Predicción espacio-temporal probabilista de la epidemia de dengue total y grave en Colombia / Probabilistic spatial-temporal prediction of total and severe epidemic of dengue in Colombia / Previsão probabilística espaço-temporal da epidemia de dengue total e grave na Colômbia

RESUMEN Objetivo Establecer una nueva metodología predictiva de la proporción de dengue grave respecto al total anual de infectados de dengue por departamento con base en la teoría de la probabilidad. Métodos Con base en los datos anuales de número de infectados por departamentos en el periodo 2005 -2010, se calculó la proporción entre casos de dengue grave respecto al total para cada año, y se construyeron espacios de probabilidad que evalúan estos eventos en rangos de 0,5 y 0,3. Se determinaron conjuntos de rangos y se calculó probabilidad, desviación media cuadrática y la diferencia entre ellas. Se realizó una predicción del rango de infectados para el 2011 con el promedio aritmético de los valores de los últimos dos años. Resultados Se predijo correctamente el rango en el que se encuentra incluida la proporción de número de infectados de dengue grave sobre el total en cada departamento con una efectividad del 93,3% para el rango de 0,5 y de 86,7% para el de 0,3. Conclusión Se evidenció una autoorganización matemática espacio temporal en la proporción de dengue grave respecto al total que permite establecer predicciones de utilidad para la toma de decisiones de salud pública.(AU)

ABSTRACT Objective To establish a new predictive methodology to determine the proportion of severe dengue with respect to the annual total of dengue infections per department based on the probability theory. Materials and Methods Based on annual data on the number of infected persons by department in the period 2005-2010, the proportion of cases of severe dengue was calculated with respect to the total for each year. Probability spaces were constructed to evaluate these events in the ranges 0.5 and 0.3. Sets of ranges were determined and probability, mean square deviation and the difference between them were estimated. A prediction of the range of infected people for 2011 was made using the arithmetic average of the values of the last two years. Results The range in which the proportion of the number of people infected with severe dengue is included with respect to the total amount in each department was correctly predicted, with an effectiveness of 93.3% for the 0.5 range and 86.7% for the 0.3 range. Conclusion A mathematical spatial-temporal self-organization was found in the proportion of severe dengue with respect to the total, which allows establishing useful predictions for decision-making in public health.(AU)

RESUMO Objetivo Estabelecer uma nova metodologia preditiva para a proporção de dengue grave em relação ao dengue total anual infectado por departamento com base na teoria da probabilidade. Métodos Com base nos dados anuais do número de infectados por departamentos no período 2005-2010, a proporção entre os casos de dengue grave em relação ao total foi calculada para cada ano, e foram construídos espaços de probabilidade que avaliam esses eventos em intervalos de 0, 5 e 0,3. Conjuntos de intervalos foram determinados e a probabilidade, o desvio médio quadrático e a diferença entre eles foram calculados. A previsão da faixa de infectados para 2011 foi feita com a média aritmética dos valores dos últimos dois anos. Resultados A faixa na qual a proporção do número de infectados por dengue grave sobre o total está incluída em cada departamento foi corretamente prevista com uma eficácia de 93,3% para a faixa de 0,5 e 86,7% para aquela de 0,3. Conclusão Evidenciou-se uma auto-organização matemática espaço-temporal na proporção de dengue grave em relação ao total, o que permite estabelecer previsões úteis para a tomada de decisões em saúde pública.(AU)

[Probabilistic spatial-temporal prediction of total and severe epidemic of dengue in Colombia]. / Predicción espacio-temporal probabilista de la epidemia de dengue total y grave en Colombia.

OBJECTIVE: To establish a new predictive methodology to determine the proportion of severe dengue with respect to the annual total of dengue infections per department based on the probability theory. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Based on annual data on the number of infected persons by department in the period 2005-2010, the proportion of cases of severe dengue was calculated with respect to the total for each year. Probability spaces were constructed to evaluate these events in the ranges 0.5 and 0.3. Sets of ranges were determined and probability, mean square deviation and the difference between them were estimated. A prediction of the range of infected people for 2011 was made using the arithmetic average of the values of the last two years. RESULTS: The range in which the proportion of the number of people infected with severe dengue is included with respect to the total amount in each department was correctly predicted, with an effectiveness of 93.3% for the 0.5 range and 86.7% for the 0.3 range. CONCLUSION: A mathematical spatial-temporal self-organization was found in the proportion of severe dengue with respect to the total, which allows establishing useful predictions for decision-making in public health.

