; 95% CI, -2.2 to 0.9; P = .41) nor between asymptomatic children and asymptomatic adults (adjusted estimate, -0.6; 95% CI, -4.0 to 2.8; P = .74). Conclusions and Relevance: In this community-based cross-sectional study, SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels, as determined by Ct values, were significantly higher in symptomatic individuals than in asymptomatic individuals and no significant age-related differences were found. Further research is needed to understand the role of SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels and viral transmission.


COVID-19/complications , COVID-19/diagnosis , RNA, Viral/metabolism , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Viral Load , Adolescent , Adult , Age Factors , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19 Nucleic Acid Testing , Child , Child, Preschool , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , Humans , Infant , Male , Middle Aged , Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction , Symptom Assessment , Washington , Young Adult
4.
Sci Transl Med ; 13(595)2021 05 26.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33941621

The rapid spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has gravely affected societies around the world. Outbreaks in different parts of the globe have been shaped by repeated introductions of new viral lineages and subsequent local transmission of those lineages. Here, we sequenced 3940 SARS-CoV-2 viral genomes from Washington State (USA) to characterize how the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Washington State in early 2020 was shaped by differences in timing of mitigation strategies across counties and by repeated introductions of viral lineages into the state. In addition, we show that the increase in frequency of a potentially more transmissible viral variant (614G) over time can potentially be explained by regional mobility differences and multiple introductions of 614G but not the other variant (614D) into the state. At an individual level, we observed evidence of higher viral loads in patients infected with the 614G variant. However, using clinical records data, we did not find any evidence that the 614G variant affects clinical severity or patient outcomes. Overall, this suggests that with regard to D614G, the behavior of individuals has been more important in shaping the course of the pandemic in Washington State than this variant of the virus.


COVID-19 , Genome, Viral , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/virology , Disease Outbreaks , Humans , Phylogeny , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , Washington/epidemiology
5.
Influenza Other Respir Viruses ; 15(4): 469-477, 2021 07.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33939275

BACKGROUND: Households represent important settings for transmission of influenza and other respiratory viruses. Current influenza diagnosis and treatment relies upon patient visits to healthcare facilities, which may lead to under-diagnosis and treatment delays. This study aimed to assess the feasibility of an at-home approach to influenza diagnosis and treatment via home testing, telehealth care, and rapid antiviral home delivery. METHODS: We conducted a pilot interventional study of remote influenza diagnosis and treatment in Seattle-area households with children during the 2019-2020 influenza season using pre-positioned nasal swabs and home influenza tests. Home monitoring for respiratory symptoms occurred weekly; if symptoms were reported within 48 hours of onset, participants collected mid-nasal swabs and used a rapid home-based influenza immunoassay. An additional home-collected swab was returned to a laboratory for confirmatory influenza RT-PCR testing. Baloxavir antiviral treatment was prescribed and delivered to symptomatic and age-eligible participants, following a telehealth encounter. RESULTS: 124 households comprising 481 individuals self-monitored for respiratory symptoms, with 58 home tests administered. 12 home tests were positive for influenza, of which eight were true positives confirmed by RT-PCR. The sensitivity and specificity of the home influenza test were 72.7% and 96.2%, respectively. There were eight home deliveries of baloxavir, with 7 (87.5%) occurring within 3 hours of prescription and all within 48 hours of symptom onset. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate the feasibility of self-testing combined with rapid home delivery of influenza antiviral treatment. This approach may be an important control strategy for influenza epidemics and pandemics.


Influenza, Human , Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use , Child , Humans , Influenza, Human/diagnosis , Influenza, Human/drug therapy , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Pandemics , Self-Testing , Sensitivity and Specificity
6.
BMC Infect Dis ; 21(1): 335, 2021 Apr 09.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33836685

BACKGROUND: Unusually high snowfall in western Washington State in February 2019 led to widespread school and workplace closures. We assessed the impact of social distancing caused by this extreme weather event on the transmission of respiratory viruses. METHODS: Residual specimens from patients evaluated for acute respiratory illness at hospitals in the Seattle metropolitan area were screened for a panel of respiratory viruses. Transmission models were fit to each virus to estimate the magnitude reduction in transmission due to weather-related disruptions. Changes in contact rates and care-seeking were informed by data on local traffic volumes and hospital visits. RESULTS: Disruption in contact patterns reduced effective contact rates during the intervention period by 16 to 95%, and cumulative disease incidence through the remainder of the season by 3 to 9%. Incidence reductions were greatest for viruses that were peaking when the disruption occurred and least for viruses in an early epidemic phase. CONCLUSION: High-intensity, short-duration social distancing measures may substantially reduce total incidence in a respiratory virus epidemic if implemented near the epidemic peak. For SARS-CoV-2, this suggests that, even when SARS-CoV-2 spread is out of control, implementing short-term disruptions can prevent COVID-19 deaths.