OBJETIVO: Establecer una nueva metodología predictiva de la proporción de dengue grave respecto al total anual de infectados de dengue por departamento con base en la teoría de la probabilidad. MÉTODOS: Con base en los datos anuales de número de infectados por departamentos en el periodo 2005 -2010, se calculó la proporción entre casos de dengue grave respecto al total para cada año, y se construyeron espacios de probabilidad que evalúan estos eventos en rangos de 0,5 y 0,3. Se determinaron conjuntos de rangos y se calculó probabilidad, desviación media cuadrática y la diferencia entre ellas. Se realizó una predicción del rango de infectados para el 2011 con el promedio aritmético de los valores de los últimos dos años. RESULTADOS: Se predijo correctamente el rango en el que se encuentra incluida la proporción de número de infectados de dengue grave sobre el total en cada departamento con una efectividad del 93,3% para el rango de 0,5 y de 86,7% para el de 0,3. CONCLUSIÓN: Se evidenció una autoorganización matemática espacio temporal en la proporción de dengue grave respecto al total que permite establecer predicciones de utilidad para la toma de decisiones de salud pública.

Pielonefritis enfisematosa en paciente con infección por virus de inmunodeficiencia humana: reporte de caso / Emphysematous pyelonephritis in patient with human immunodeficiency virus infection: A case report

La pielonefritis enfisematosa es una infección necrosante del parénquima renal que puede afectar los tejidos perirrenales y cuyo espectro de presentación clínica, por esa razón, es variable (choque séptico, acidosis metabólica, hiperglucemia, hipoglucemia, falla renal, delirio, entre otros); la mayoría de los casos se han informado en pacientes con diabetes mellitus o presencia de uropatía obstructiva. Reportamos el caso de una paciente joven no diabética quien presentó pielonefritis enfisematosa como condición clínica que lleva al diagnóstico inicial de infección por VIH, sin otras comorbilidades relacionadas, exitosamente tratada con manejo quirúrgico y antibioticoterapia. Se realizó una búsqueda sistemática de la literatura, en la cual no se ha informado esta enfermedad como manifestación clínica que lleve al diagnóstico inicial de la infección por VIH.

Emphysematous pyelonephritis is a necrotising infection of the renal parenchyma that may affect the perirenal tissue. Thus, the spectrum of clinical presentation is variable (septic shock, metabolic acidosis, hyperglycaemia, hypoglycaemia, renal failure, delirium); most cases have been reported in patients with diabetes mellitus or obstructive uropathy. We report the case of a young female patient without diabetes who presented emphysematous pyelonephritis as the condition that led to the diagnosis of HIV infection, without related comorbidities, and who was successfully treated with surgical and antibiotical therapy. A systematic search of the literature revealed that this disease as a condition leading to an initial diagnosis of HIV infection has not been previously reported.

Occupational exposure to blood borne pathogens among healthcare workers: a cross-sectional study of a registry in Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Occupational exposure to blood borne pathogens caused by percutaneous injuries or mucosal contamination is frequent among Healthcare Workers (HCW). METHODS: A cross-sectional analysis of HCW with an occupational exposure to blood reported to professional risk insurance agencies between 2009 and 2014 was performed. Comparisons between groups according to exposure level (mild, moderate, and severe) were evaluated. RESULTS: Two thousand, four hundred three reports were classified according exposure as mild 2.7 %, moderate 74.8 %, severe 21.9 %. Factors related: health sciences student with mild exposure events [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 11.91, 95 % CI 5.13-27.61, p < 0.00001], and physician with moderate exposure events (AOR 1.90, 95 % CI 1.17-3.07, p = 0.009). Factors inversely related: physician with severe exposure events (AOR 0.54, 95 % CI 0.32-0.91, p = 0.02) and health sciences student with moderate exposure events (AOR 0.08, 95 % CI 0.04-0.15, p < 0.00001). It was found an important relationship between severe events with infectious diseases specialist assessment, and follow-up adherence. Additionally, a case of Human Immunodeficiency Virus seroconversion was presented (0.0004 %), no other seroconversions were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Occupational exposure events must be managed according to established protocols, but adherence failure was evident with the exception of severe exposure cases. Thus, interventions to enhance occupational safety are required. Occupation must be considered as a risk factor during initial assessment of events.

Giant Molluscum Contagiosum in an HIV positive patient.

Molluscum Contagiosum (MC) is a skin infection caused by a double-stranded DNA virus of the family Poxviridae that replicates in the human epidermis, affecting mainly children and young sexually active adults and causing flesh colored papular lesions with central umbilication with an average size of 3-5mm, although atypical lesions that reach great size (Giant Molluscum Contagiosum), 10-15mm, can be seen in almost any immunodeficiency condition. We report the case of a 35 year old male patient with C3 HIV disease with an abdominal pathology associated to skin lesions predominantly in the forehead and scalp that reached sizes over 5mm, diagnosed as Giant Molluscum Contagiosum by skin biopsies.