Epidemics/prevention & control , Physical Distancing , Respiratory Tract Infections/transmission , Respiratory Tract Infections/virology , Weather , COVID-19 , Cities , Humans , Incidence , Models, Theoretical , Retrospective Studies , Washington
7.
J Clin Microbiol ; 59(5)2021 04 20.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33563599

While influenza and other respiratory pathogens cause significant morbidity and mortality, the community-based burden of these infections remains incompletely understood. The development of novel methods to detect respiratory infections is essential for mitigating epidemics and developing pandemic-preparedness infrastructure. From October 2019 to March 2020, we conducted a home-based cross-sectional study in the greater Seattle, WA, area, utilizing electronic consent and data collection instruments. Participants received nasal swab collection kits via rapid delivery within 24 hours of self-reporting respiratory symptoms. Samples were returned to the laboratory and were screened for 26 respiratory pathogens and a housekeeping gene. Participant data were recorded via online survey at the time of sample collection and 1 week later. Of the 4,572 consented participants, 4,359 (95.3%) received a home swab kit and 3,648 (83.7%) returned a nasal specimen for respiratory pathogen screening. The 3,638 testable samples had a mean RNase P relative cycle threshold (Crt ) value of 19.0 (SD, 3.4), and 1,232 (33.9%) samples had positive results for one or more pathogens, including 645 (17.7%) influenza-positive specimens. Among the testable samples, the median time between shipment of the home swab kit and completion of laboratory testing was 8.0 days (interquartile range [IQR], 7.0 to 14.0). A single adverse event occurred and did not cause long-term effects or require medical attention. Home-based surveillance using online participant enrollment and specimen self-collection is a safe and feasible method for community-level monitoring of influenza and other respiratory pathogens, which can readily be adapted for use during pandemics.


Influenza, Human , Respiratory Tract Infections , Cross-Sectional Studies , Humans , Influenza, Human/diagnosis , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Pandemics , Respiratory Tract Infections/diagnosis , Respiratory Tract Infections/epidemiology , Specimen Handling
9.
bioRxiv ; 2021 Apr 29.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32511368

BACKGROUND: The urgent need for massively scaled clinical testing for SARS-CoV-2, along with global shortages of critical reagents and supplies, has necessitated development of streamlined laboratory testing protocols. Conventional nucleic acid testing for SARS-CoV-2 involves collection of a clinical specimen with a nasopharyngeal swab in transport medium, nucleic acid extraction, and quantitative reverse transcription PCR (RT-qPCR) (1). As testing has scaled across the world, the global supply chain has buckled, rendering testing reagents and materials scarce (2). To address shortages, we developed SwabExpress, an end-to-end protocol developed to employ mass produced anterior nares swabs and bypass the requirement for transport media and nucleic acid extraction. METHODS: We evaluated anterior nares swabs, transported dry and eluted in low-TE buffer as a direct-to-RT-qPCR alternative to extraction-dependent viral transport media. We validated our protocol of using heat treatment for viral activation and added a proteinase K digestion step to reduce amplification interference. We tested this protocol across archived and prospectively collected swab specimens to fine-tune test performance. RESULTS: After optimization, SwabExpress has a low limit of detection at 2-4 molecules/uL, 100% sensitivity, and 99.4% specificity when compared side-by-side with a traditional RT-qPCR protocol employing extraction. On real-world specimens, SwabExpress outperforms an automated extraction system while simultaneously reducing cost and hands-on time. CONCLUSION: SwabExpress is a simplified workflow that facilitates scaled testing for COVID-19 without sacrificing test performance. It may serve as a template for the simplification of PCR-based clinical laboratory tests, particularly in times of critical shortages during pandemics.

10.
Ann Intern Med ; 174(1): 42-49, 2021 01.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32931328

BACKGROUND: Homeless shelters are a high-risk setting for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission because of crowding and shared hygiene facilities. OBJECTIVE: To investigate SARS-CoV-2 case counts across several adult and family homeless shelters in a major metropolitan area. DESIGN: Cross-sectional, community-based surveillance study. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04141917). SETTING: 14 homeless shelters in King County, Washington. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1434 study encounters were done in shelter residents and staff, regardless of symptoms. INTERVENTION: 2 strategies were used for SARS-CoV-2 testing: routine surveillance and contact tracing ("surge testing") events. MEASUREMENTS: The primary outcome measure was test positivity rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection at shelters, determined by dividing the number of positive cases by the total number of participant encounters, regardless of symptoms. Sociodemographic, clinical, and virologic variables were assessed as correlates of viral positivity. RESULTS: Among 1434 encounters, 29 (2% [95% CI, 1.4% to 2.9%]) cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection were detected across 5 shelters. Most (n = 21 [72.4%]) were detected during surge testing events rather than routine surveillance, and most (n = 21 [72.4% {CI, 52.8% to 87.3%}]) were asymptomatic at the time of sample collection. Persons who were positive for SARS-CoV-2 were more frequently aged 60 years or older than those without SARS-CoV-2 (44.8% vs. 15.9%). Eighty-six percent of persons with positive test results slept in a communal space rather than in a private or shared room. LIMITATION: Selection bias due to voluntary participation and a relatively small case count. CONCLUSION: Active surveillance and surge testing were used to detect multiple cases of asymptomatic and symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in homeless shelters. The findings suggest an unmet need for routine viral testing outside of clinical settings for homeless populations. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Gates Ventures.


COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/transmission , Ill-Housed Persons , Adolescent , Adult , Child , Contact Tracing , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Population Surveillance , SARS-CoV-2 , Washington/epidemiology
11.
Clin Infect Dis ; 73(11): e4411-e4418, 2021 12 06.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33197930

BACKGROUND: Noninfluenza respiratory viruses are responsible for a substantial burden of disease in the United States. Household transmission is thought to contribute significantly to subsequent transmission through the broader community. In the context of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, contactless surveillance methods are of particular importance. METHODS: From November 2019 to April 2020, 303 households in the Seattle area were remotely monitored in a prospective longitudinal study for symptoms of respiratory viral illness. Enrolled participants reported weekly symptoms and submitted respiratory samples by mail in the event of an acute respiratory illness (ARI). Specimens were tested for 14 viruses, including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), using reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction. Participants completed all study procedures at home without physical contact with research staff. RESULTS: In total, 1171 unique participants in 303 households were monitored for ARI. Of participating households, 128 (42%) included a child aged <5 years and 202 (67%) included a child aged 5-12 years. Of the 678 swabs collected during the surveillance period, 237 (35%) tested positive for 1 or more noninfluenza respiratory viruses. Rhinovirus, common human coronaviruses, and respiratory syncytial virus were the most common. Four cases of SARS-CoV-2 were detected in 3 households. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the circulation of respiratory viruses within households during the winter months during the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Contactless methods of recruitment, enrollment, and sample collection were utilized throughout this study and demonstrate the feasibility of home-based, remote monitoring for respiratory infections.


COVID-19 , Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Human , Respiratory Tract Infections , Viruses , Child , Humans , Longitudinal Studies , Prospective Studies , Respiratory Tract Infections/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2
12.
medRxiv ; 2020 Dec 08.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33330895

Unsupervised upper respiratory specimen collection is a key factor in the ability to massively scale SARS-CoV-2 testing. But there is concern that unsupervised specimen collection may produce inferior samples. Across two studies that included unsupervised at-home mid-turbinate specimen collection, ~1% of participants used the wrong end of the swab. We found that molecular detection of respiratory pathogens and a human biomarker were comparable between specimens collected from the handle of the swab and those collected correctly. Older participants were more likely to use the swab backwards. Our results suggest that errors made during home-collection of nasal specimens do not preclude molecular detection of pathogens and specialized swabs may be an unnecessary luxury during a pandemic.

13.
medRxiv ; 2020 Sep 30.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33024981

The rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 has gravely impacted societies around the world. Outbreaks in different parts of the globe are shaped by repeated introductions of new lineages and subsequent local transmission of those lineages. Here, we sequenced 3940 SARS-CoV-2 viral genomes from Washington State to characterize how the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Washington State (USA) was shaped by differences in timing of mitigation strategies across counties, as well as by repeated introductions of viral lineages into the state. Additionally, we show that the increase in frequency of a potentially more transmissible viral variant (614G) over time can potentially be explained by regional mobility differences and multiple introductions of 614G, but not the other variant (614D) into the state. At an individual level, we see evidence of higher viral loads in patients infected with the 614G variant. However, using clinical records data, we do not find any evidence that the 614G variant impacts clinical severity or patient outcomes. Overall, this suggests that at least to date, the behavior of individuals has been more important in shaping the course of the pandemic than changes in the virus.

14.
BMJ Open ; 10(10): e037295, 2020 10 07.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33033018

INTRODUCTION: Influenza epidemics and pandemics cause significant morbidity and mortality. An effective response to a potential pandemic requires the infrastructure to rapidly detect, characterise, and potentially contain new and emerging influenza strains at both an individual and population level. The objective of this study is to use data gathered simultaneously from community and hospital sites to develop a model of how influenza enters and spreads in a population. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Starting in the 2018-2019 season, we have been enrolling individuals with acute respiratory illness from community sites throughout the Seattle metropolitan area, including clinics, childcare facilities, Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, workplaces, college campuses and homeless shelters. At these sites, we collect clinical data and mid-nasal swabs from individuals with at least two acute respiratory symptoms. Additionally, we collect residual nasal swabs and data from individuals who seek care for respiratory symptoms at four regional hospitals. Samples are tested using a multiplex molecular assay, and influenza whole genome sequencing is performed for samples with influenza detected. Geospatial mapping and computational modelling platforms are in development to characterise the regional spread of influenza and other respiratory pathogens. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was approved by the University of Washington's Institutional Review Board (STUDY00006181). Results will be disseminated through talks at conferences, peer-reviewed publications and on the study website (www.seattleflu.org).


Influenza, Human , Genomics , Humans , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Prevalence , Prospective Studies , Seasons
15.
J Gen Intern Med ; 35(11): 3302-3307, 2020 11.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32875494

BACKGROUND: Skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) are high-risk settings for SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Infection rates among employees are infrequently described. OBJECTIVE: To describe SARS-CoV-2 rates among SNF employees and residents during a non-outbreak time period, we measured cross-sectional SARS-CoV-2 prevalence across multiple sites in the Seattle area. DESIGN: SARS-CoV-2 testing was performed for SNF employees and residents using quantitative real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. A subset of employees completed a sociodemographic and symptom questionnaire. PARTICIPANTS: Between March 29 and May 13, 2020, we tested 1583 employees and 1208 residents at 16 SNFs for SARS-CoV-2. MAIN MEASURE: SARS-CoV-2 testing results and symptom report among employees and residents. KEY RESULTS: Eleven of the 16 SNFs had one or more resident or employee test positive. Overall, 46 (2.9%) employees had positive or inconclusive testing for SARS-CoV-2, and among those who completed surveys, most were asymptomatic and involved in direct patient care. The majority of employees tested were female (934, 73%), and most employees were Asian (392, 30%), Black (360, 28%), or white (360, 28%). Among the 1208 residents tested, 110 (9.1%) had positive or inconclusive results. There was no association between the presence of positive residents and positive employees within a SNF (p = 0.62, McNemar's test). CONCLUSIONS: In the largest study of SNFs to date, SARS-CoV-2 infections were detected among both employees and residents. Employees testing positive were often asymptomatic and involved in direct patient care. Surveillance testing is needed for SNF employees and residents during the pandemic response.


COVID-19 Testing/methods , COVID-19/epidemiology , Health Personnel/statistics & numerical data , Skilled Nursing Facilities/statistics & numerical data , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19 Testing/statistics & numerical data , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Occupational Diseases/epidemiology , Prevalence , SARS-CoV-2 , Skilled Nursing Facilities/organization & administration , Surveys and Questionnaires , Washington/epidemiology , Young Adult
16.
Science ; 370(6516): 571-575, 2020 10 30.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32913002

After its emergence in Wuhan, China, in late November or early December 2019, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus rapidly spread globally. Genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 allows the reconstruction of its transmission history, although this is contingent on sampling. We analyzed 453 SARS-CoV-2 genomes collected between 20 February and 15 March 2020 from infected patients in Washington state in the United States. We find that most SARS-CoV-2 infections sampled during this time derive from a single introduction in late January or early February 2020, which subsequently spread locally before active community surveillance was implemented.


Betacoronavirus/genetics , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/transmission , Genome, Viral , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/transmission , Bayes Theorem , COVID-19 , Humans , Likelihood Functions , Pandemics , Phylogeny , SARS-CoV-2 , Washington/epidemiology
17.
medRxiv ; 2020 Apr 06.
Article En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32511596

Following its emergence in Wuhan, China, in late November or early December 2019, the SARS-CoV-2 virus has rapidly spread throughout the world. On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) a pandemic. Genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 strains allows for the reconstruction of transmission history connecting these infections. Here, we analyze 346 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from samples collected between 20 February and 15 March 2020 from infected patients in Washington State, USA. We found that the large majority of SARS-CoV-2 infections sampled during this time frame appeared to have derived from a single introduction event into the state in late January or early February 2020 and subsequent local spread, strongly suggesting cryptic spread of COVID-19 during the months of January and February 2020, before active community surveillance was implemented. We estimate a common ancestor of this outbreak clade as occurring between 18 January and 9 February 2020. From genomic data, we estimate an exponential doubling between 2.4 and 5.1 days. These results highlight the need for large-scale community surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 introductions and spread and the power of pathogen genomics to inform epidemiological understanding.

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